Severe T-Storms Today - Heating Up (100+F) Next Week.

May 24, 2024.

Slurry Bombing The Blue 2 Forest Fire.

Near Bonito Lake - Northwest Of Ruidoso, NM. 

Blog Updated at 10:32 AM MDT Saturday, June 1, 2024. 

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook Today.

(Click On The Link Above For The Latest Update).

NWS Midland Severe Weather Outlook Today.

NWS Albuquerque Severe Weather Outlook Today.

Heating Up Next Week.

ECMWF Forecast High Temps Next Week.

Friday, June 7, 2024.

Severe T-Storms Today Into This Evening.

Outflow boundaries from yesterday's afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity to our north and east helped shove the dryline west overnight. As of 9 AM MDT this Saturday morning dew point temps were in the 50's to near 60 from the Sierra Blanca Regional Airport eastward out onto the eastern and southeastern plains. 

A decent setup for scattered severe thunderstorms some of which will be of the supercell type will occur today into tonight east of the central mountain chain. Including most of northeastern, eastern, and southeastern New Mexico. 

Mid-level (ML) cape values of 3,000+ j/kg will be in place along with effective bulk wind shear values of 40 to knots, and long/straight hodographs east of the mountains. The dryline is forecast to sharpen up this afternoon into this evening. Splitting supercell thunderstorms will be possible with storms heading east and southeast off of or near the mountains. 

Very large hail and possibly giant hail (baseball size or larger), damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 70 mph, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, locally heavy rainfall along with localized flash flooding will be the primary concerns associated with any thunderstorm that becomes severe. 

June starts off with a heatwave next week with forecast high temps ranging from near 100F to near 108F across parts of southeastern New Mexico. Next Friday current appears to be the hottest day of the week. Long-range forecasts hint at more of the same...hot and dry.

NWS Midland Storm Damage Survey.

595
NWUS54 KMAF 011151
LSRMAF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
651 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     Tornado          1 W Warfield            31.92N 102.23W
05/30/2024                   Midland            TX   NWS Storm Survey

            Corrects previous tornado report from 2 S
            Midland International. This tornado likely
            began as a weak uncondensed tornado near
            Highway 80 and FM 1788, causing minor damage
            as it tracked towards I-20 and FM1788. The
            tornado was then observed crossing I-20
            becoming a dusty circulation causing damage
            to power poles, buildings, and RVs near
            CR1270. NWS employees were able to see this
            tornado from the office to the south of I-20
            around this time. A strong RFD surge
            overtook the circulation after this time.
            Reports indicate the tornado may have
            dissipated but mostly likely it became
            shrounded in rain and dust as a very intense
            couplet quickly developed as the circulation
            moved south-southwest. At its peak, a VROT
            of 90-100 knots was observed on KMAF radar
            data. Limited damage indicators existed
            during its peak intensity. Minor damage was
            reported to the southeast after this time as
            the circulation slowly weakened and
            broadened in size, potentialy becoming a
            larger multi-vortex circulation. This
            tornado likely reached its peak width of
            approximately a mile wide at this time. This
            tornado likely dissipated a short time later
            to the southwest as the TDS dissipated.

0516 PM     Tornado          2 SE Midland Internatio 31.93N 102.17W
05/30/2024                   Midland            TX   NWS Employee

            NWS employees spotted a secondary smaller
            and weaker circulation to the east of the
            strengthening Warfield tornado. The NWS
            survey team was unable to find damge in the
            area, as this weak satellite tornado likely
            occurred over open terrain. This tornado was
            therefore rated EF-Unknown. Time and
            location of this brief tornado are estimated
            from radar data and reports.

0640 PM     Tornado          14 W Midkiff            31.66N 102.07W
05/30/2024                   Midland            TX   NWS Storm Survey

            Corrects previous tornado report from 8 ESE
            Pleasant Farms. This tornado was reported to
            have begun as a large tornado very near the
            Midland/Upton County line by multiple
            observers. This tornado began to move
            towards the west, growing in size and
            increasing in intensity as it caused EF-3
            damage to vegetation and heavy oil
            equipment. Ground scouring was noted along
            this portion of the damage path. The tornado
            may have been nearly stationary for a short
            time before beginning to move back to the
            west, continuing to cause damage to
            vegetation, power poles, and oil equipment.
            Eventually, the tornado began to dissiapte
            as it continued towards the west-southwest
            as a shrinking cone tornado before ending.


&&

$$

547
NWUS54 KMAF 010837
LSRMAF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
337 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     9 S Warfield            31.79N 102.19W
05/30/2024                   Midland            TX   NWS Storm Survey

            NWS Storm Survey found broken and leaning
            power poles near the intersection of FM1788
            and Dora Roberts Road. Time is estimated
            from radar.

0616 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NNE Midland Internati 31.98N 102.16W
05/30/2024                   Midland            TX   Public

            Received numerous reports of damage in the
            Legends Park subdivision. Cars had windows
            broken and heavy dents. Solar panels were
            damaged. Roofs and windows to homes were
            also damaged. This was likely caused by a
            combination of large hail and damaging
            winds. Time is estimated from radar.

0720 PM     Flash Flood      3 SSE Warfield          31.88N 102.21W
05/30/2024                   Midland            TX   Public

            Public relayed photo of standing water in a
            home near CR150.


&&

$$

369
NWUS54 KMAF 010753
LSRMAF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
253 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1242 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 W Tarzan              32.31N 102.01W
06/01/2024  M61 MPH          Martin             TX   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 84 2WNW Tarzan Tarzan/Martin
            County.

1137 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 N Seminole            32.81N 102.65W
05/31/2024                   Gaines             TX   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Seminole FD reports business signs blown
            down north of Seminole along Highway 385.
            Time is estimated from radar.

1141 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Seagraves               32.94N 102.56W
05/31/2024                   Gaines             TX   Broadcast Media

            Photo shows carport destroyed. Time is
            estimated from radar.

1145 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Welch                   32.93N 102.13W
05/31/2024  M64 MPH          Dawson             TX   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 96 WELCH Dawson County.

1218 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 ESE Gail              32.76N 101.41W
06/01/2024  M60 MPH          Borden             TX   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 26 Gail 2SE.

0927 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 N Tatum               33.33N 103.32W
05/31/2024                   Lea                NM   Broadcast Media

            Media relayed a photo of a wind turbine
            north of Tatum on fire. This is likely the
            result of severe wind gusts. Time is
            estimated from radar.

0939 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Tatum                   33.26N 103.32W
05/31/2024                   Lea                NM   Emergency Mngr

            Lea County EM reported downed powerlines and
            broken skylights from severe winds and hail
            in Tatum. Time is estimated from radar.

1055 PM     Flash Flood      Tatum                   33.26N 103.32W
05/31/2024                   Lea                NM   Public

            Report from mPING: Street/road flooding;
            Street/road closed; Vehicles stranded.


&&

$$

Lincoln County Sheriff's Office 

  · 

ment has been added to the Blue 2 Fire

Fire Information Phone Number: (575) 386-5077; open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

Media Phone Number: 575-386-5108; open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

Acres: 7,457

Start Date: May 16, 2024

Location: White Mountain Wilderness approximately 8 miles North of Ruidoso

Personnel: 785

Cause: Lightning

Containment: 5%

Fuels: Timber (litter and understory)

Resources: 17 cuadrillas | 31 vehículos de bomberos | 8 helicópteros | 9 buldóceres | 12 licitaciones de agua

Highlights: Firefighters achieved 5% containment on the southern side of Soldier Mountain. Ground crews are being supported by air resources to address areas of heat near the fires edge. The road closure on State Road 37 from State Road 48 to U.S. Route 380 was lifted by New Mexico Police around 12:30 pm yesterday. The fire danger level has also been increased to “Very High” and Stage 2 Fire Restrictions have been implemented per Forest Service officials.

Operations: Structure protection personnel continue to work on setting up pumps and sprinklers for the communities east of the Forest Service boundary. Bonito Lake structure protection has been completed but will continue to be patrolled. Fire crews worked with helicopters yesterday around Monjeau Peak to successfully extinguish hotspots. Heavy equipment is being used along the forest boundary as well as on the northern section of the fire to make sure the communities have a safe secondary line in place.

Weather: The fire area experienced low humidity and high temperatures yesterday. Today, the humidity is expected to increase which will help keep smoke moderate in the surrounding areas. There are isolated storms near the Texas and New Mexico border that are bringing in the humidity but no significant moisture over the fire is expected.

Smoke: Winds are expected to stay moderate which will assist with minimal fire growth or smoke production.

Much of the smoke that had been lingering around areas closest to the fire cleared out. Areas that had been experiencing periods of heavy smoke, such as Bonito and Capitan, can expect GOOD air quality. There is the potential for periods of light smoke this evening and overnight, but overall conditions should be much improved. View an interactive smoke map at fire.airnow.gov/

Closures: The Lincoln National Forest has issued an emergency area closure for the Blue 2 Fire. The full closure order (No.03-08-24-0001) and map are available on Inciweb and the Lincoln NF website.

Evacuations: There have been no recent evacuation level changes. The Lincoln County Emergency Services have been working with the incident management team daily to evaluate the status of all the evacuation levels. Effort is being made by fire crews to ensure that the fire perimeter is safe before repopulation of the surrounding communities. For an interactive evacuation map go to tinyurl.com/Blue2Evacs

Safety: A temporary flight restriction (TFR) is in place over the area, which includes uncrewed aircraft systems or drones. Find the TFR at tfr.faa.gov/tfr_map_ims/html/

#blue2fire #fireyear2024 U.S. Forest Service - Lincoln National Forest @Lincoln County Fire Service

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.