A Few Severe T-Storms Near The NM/TX State Line - Into The Oven Next Week.

June 1, 2024.
Low Precipitation (LP) Supercell T-Storm.
Looking Southwest From Elk - T-Storm Was Just South Of Mayhill.





3-Day Rainfall Totals.
(As Of 8 AM MDT This Morning).









New Mexico CoCoRaHS 72-Hour Rainfall Totals. 

Long-Range Temperature & Rainfall Outlooks.

June 2024.



Summer Outlook.
(June - July - August).







One Last Shot At Rain Today For Some Then Into The Oven.

Welcome to the beginning of the meteorological summer (June-July-August). Unless something unforeseen occurs it appears we are in for another very hot and dry summer over most of the area. 

A few scattered thunderstorms dotted the landscape yesterday afternoon. I chased a low precipitation (LP) supercell thunderstorm south of Mayhill to the west of Dunken yesterday afternoon. It was borderline severe but to my knowledge never produced anything severe...or at least that has been reported. 

Locations along and east of the New Mexico/Texas state line will be near the Storm Prediction Centers Slight Risk Category this afternoon and evening. This means some of you may see a severe thunderstorm or two. Capable of large to very large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 70 mph, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, and perhaps an isolated tornado. 

After today high pressure dominates the state and region meaning a week of hot and dry weather. High temps this week in southeast New Mexico are forecast to range from 100F to 105F. 

This morning's run of the U.S. GFS forecast model falls off the deep end with its forecast high temps for southeastern New Mexico over the next two weeks. The longer out you go in a forecast period the less reliable the model forecasts are. It's way too early to buy into these extreme forecast high temps locally. However, the trend is towards hotter than normal temps so we shall see what plays out. 

Our long-range temps for June and the summer (June-July-August) are calling for a hot and dry summer. 

 Locally some of the heavier 24-hour rainfall totals include:

A Personal Weather Station (PWS) west of Mayhill .61". 
A Personal Weather Station (PWS) west of Mayhill .39".
The Mayhill Raws north of Mayhill .14". 
The Dunken Raws .09"
A Personal Weather Station (PWS) in Weed .07". 
The Forest Service HADS northeast of Ruidoso .02". 

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

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