Indian Summer Exits Left Stage - Fall & Winter Returns.
South Of Cloudcroft, NM.
(For Monday Nov 6th & Tuesday Nov 7th).
ECMWF Total Precipitation Forecast.
ECMWF Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid Wednesday Through 5 PM MST Friday, Nov 10, 2023.
ECMWF Surface Map Forecast.
Indian Summer Exits Left Stage - Winter Returns.
A week ago we experienced our first widespread freeze. Typically after a first freeze a quick warm-up will occur, often with above normal temps. This has been the case for the past several days.
When this occurs it is often referred to as Indian Summer. An Indian summer is a period of unseasonably warm, dry weather that sometimes occurs in autumn in temperate regions of the northern hemisphere. Several sources describe a true Indian summer as not occurring until after the first frost, or more specifically the first "killing" frost.
High temps topped out in the mid to upper 80's across southeastern New Mexico yesterday.
Near record to record high temps will once again break out across parts of New Mexico and nearby areas this afternoon. Locally highs in the southeastern plains are forecast to climb up into the mid to upper 80's. A few spots may flirt with 90F.
Highs across the Sacramento, Capitan, and Guadalupe mountains will range from the mid to upper 50's above 8,000' to the low to mid 70's near 7,000'.
Very warm and dry conditions are forecast today into Wednesday. Southwest to westerly winds will increase this afternoon and continue into Wednesday ahead of an approaching Pacific cold front from the west. Winds aloft will strengthen over the state in response to an approaching mid-upper level storm Wednesday into Friday.
Southwesterly to westerly winds will increase to sustained speeds today across the southeastern plains and nearby mountains to 15 to 25 mph with gusts near 35 to 45 mph. Higher gusts near 55 mph will occur across the higher peaks such as the Ski Apache area.
A quick transition back to more fall-like weather begins Wednesday afternoon and night across the state from west to east as the cold front moves eastward. Much colder temps and gusty winds will accompany the frontal passage.
High temps behind the cold front across the southeastern plains Thursday into Saturday will only be in the 50's if not a little cooler. Highs in the Sacramento, Capitan, and Guadalupe mountains will be mostly in the 40's. Temps will remain below seasonal normals Thursday into the first of next week. Welcome back fall.
Scattered rain showers will break out over parts of the northern, central, and eastern sections of the state on Thursday as low and mid level moisture increases. Rain will change over to or mix with snow in parts of these areas early Thursday morning. Currently the mountains have the best chances for seeing accumulating snowfall. The computer forecast models haven't come into good agreement yet on how this is all going to play out so there may be changes in some of your local forecasts.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.