Current Weather 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Weekend Winter Storm?



Perhaps I would be better off using the above forecasting methods when trying to figure out local weather instead of the computer forecast models.  

European (ECMWF) 500 MB/18,000' Forecast.

Valid At 9 AM MST Sunday, January 10, 2020.

European (ECMWF) High-Temperature Forecast.

Valid Sunday, January 10, 2020.




Valid At 5 PM MST Sunday, January 10, 2020.

All four long-range forecast models (GFS, ECMWF, GEM, ICON) drop a digging and strengthening mid-upper level short wave into the Four Corners this weekend. And then close it off over the area on Sunday. The European model is the most aggressive with its snowfall forecasts. 

It's still early so the forecasts above will likely change so expect changes. This storm has the potential to produce significant winter weather and impacts to much of New Mexico especially the northern and eastern half this weekend into the first of next week. Stay tuned for additional posts and updates.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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Dangerous Sunspot AR3112

Dangerous Sunspot AR3112
WHEN WILL THE NEXT CME ARRIVE? A magnetic filament in the sun's southrn hemisphere erupted on Oct. 4th, hurling part of itself into space. The emerging CME will pass mostly to the south of our planet, but a fraction could graze Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 8th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for minor geomagnetic storms and auroras on that date.

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