Thunderstorms Will Rumble Across New Mexico - Some Will Be Severe!
Holloman AFB Radar Snapshot.
At 7:51 AM MDT This Morning.
An early start to toady's thunderstorm activity as a few isolated thunderstorms are popping up over the northern Tularosa Basin...moving off to the northeast. Additional development will continue throughout the day. Initially these thunderstorms will favor areas west of the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains and generally will be moving off to the northeast.
By late this afternoon or early this evening a line of thunderstorms or even a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) is forecast to develop and move across Southeastern New Mexico...generally moving from west to east or from northwest to southeast. A risk of damaging thunderstorm wind gusts may accompany this large complex of thunderstorms as they roll through.
By this afternoon scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast for the area bounded by the yellow shaded region in the SPC Severe Weather Outlook below. Any discrete thunderstorm will have the potential to become a supercell thunderstorm and produce large to very large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning, locally heavy rainfall along with localized flash flooding. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible.
Valid At 6 PM MDT This Sunday Afternoon.
Severe Weather Outlook - Today.
Severe Weather Outlook - Today.
Update At 11:45 AM MDT.
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Sun Jun 03 2018 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms, with large hail and wind damage the main threats, is this afternoon and evening across parts of New Mexico into west/southwest Texas. Other more isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the Gulf Coast States and near the Appalachians as well as the northern Rockies. ...New Mexico into west/southwest Texas... A shortwave trough will continue to spread northeastward over the southern Rockies and reach the south-central High Plains late tonight. Some thunderstorms are already occurring this morning across northern into central New Mexico. A very moist air mass for the region and gradual heating/destabilization this afternoon will allow for additional development over interior/west-central New Mexico, and by late afternoon across south-central New Mexico/nearby Mexico into far west Texas. Strong vertical shear (40+ kt effective shear) will support some supercells capable of large hail, some severe-caliber wind gusts, and perhaps even a tornado. It still appears plausible, if not likely, that storms will merge and grow upscale and spread generally eastward into west/southwest Texas during the evening into the overnight with the possibility of a continued damaging wind risk along with some hail.
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Sun Jun 03 2018 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms, with large hail and wind damage the main threats, is this afternoon and evening across parts of New Mexico. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a progressive pattern will continue over much of the contiguous U.S., except for the anticyclone anchored across portions of northern MX and the Big Bend region of west TX. Mean ridging that extends north-northwestward, up the Rockies into Canada, will be penetrated by a well-developed shortwave trough now evident in moisture-channel imagery over AZ and southern UT. This trough should eject east-northeastward to the southern Rockies, extending from south-central CO to near ELP by 00Z. By 12Z, the trough (with some convective vorticity supplementation likely) should extend from the central High Plains southward across the OK/TX Panhandles to the TX South Plains region. East of the mean ridge, a strong synoptic trough will extend southeastward from a weakening 500-mb cyclone over northern SK, through an intensifying low crossing Lake Superior and adjoining northern ON. The southward extension of the trough will cross the upper Great Lakes today and reach inland NY and PA by the end of the period. Meanwhile, as a cyclone moves slowly eastward toward northern parts of the BC coast, a series of shortwaves will eject northeastward from its basal synoptic trough across the northwestern U.S. The strongest of those -- now evident west of WA/OR around 137W -- will move ashore around 00Z. This perturbation then should deamplify and eject northeastward across the Canadian Rockies late overnight. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front, extending from an occlusion triple point over eastern IN southwestward across AR and central TX to south-central and northwestern NM. By 00Z, this front should reach western NC, central AL, central LA, and southwest TX, becoming quasistationary northwestward across southern and northwestern NM. By 12Z the front should reach eastern NC, the LA/MS Gulf coast, and south-central TX, becoming ill-defined amidst more intensively baroclinic convective outflow processes over NM and portions of west TX. ...NM, west TX... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop, initially in two somewhat separate regimes that may merge over central NM as they evolve upscale; 1. Midday or even midmorning through afternoon over northwestern into west-central NM. A narrower favorable thermodynamic sector here under colder air and stronger large-scale forcing aloft will render the threat somewhat earlier and perhaps shorter-lived compared to farther southeast. Supercells and merging lines of convection are expected, with all severe types possible. 2. Afternoon and evening, with storm initiation on higher terrain either side of the Rio Grande Valley and southward over Chihuahua. Early high-based supercell and multicell modes should offer wind/hail threats before potentially evolving upscale into an evening/overnight MCS activity that will offer mainly a wind threat. Strong consensus in available synoptic and CAM guidance for this scenario compels an enlargement of wind probabilities over portions of southern NM and west TX. In both regimes, a net easterly flow component in and north of the frontal zone will aid storm development, longevity and severity today through mass convergence, greater deep shear, enlarged low-level shear/hodographs, stronger storm-relative flow in low levels, upslope flow on eastern faces of ranges, and moisture advection. A roughly northwest/southeast-oriented axis of favorable moisture should take shape across NM, with surface dew points 40s to low 50s and 1.0-1.4-inch PW, amidst strengthening heating with southward extent. A corridor of preconvective MLCAPE roughly 1000-1500 J/kg should develop, narrowing from southern into western NM. In addition to the backed near-surface winds, a tightening mid/upper height gradient and related enhancements to winds aloft will contribute further to favorable shear. Forecast soundings reasonably depict 45-55-kt effective shear and affective SRH 200-400 J/kg in the narrow CAPE plume over west-central/northwestern NM, favoring relatively lowered LCL and the potential for supercells and even a tornado or two as long as storms can remain discrete within surface-based buoyancy. Meanwhile, hotter diurnal surface conditions, higher LCL, and more deeply mixed boundary layers are likely over southern NM and west TX, persisting into evening even as a strengthening, confluent LLJ develops into the region to aid storm-relative/inflow-wind vectors. ...Ohio Valley to Southeast... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon as diurnal heating minimizes MLCINH near the cold front, and along prefrontal boundaries such as outflows, sea breezes and differential-heating zones. Isolated damaging gusts are possible, and marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out. The favorable prefrontal sector will narrow with northward extent ahead of the front, exhibiting 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and largely unidirectional vertical wind profiles from the OH Valley through TN, with MLCAPE increasing to the 2000-3000 J/kg range across portions of AL and 3000-4000 J/kg over southeast TX, west of a residual plume of clouds/precip over portions of LA. Slight strengthening of deep-layer speed shear with northward extent will be offset somewhat by increasing buoyancy southward and westward (away from area of antecedent clouds/precip). Hodographs should remain relatively small in low levels. Especially over parts of the Southeast, mesoscale concentrations of wind-damage potential may develop under and downshear from where clusters of convection can form in response to strong diurnal heating, rich low-level moisture, and processes/interactions of various boundaries. Given the mesoscale to storm-scale (i.e., cold-pool process) dependencies, will leave the broad-brushed 5% for now, subject to more-focused upgrading as boundary/convective trends warrant. ...Interior Northwest/northern Rockies... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon into evening, initially over eastern OR, and move rapidly northeastward across the outlook area into this evening, offering the potential for isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail. Lower-elevation surface dew points generally in the 40s F and steep low/middle-level lapse rates -- the latter including very well-mixed boundary layers -- will support the development of MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg in the preconvective environment. Strong mid/upper-level flow will contribute to deep-layer speed shear and 30-40 kt effective shear magnitudes. Limiting factors will include lack of both more robust buoyancy and low-level shear. ..Edwards/Marsh.. 06/03/2018
NWS NDFD 7-Day Temperature Forecast.
(Carlsbad, New Mexico).
GFS 10-Day Forecast.
We get a reprieve today from our recent triple digit heat wave. Maybe Monday too as most of the local area will only see highs in the upper 90's. Back to the furnace by Tuesday and in fact for the next week to ten days with high temps again forecast to remain at or above 100º.
Valid Today Through 6 AM MDT Monday.
GFS Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid Today Through 6 AM MDT Monday.
NAM-WRF Total Rainfall Forecast.
As is usually the case each computer forecast model has a different idea about where the heaviest rains will fall. This is pretty much to be expected but the overall idea is that pockets of locally heavy rainfall (1" - 3") will occur today into tonight over much of the local area. Not everyone will see rainfall totals this high though. Case in point a couple of weeks ago when the Artesia/Atoka areas received anywhere from .50" to 3.00" of rain from thunderstorms and we got nothing here in Carlsbad. Unless you lived in the Otis area which got anywhere from 1" to 2" in places. Hopefully with the prospect of a large complex of thunderstorms moving through this evening the rains will be widespread.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!