NWS NDFD Forecast Storm Total Rainfall Amounts.
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Forecast Storm Total Rainfall Amounts.
NWS NDFD Forecast Storm Total Snowfall Amounts.
Valid Tonight Through 6 PM MDT Sunday.
The Setup.
Finally, an October storm to talk about. Our weather is fixing to get busy tonight into the weekend.
At the surface, a sharp dryline will develop tonight along the east slopes of the Capitan, Sacramento, and Guadalupe mountains. It will strengthen and become the focus for scattered severe thunderstorms possibly later tonight but more so Friday into Saturday night. Meanwhile, a Pacific cold front will catch up with, and overtake the dryline Saturday afternoon and evening across southeastern New Mexico as it moves southeastward through the state.
Not a lot of cooling will accompany this frontal passage Sunday into the first of next week. Instead, it will deposit a slightly cooler airmass over the area which will produce high temps near normal.
At the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere, a deep and strong long-wave trough of low pressure will continue to dig and deepen southward into the desert southwest tonight. By sunset Friday a strong closed upper-level low will have formed over northern Arizona. This low will move little into Sunday and it won't begin to fill, weaken, and lift northeastward out of the Four Corners region until Sunday night into Monday.
Nearly Everything But The Kitchen Sink Friday Into The Weekend.
Southeastern Plains & Guadalupe Mountains.
Tonight: The dryline will sharpen up as low-level moisture surges northwestward into the area from the Gulf of Mexico. Low clouds, fog, and mist will be possible across parts of the southeastern plains later tonight into Friday morning. A few rain showers along with a few thunderstorms will be possible across southeastern New Mexico. A few of these storms could even possibly be strong or marginally or borderline severe.
Friday Into Friday Night: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will dot the southeastern plains. Scattered severe thunderstorms producing damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, large hail, locally heavy rainfall along with localized flash flooding will be possible. Chances for measurable rainfall are 20% to 40%.
Friday Night Into Saturday Night: Southeasterly winds will gust up to around 30 to 40 mph except higher in thunderstorms.
The tornado threat appears to be low at this time but can never be completely ruled out given the atmospheric setup into Sunday. Lines of severe thunderstorms may develop with a few isolated supercell thunderstorms forming out ahead of them.
Saturday Into Sunday: Repate the above with more numerous thunderstorms. Chances for measurable rainfall 50% to 70%. The storms and rain come to an end on Sunday.
Southwesterly winds will gust up to around 40 mph Friday afternoon across southern and central New Mexico which may produce areas of blowing dust. Including the El Paso and Albuquerque areas.
Capitan & Sacramento Mountains.
Tonight: Increasing chances for scattered rain showers and maybe a few thunderstorms here and there.
Friday Into Sunday: South to southwesterly winds increasing and gusting up to around 30 to 40 mph. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms increase Friday night into Saturday night, ending on Sunday. Snow may mix with the rain in the Sunspot, Cloudcroft, and Ski Apache areas late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Snow levels look to be at or around 9,000'. Chances for measurable rainfall will range from 40% to 70%.
Heavy Rainfall/Flash Flood Threat And Snowfall Totals.
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding Friday afternoon through Saturday night across the southeastern plains. As well as across the Capitan, Sacramento, and Guadalupe mountains. The most likely impacted locations would be the recent burn scars in the Sacramento mountains especially in the Ruidoso area. And across northern, north-central, northeastern, and eastern New Mexico.
Depending upon the location of the closed upper-level low to our northwest, how long it hangs around, and how far south it actually digs this weekend will help determine just how much rainfall falls over the state and local area.
The best guesses now (Thursday afternoon) are for 1" to 3" storm totals possible across the Capitan, Sacramento, and Guadalupe mountains, and the southeastern plains by Sunday.
Eastern and northeastern New Mexico could see up to 3" to 6" by Sunday night. Parts of the northern mountains and north-central New Mexico 1" - 2.50". These totals may vary from location to location and could be higher or lower depending upon how our storm tracks and hangs around.
A couple inches of fresh snow may accumulate when its all said and done across parts of the western and northern mountains below 9,000' by Sunday. Above 9,000' across the higher peaks, a foot or more could possibly fall. In the Sacramento and Capitan mountains accumulating snowfall looks less likely but not impossible 9,000' and above this weekend. A further south storm track could change this though.
This incoming fall storm is dynamic and if it closes off from the jet stream and becomes a cutoff low instead of a closed low then this could have significant changes in our weather. Cutoff lows are notorious for being very difficult to forecast. So there yet may be changes and updates in your local NWS forecasts. It is impossible for me to cover every area of the state in this blog post.
So please visit my weather web page linked below to see your forecasts, watches, warnings, updates, satellite images, radar images, and much more. By all means please feel free to share this blog post...and a big thanks to those of you who do. Stay safe and enjoy the rain and snow. Have a great weekend all.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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