Thunderstorms Will Rumble Across New Mexico - Some Will Be Severe!

Holloman AFB Radar Snapshot.
 At 7:51 AM MDT This Morning.

An early start to toady's thunderstorm activity as a few isolated thunderstorms are popping up over the northern Tularosa Basin...moving off to the northeast. Additional development will continue throughout the day. Initially these thunderstorms will favor areas west of the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains and generally will be moving off to the northeast.

 By late this afternoon or early this evening a line of thunderstorms or even a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) is forecast to develop and move across Southeastern New Mexico...generally moving from west to east or from northwest to southeast. A risk of damaging thunderstorm wind gusts may accompany this large complex of thunderstorms as they roll through. 

By this afternoon scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast for the area bounded by the yellow shaded region in the SPC Severe Weather Outlook below. Any discrete thunderstorm will have the potential to become a supercell thunderstorm and produce large to very large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning, locally heavy rainfall along with localized flash flooding. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible. 

Valid At 6 PM MDT This Sunday Afternoon.

Severe Weather Outlook - Today.

Severe Weather Outlook - Today.

Update At 11:45 AM MDT.

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1159 AM CDT Sun Jun 03 2018

   Valid 031630Z - 041200Z


   The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms, with large hail and
   wind damage the main threats, is this afternoon and evening across
   parts of New Mexico into west/southwest Texas. Other more isolated
   severe thunderstorms are possible across the Gulf Coast States and
   near the Appalachians as well as the northern Rockies.

   ...New Mexico into west/southwest Texas...
   A shortwave trough will continue to spread northeastward over the
   southern Rockies and reach the south-central High Plains late
   tonight. Some thunderstorms are already occurring this morning
   across northern into central New Mexico. A very moist air mass for
   the region and gradual heating/destabilization this afternoon will
   allow for additional development over interior/west-central New
   Mexico, and by late afternoon across south-central New Mexico/nearby
   Mexico into far west Texas. Strong vertical shear (40+ kt effective
   shear) will support some supercells capable of large hail, some
   severe-caliber wind gusts, and perhaps even a tornado. It still
   appears plausible, if not likely, that storms will merge and grow
   upscale and spread generally eastward into west/southwest Texas
   during the evening into the overnight with the possibility of a
   continued damaging wind risk along with some hail.

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0757 AM CDT Sun Jun 03 2018

   Valid 031300Z - 041200Z


   The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms, with large hail and
   wind damage the main threats, is this afternoon and evening across
   parts of New Mexico.

   In mid/upper levels, a progressive pattern will continue over much
   of the contiguous U.S., except for the anticyclone anchored across
   portions of northern MX and the Big Bend region of west TX.  Mean
   ridging that extends north-northwestward, up the Rockies into
   Canada, will be penetrated by a well-developed shortwave trough now
   evident in moisture-channel imagery over AZ and southern UT.  This
   trough should eject east-northeastward to the southern Rockies,
   extending from south-central CO to near ELP by 00Z.  By 12Z, the
   trough (with some convective vorticity supplementation likely)
   should extend from the central High Plains southward across the
   OK/TX Panhandles to the TX South Plains region. 

   East of the mean ridge, a strong synoptic trough will extend
   southeastward from a weakening 500-mb cyclone over northern SK,
   through an intensifying low crossing Lake Superior and adjoining
   northern ON.  The southward extension of the trough will cross the
   upper Great Lakes today and reach inland NY and PA by the end of the
   period.  Meanwhile, as a cyclone moves slowly eastward toward
   northern parts of the BC coast, a series of shortwaves will eject
   northeastward from its basal synoptic trough across the northwestern
   U.S.  The strongest of those -- now evident west of WA/OR around
   137W -- will move ashore around 00Z.  This perturbation then should
   deamplify and eject northeastward across the Canadian Rockies late

   At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front, extending from an
   occlusion triple point over eastern IN southwestward across AR and
   central TX to south-central and northwestern NM.  By 00Z, this front
   should reach western NC, central AL, central LA, and southwest TX,
   becoming quasistationary northwestward across southern and
   northwestern NM.  By 12Z the front should reach eastern NC, the
   LA/MS Gulf coast, and south-central TX, becoming ill-defined amidst
   more intensively baroclinic convective outflow processes over NM and
   portions of west TX. 

   ...NM, west TX...
   Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop, initially in two
   somewhat separate regimes that may merge over central NM as they
   evolve upscale;

   1. Midday or even midmorning through afternoon over northwestern
   into west-central NM.  A narrower favorable thermodynamic sector
   here under colder air and stronger large-scale forcing aloft will
   render the threat somewhat earlier and perhaps shorter-lived
   compared to farther southeast.  Supercells and merging lines of
   convection are expected, with all severe types possible. 
   2.  Afternoon and evening, with storm initiation on higher terrain
   either side of the Rio Grande Valley and southward over Chihuahua. 
   Early high-based supercell and multicell modes should offer
   wind/hail threats before potentially evolving upscale into an
   evening/overnight MCS activity that will offer mainly a wind threat.
    Strong consensus in available synoptic and CAM guidance for this
   scenario compels an enlargement of wind probabilities over portions
   of southern NM and west TX. 

   In both regimes, a net easterly flow component in and north of the
   frontal zone will aid storm development, longevity and severity
   today through mass convergence, greater deep shear, enlarged
   low-level shear/hodographs, stronger storm-relative flow in low
   levels, upslope flow on eastern faces of ranges, and moisture
   advection.  A roughly northwest/southeast-oriented axis of favorable
   moisture should take shape across NM, with surface dew points 40s to
   low 50s and 1.0-1.4-inch PW, amidst strengthening heating with
   southward extent.  A corridor of preconvective MLCAPE roughly
   1000-1500 J/kg should develop, narrowing from southern into western

   In addition to the backed near-surface winds, a tightening mid/upper
   height gradient and related enhancements to winds aloft will
   contribute further to favorable shear.  Forecast soundings
   reasonably depict 45-55-kt effective shear and affective SRH 200-400
   J/kg in the narrow CAPE plume over west-central/northwestern NM,
   favoring relatively lowered LCL and the potential for supercells and
   even a tornado or two as long as storms can remain discrete within
   surface-based buoyancy.  Meanwhile, hotter diurnal surface
   conditions, higher LCL, and more deeply mixed boundary layers are
   likely over southern NM and west TX, persisting into evening even as
   a strengthening, confluent LLJ develops into the region to aid
   storm-relative/inflow-wind vectors.

   ...Ohio Valley to Southeast...
   Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop
   this afternoon as diurnal heating minimizes MLCINH near the cold
   front, and along prefrontal boundaries such as outflows, sea breezes
   and differential-heating zones.  Isolated damaging gusts are
   possible, and marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out. 

   The favorable prefrontal sector will narrow with northward extent
   ahead of the front, exhibiting 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and largely
   unidirectional vertical wind profiles from the OH Valley through TN,
   with MLCAPE increasing to the 2000-3000 J/kg range across portions
   of AL and 3000-4000 J/kg over southeast TX, west of a residual plume
   of clouds/precip over portions of LA.  Slight strengthening of
   deep-layer speed shear with northward extent will be offset somewhat
   by increasing buoyancy southward and westward (away from area of
   antecedent clouds/precip).  Hodographs should remain relatively
   small in low levels.

   Especially over parts of the Southeast, mesoscale concentrations of
   wind-damage potential may develop under and downshear from where
   clusters of convection can form in response to strong diurnal
   heating, rich low-level moisture, and processes/interactions of
   various boundaries.  Given the mesoscale to storm-scale (i.e.,
   cold-pool process) dependencies, will leave the broad-brushed 5% for
   now, subject to more-focused upgrading as boundary/convective trends

   ...Interior Northwest/northern Rockies...
   Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms should develop this
   afternoon into evening, initially over eastern OR, and move rapidly
   northeastward across the outlook area into this evening, offering
   the potential for isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail.
   Lower-elevation surface dew points generally in the 40s F and steep
   low/middle-level lapse rates -- the latter including very well-mixed
   boundary layers -- will support the development of MLCAPE to around
   500 J/kg in the preconvective environment.  Strong mid/upper-level
   flow will contribute to deep-layer speed shear and 30-40 kt
   effective shear magnitudes.  Limiting factors will include lack of
   both more robust buoyancy and low-level shear.

   ..Edwards/Marsh.. 06/03/2018



NWS NDFD 7-Day Temperature Forecast.
(Carlsbad, New Mexico).

GFS 10-Day Forecast.

We get a reprieve today from our recent triple digit heat wave. Maybe Monday too as most of the local area will only see highs in the upper 90's. Back to the furnace by Tuesday and in fact for the next week to ten days with high temps again forecast to remain at or above 100ยบ. 

Valid Today Through 6 AM MDT Monday.

GFS Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid Today Through 6 AM MDT Monday.

NAM-WRF Total Rainfall Forecast.

As is usually the case each computer forecast model has a different idea about where the heaviest rains will fall. This is pretty much to be expected but the overall idea is that pockets of locally heavy rainfall (1" - 3") will occur today into tonight over much of the local area. Not everyone will see rainfall totals this high though. Case in point a couple of weeks ago when the Artesia/Atoka areas received anywhere from .50" to 3.00" of rain from thunderstorms and we got nothing here in Carlsbad. Unless you lived in the Otis area which got anywhere from 1" to 2" in places. Hopefully with the prospect of a large complex of thunderstorms moving through this evening the rains will be widespread. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!


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