Current Conditions 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad 30-Day Temperature Graph

Severe Thunderstorms This Afternoon Into Tonight.

Severe Thunderstorms Today Into Tonight.

Southeastern New Mexico is currently in the Marginal Risk Area this afternoon for severe thunderstorms. A few Marginally severe thunderstorms are forecast across SE NM. Large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, and frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning will be possible in this area this afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will be possible with any strong to severe thunderstorm that develops.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast close to the NM/TX State line in the Jal area northward to Hobbs and then eastward into West Texas. Large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning, locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will be possible in these areas this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes are also possible.

A Note Of Caution-

Any subtle shift in the surface and upper air pattern today into this evening could impact our local forecasts. Should the dryline stall further westward than is currently forecast then our chances for a more widespread severe weather outbreak in SE could occur this afternoon into this evening. If the dryline is mixes out faster and further to the east than is currently forecast then less severe weather may occur. Please keep abreast of our local weather conditions and forecast today into tonight.

Two Pacific cold fronts will sweep eastward through New Mexico and West Texas. The first cold front will move from west to east into Southeastern New Mexico this afternoon. The second cold front will do the same and arrive in Southeastern New Mexico around sunrise Thursday.

The dryline will mix eastward today into West Texas. Rich low-level Gulf of Mexico moisture at the surface is entrenched over the area and will aide in the development of thunderstorms today into tonight. Some of these will become severe.

Valid At Midnight Tuesday Night.

A strong mid-upper level closed low off of the southwestern California Coast this morning. Several short waves are forecast to eject northeastward out of this low today into Thursday. The atmosphere over the local area is forecast to become unstable this afternoon into tonight ahead of the approaching cold fronts. Therefore the stage is set for a Severe Weather Outbreak today into tonight.

NWS Snowfall Forecasts.

Snow levels across the Sacramento Mountains today will remain between 9,000' and 10,000'. Late this afternoon and early evening the snow level will lower down to around 7,000' as the first cold front sweeps eastward through the area. Snowfall totals of 2" to 4" will be possible 7,000' and above. 3" to 5" will be possible above 9,000'.

Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are in effect this evening through Thursday for parts of western and northern New Mexico. Up to a foot of new snow is forecast for the mountains of northern New Mexico above 7,500'.

Valid This Evening Through Thursday.

West winds are forecast to increase to sustained speeds of 30 to 50 mph with gusts near 70 mph this evening through Thursday in the Guadalupe Mountains of New Mexico and West Texas.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!


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