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Next Winter Storm On It's Way.

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Blog Updated At 5:05 PM MST Saturday, Jan 9, 2021.

(Tonight Through Noon Monday).



(Valid Saturday - Monday Morning).

(Valid At 5 PM Saturday).


European (ECMWF) 500 MB/18,000' Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Sunday.

Our next Winter Storm to impact the state and local area was moving onto the Pacific Northwest at noontime today. The models are in good agreement that it will continue digging to the southeast today through Sunday. And by sunrise Sunday it will be centered over Southeastern New Mexico near Carlsbad.

Meanwhile, at the surface, a strong cold front will sweep southward down the Eastern Plains into the local area on Saturday.

Rain will break out for a brief time across Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas Saturday afternoon but quickly change over to snow Saturday night. As of noontime Friday the models give us a glancing blow from the storm with the heaviest snowfall forecast to fall to our north and northeast. Interestingly enough if the models are correct the will also be a glancing blow for the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains.

As always any southward or westward shift in the track of the 500 millibar low and any slowing down of the storm would increase the snowfall across the local area. So there yet could be changes to our local forecasts.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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Blog Updated @ 3:11 PM MDT. Click On The Photos & Newspaper Articles To Enlarge Them. On May 31, 1991 at 8:39 PM MDT a then rated (F-2 Tornado touched down 2.1 miles southeast of the Carlsbad Airport (as the crow flies) just southwest of the end of Wagonwheel Rd. A day and time that many local residents will never forget. Newspaper articles at the time reported conflicting reports (understandably so) concerning the damage, injuries, and the time of the tornado. To many residents this was a shock...not something that we are used to seeing or dealing with.  The tornado touched down right at dusk. Cass Hernandez who was the Carlsbad Airport Security Guard at the time observed the tornado 2 miles southeast of the Airport as power flashes occurred from the tornado destroying power lines and transformers. It was eerie looking contrasted with the darkness and power flashes but there was no mistaking what was happening. The Tornado's path is circled in red...
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My Precipitation Totals - 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad

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This blog and its contents are for informational purposes only! Always have multiple sources of information available to rely upon during severe weather. Do not rely solely on the Internet. Be weather-aware, plan ahead, have a backup plan, and be ready to act before severe weather strikes your location.