Saturday, November 21, 2020.
Ski Apache Webcam Snapshot.
Valid At 5 PM MST Monday, November 23, 2020.
Valid At 5 AM MST Sunday, November 22, 2020.
NAM 3 KM Rainfall Total Forecast.
By 5 PM MST Monday, November 23, 2020.
Turning Colder & Wetter.
I must admit that I'm starting to get a little bit excited about our weather. Changes are in the making and it tickles me to death. Looking at the water vapor satellite image (above) we find that the subtropical jetstream has developed and is importing a long fetch of mid-high level moisture northeastward from south of Hawaii into the Desert Southwest. You can identify this moisture via the gray shaded areas. The orange shaded areas indicate dry air at the mid-high levels of the atmosphere.
Secondly, a mid-upper level trough of low pressure is forecast to develop then drop southeast out of the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. By Monday afternoon a closed mid-upper level low is forecast to be located near Las Vegas, Nevada by the European forecast model (ECMWF). This approaching storm will scope up some of the mid-high level moisture to our southwest and help fuel rain and snow across parts of New Mexico Sunday afternoon into Monday.
Finally, a southward moving cold front will enter the local area (Southeastern Plains) by sunrise Sunday morning. Low-level upslope flow will develop Saturday night ahead of the approaching frontal boundary and increase behind it Sunday night into Monday. Areas of fog and light drizzle may develop across parts of the local area Saturday night into Sunday morning. This will become more pronounced and widespread Sunday night into Monday.
Areas of light drizzle and light to moderate rain are also expected to begin developing locally Sunday afternoon and continuing into Monday. Both the European and NAM models forecast the greatest rainfall totals for the Southeastern Plains and nearby mountains. Generally, rainfall totals should be in the .10" to .30" range by Monday night. Although this morning's run of the NAM model forecasts .50" to 1.00" across the Guadalupe mountains. That's interesting.
Snow levels are going to be high with this storm generally around 10,000'. Accumulating snow may be possible at Ski Apache especially above 10,000'.
High temperatures on Saturday across the Southeastern Plains will range from the mid 60's to near 70. Sunday's highs will be in the 60's and Monday's in the 50's.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!