3:12 PM MDT - 6-13-2018.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 108.9 West. Bud is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. Bud is forecast to accelerate northward on Thursday and continue that motion into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur late Thursday and move over the Gulf of California late on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Although slow weakening is expected during the next day or so, Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur late Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
Former Hurricane Bud has peaked in strength and is weakening and has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm as of this Wednesday afternoon. Bud is forecast to continue to weaken as he crawls northward over the next several days. By around midnight Saturday night the remnants of Bud in the form of a Tropical Depression is forecast to be located very near the Southwestern New Mexico Bootheel.
Remnant moisture from Bud is forecast to begin impacting the local area beginning Friday night into this weekend and possibly the first part of next week. Just how much of an impact and how much rain is still not clear as of this writing Wednesday afternoon. The forecast models are not playing very nice and have varied amounts of rainfall over different locations of the state this upcoming weekend.
Valid At 6 AM MDT Monday, June 18, 2018.
European (ECMWF) 10-Day Temp & Rainfall Forecasts.
Current forecast model trends produce the heaviest rains over the western and northern halves of New Mexico from Friday into Monday morning. Pockets of heavy rain also appear possible in Southeastern New Mexico. I'm not sold on any one model solution yet so this (in my opinion) is still up in the air. Anyway relief is on the way in the form of much cooler temps and a decent chance of widespread wetting rains over the area over the next week.
Many of us will go from weeks of temps at or above 100º, and months of drought, to heavy rains along with the possibility of flash flooding. New Mexico's weather performing "opera style."
I topped out at 107º yesterday and Monday here at our home in Carlsbad so I'm ready for a break from the heat. Throw in the possibility of another southward moving cold front arriving by around next Tuesday or so and its easy to see why the models want to light up the area with heavy rains. Cool air slamming into tropical moisture...yea that's always fun to deal with.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!