Funnel Cloud Imposter.
Looking West From Dunken In SW Chaves County.
GFS 500 Millibar (18,000' MSL) Analysis.
National Blend Of Models 5-Day Total Rainfall Forecast.
NWS NDFD 4-Day Total Rainfall Forecast.
GFS Forecast High Temps - Carlsbad, New Mexico.
ECMWF Forecast High Temps - Carlsbad, New Mexico.
Near-To-Record Heat & T-Storms Return For Some.
High pressure is centered over the state today at the mid-levels of the atmosphere. This means the heat ridge is right on top of us. Near-to-record daily high temps are possible for parts of the state today. Especially across southern and southeastern New Mexico and nearby West Texas.
Local record high temps for June 6th include:
Carlsbad NWS Climate Co-Op Station 111 in 2010.
Carlsbad Airport 111 in 1996.
Artesia NWS Climate Co-Op Station 109 in 2010.
Hope NWS Climate Co-Op Station 108 in 2010.
Carlsbad Caverns Natl Park NWS Climate Co-Op Station 108 in 2010.
Roswell Airport 106 in 1980.
Hobbs NWS Climate Co-Op Station 105 in 2014.
Tatum NWS Climate Co-Op Station 105 in 2010.
Elk NWS Climate Co-Op Station 98 in 1996.
Ruidoso NWS Climate Co-Op Station 94 in 2010.
Cloudcroft NWS Climate Co-Op Station 82 in 1911.
Mountain Park NWS Climate Co-Op Station 92 in 1996.
Alamogordo NWS Climate Co-Op Station 103 in 1996.
Hit & Miss High Based Mostly Dry T-Storms.
A few widely scattered hit-and-miss high-based and mostly dry thunderstorms are forecast for the local area today into Saturday.
The Roswell area has a 20% of thunderstorms Saturday night which ramps up to a 40% to 50% chance Sunday into Monday.
The Artesia and Carlsbad areas have a 10% chance for thunderstorms on Friday and a 20% chance on Sunday.
The Cloudcroft area has a 30% to 40% chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday into Saturday night which ramps up to a 60% chance on Sunday.
The Ruidoso area has a 20% of showers and thunderstorms today. A 30% to 50% chance Friday into Saturday night and a 70% on Sunday.
Dry lightning strikes along with Virga bombsVirga bombs producing very gusty and erratic thunderstorm wind gusts will be a concern today into Saturday over parts of the area.
By Sunday low-level moisture and instability are forecast to increase especially over the Sacramento mountains and to our north across the eastern plains. Locally heavy rainfall along with localized flash flooding will be possible in some spots. Of particular concern will be the burn scars in the Sacramento mountains and the northern and central mountains of the state.
Southeastern New Mexico will be on the southern extent of the beneficial rainfall that is forecast to fall Sunday into the first of next week. This could shift further south into our neck of the woods. Even if it does we will only see temporary relief from the severe to extreme drought conditions. The mountains should fare better along with cooler temps which hopefully will dampen the fire concerns.
Long-range forecasts keep southeastern New Mexico at or above 100F over the next week or so. But rain-producing thunderstorms should they occur could help dampen these temps.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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