Near Record To Record Warm Temps & Windy Today.
Our Next Winter Storm Is Southeast Bound.
RAP 500 MB Analysis @ 8 AM MST This Morning.
That yellow X circled in yellow northwest of Seattle, Washington is our next inbound Winter Storm that will have significant and varied impacts upon New Mexico's and surrounding areas weather today into Tuesday.
This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST Canadian (GEM) 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 11 PM MST Monday, February 1, 2016.
This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST US Model (GFS) 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 11 PM MST Monday, February 1, 2016.
Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST European (ECMWF) 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Monday, February 1, 2016.
Both the US (GFS) and the Canadian (GEM) models have similar tracks and speeds forecasted for this next Winter Storm to impact the area. These models have the center of the mid-upper level storm (500 millibar level or the 18,000' MSL) near the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles by around midnight Monday. The NAM model (not shown above) pretty much agrees with the GFS and GEM models as far as the storms position Monday night.
That's when the model are forecasting the storm to take a turn to the northeast and beat up the plains states with heavy snows and in some cases possibly blizzard conditions. Severe thunderstorms are also forecast across the south Sunday into Tuesday.
Last nights run of the European (ECMWF) has the storm slowing down some and just a tad further south that the GFS and GEM models do. It centers the storm near the Four Corners by sunset Monday.
As is always the case the minor differences in model forecasts can and often do have major impacts upon rainfall and snowfall amounts over the state. A further south and slower speed usually means more snow further south. But in most cases the center of a 500 millibar low has to get as far south as a Tucson to El Paso line to drop significant snow across the lowlands of southern and southeastern New Mexico. This is not always the case and there are other factors that play into to this as well. I don't see this happening right now with this storm.
Near Record Warmth/Windy/High Fire Danger Today.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Today.
As the surface pressure gradient tightens up around a surface low located in southwestern Kansas by sunset today, and the stronger winds aloft begin to mix down to the surface, strong southwesterly winds are forecast to rake the local area today especially across the mountains.
A High Wind Warning is in effect today into Tuesday afternoon for the Guadalupe Mtns of southeastern New Mexico and West Texas. Southwesterly to westerly winds sustained at 45-55 mph with gusts near 75 mph are forecast. These winds will decrease some tonight but not completely die down and will return again Sunday into Tuesday with sustained speeds of 50-60 mph with gusts to near 80 mph. This is fairly common this time of the year and nothing that unusual for the Guadalupe's.
A Wind Advisory is in effect for Eddy and Culberson Counties today for southwesterly winds sustained at 25-35 mph with gusts near 50 mph forecast. A High Wind Watch (Monday) and Wind Advisories (Today) are out for the southern Sacramento Mtns and southern New Mexico also. Southwesterly winds will gust up to around 45-50 mph today and near 60 mph on Monday.
Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions/Red Flag Warnings will prevail across the area today into Monday. Simply put please avoid any outdoor activity that involves the use of fire, sparks, or open flame. Any wildfire, range fire, or forest fire will have the ability to rapidly spread in grow in the very warm, dry, and windy conditions.
We may see localized areas/patches of blowing dust this afternoon associated with the stronger wind gusts especially near and over construction sites, open or exposed farmlands, fields, lots, and other normally dust prone locations.
Welcome to the 80's...no not the era but temperature-wise. Similar readings are forecast for Sunday. A few daily record high temps may be equaled or exceeded today and possibly again on Sunday.
Record High Temperatures For January 30th:
Roswell ThreadEx 82 in 1911.
Artesia Climate 85 in 1911.
Carlsbad Climate 88 in 1911.
Carlsbad Airport 81 in 1971
Hobbs Climate 80 in 1967.
Tatum Climate 82 in 1988.
Ruidoso Climate 68 in 1971.
Cloudcroft Climate 51 in 2014.
Alamogordo Climate 75 in 1967.
Local Climate Data Is Courtesy Of:
This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS Accumulated Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Monday, February 1, 2016.
This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST Canadian (GEM) Accumulated Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Monday, February 1, 2016.
This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST WPC Accumulated Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Tuesday, February 2, 2016.
(Worst Case Scenario).
This Mornings 18Z/11 AM MST NDFD (NWS) Accumulated Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Monday, February 1, 2016.
As you are aware of by now each model has a different snowfall total forecast. This is typical and seldom do they agree completely. So use these forecasts as a general guide...taken with a grain of salt or question. This given that any change in the storms actual track and speed will have a direct bearing on these and other forecasts.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
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