Current Weather 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

2020 To End Colder With Some Snow For New Mexico.

December 27, 2020.

Sadly another Christmas with no meaningful snow cover on the ground in Cloudcroft, New Mexico (8,751'). I took this photo Sunday afternoon just east of Cloudcroft looking up from the base of the Ski run. Although the ski run is currently closed due to the lack of snow the tubing area is open for business...they are making snow. 


Valid At 11 AM MST Sunday Morning.

GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Tuesday Afternoon.


5 AM MST Monday Morning.


5 PM MST Monday Evening.


5 AM MST Tuesday Morning.


5 PM MST Tuesday Evening.




Valid Sunday Night - Wednesday Afternoon.

NWD Precipitation Forecasts.


Valid Sunday Night - Wednesday Afternoon.


Monday.


Tuesday.


Wednesday.


New Year's Eve.


New Years Day.


NWS NDFD Low-Temperature Forecast.

Thursday Morning.



Next Winter Storm Taking Aim On NM.

Our next inbound winter storm to affect New Mexico and nearby areas will arrive in the Four Corners area of the state by Monday around sunset. It will bring a chance for lowland rain showers and snow showers across parts of the state with mountain snows. As of this writing Sunday evening, this storm does not appear worth getting too worked up over. It will be a fairly fast mover and not hang around long enough to have more meaningful impacts. And as the case has been so far this winter surface and mid-level moisture will be limited so the storm won't have a lot to work with.

A positively tilted short wave trough of low pressure at the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere is forecast to dive southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into the Central Baja, California Region by Tuesday night. Then the models track it south of the state into northern Mexico before ejecting it northeastward into central Texas on Thursday. 

Most of the time I'm saying that our mid-upper level storms need to dig a little further to the south and west to impact SE NM with rain and snow. This time this storm will be skipping along too fast and too far to the south to affect us.

Meanwhile, a surface cold front will swing southeast through the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Colder temperatures will follow the frontal passage beginning Wednesday. 

Parts of Southeastern New Mexico might see a few light rain showers Monday night and maybe again Tuesday evening. The best chances for precipitation will be near the NM/TX State line and over the Sacramento Mountains. Otherwise, it's going to be another missed opportunity for rain or snow locally. 

Snow levels are forecast to drop down to around 5,000' Tuesday night. A couple inches of snow are forecast for the higher elevations of the Sacramento Mountains from this storm. 

New Year's Eve morning is forecast to see our coldest lowest temperatures. Widespread teens across the Southeastern Plains and single digits in the Capitan and Sacramento Mountains. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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Dangerous Sunspot AR3112

Dangerous Sunspot AR3112
WHEN WILL THE NEXT CME ARRIVE? A magnetic filament in the sun's southrn hemisphere erupted on Oct. 4th, hurling part of itself into space. The emerging CME will pass mostly to the south of our planet, but a fraction could graze Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 8th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for minor geomagnetic storms and auroras on that date.

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