Turning Much Colder With Snow Next Weekend?
Valid At 7 AM MDT.
Valid At 8 AM MDT This Morning.
Northern and northeastern Alaska is very cold this morning with temperatures dropping down below zero with isolated locations dropping down into the -15ºF to -30ºF range. That's cold for this time of the year. This slug of very cold air is forecast by last nights run of the European model (ECMWF) to dive southward into New Mexico by next weekend. Time will tell.
Valid At Noon MDT Saturday, October 28, 2017.
Last nights run of the the European model drops a cold deep closed mid and upper level low over the Four Corners Region by next Saturday. This storm also drags the very cold airmass currently located over northern Alaska southward with it and into New Mexico and surrounding areas.
Valid At Noon MDT Saturday, October 28, 2017.
However last nights midnight MDT run of the GFS model has a completely different idea. It centers the closed mid and upper level low over the Great Lakes Region by next Saturday. Thus keeping the coldest airmass associated with this storm well to our northeast.
Valid At Noon MDT Saturday, October 28, 2017.
Valid At Noon MDT Saturday, October 28, 2017.
Valid At Noon MDT Saturday, October 28, 2017.
Valid At Noon MDT Saturday, October 28, 2017.
This model run also gets extremely excited about a significant heavy snowfall event for much of the northern and eastern halves of the state. It forecasts 3" of snow for Roswell, 6" for Ruidoso, 4" for Clovis, and 6" for Cliines Corners. It buries parts of Eastern, Northeastern, New Mexico and the Northern Mountains with 10" to over 2 feet.
Should the ECMWF forecast pan out a much colder airmass some 20ºF to 35ºF below normal would invade the area with our high temperatures potentially only in the 30's. Our first widespread freeze would also occur. Climatologicaly this forecast would be correct since most of Southeastern New Mexico experiences its first freeze of the season during the last week of the month.
Local Climatology.
The forecast above may seem rather dire for this time of the year but not really. Artesia recorded its coldest October daytime high temperature of 36ºF on Halloween in 1991. Their lowest temperature of 18ºF was recorded Oct 30th, 1918 and again on Halloween morning 1993. Artesia also recorded 1.0" of snowfall on Oct 28th, 1976 and 1.5" of snow on Halloween in 1991.
Roswell recorded their coldest October daytime high temperature of 35ºF on Oct 20th, 1906. And 39ºF on Halloween 1923. Their coldest temperature in October occurred Halloween morning in 1991 with a reading of 14ºF. Roswell has recorded 3.1" of snowfall on Oct 28th, 1976, 1.3" on Oct 29th, 1993, .5" on Oct 30th 1993, and .7" on Halloween 1991.
Now that I've gone and said all of this please remember that this event is still a week away and this is only one model run. I guarantee that this forecast will change between now and next weekend. The main take at this point is a turn to much colder weather looms on the horizon by next weekend. How cold and how much if any snow is not yet written in stone.
Our latest storm dropped a total of .97" over two days here at our home in NW Carlsbad.
(October 21st).
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
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