Snow Showers Partially Obscuring The Guadalupe Mountains.
Major Spring Storm To Produce High Winds & Blowing Dust!
Valid At 2 PM MST Saturday, March 13, 2021.
Valid At 6 PM MDT Sunday, March 14, 2021.
High Wind Event Shaping Up.
(Today Through 6 PM MDT Sunday).
A potent spring storm is forecast to wind up over northern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado Saturday into Sunday. This morning's GFS model brings a jet stream wind speed max of 121 knots or nearly 140 mph at 18,0000' right over the top of Southeastern New Mexico Saturday.
As the surface pressure drops and the gradient at both the surface and aloft tightens in response to the approaching powerful mid-upper level storm approaching from the west, and a strong Pacific Cold Front moving west to east across the area, a high wind event will develop over the local area. West winds sustained at around 40 to 55 mph with gusts to near 80 mph will kick up across the Guadalupe's late tonight and continue into Sunday evening. A High Wind Watch is in effect for those areas.
Although Southeastern New Mexico and nearby areas are not currently under any watches or warnings (as of noon MST Friday) I would expect that these may be issued for us later today...Wind Advisories and or High Wind Warnings for Saturday into Sunday.
West winds could easily become sustained at around 30-40 mph with gusts to 50 to 60 mph if not higher in some locations. Localized areas of blowing dust will also be possible Saturday into Sunday during the strongest winds. Watch for those sudden drops in the visibilities down to near zero with little to no advanced warning on local highways and roadways. This will be especially common in and close to these areas: Highway construction sites, exposed, open, or freshly plowed farmland, open lots, and fields.
Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions.
Critically dangerous fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the region today into Saturday. Our exceptional drought conditions prevail so any wildland, forest, range, or grass fires that may develop will have the ability to rapidly spread and grow in the high winds this weekend. Avoid any outdoor activity that involves the potential for sparks or fires to develop today and Saturday if possible.
(Today & Tonight).
Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Outlook.
(Saturday).
Severe Thunderstorms In West Texas.
Meteorological spring began on March 1st and our first regional severe weather outbreak will occur this afternoon and evening and again Saturday. Severe thunderstorms will be possible in the highlighted areas. Large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, deadly cloud to ground lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and flash flooding are all possible. Don't be surprised if a few tornadoes also develop.
A few thunderstorms may develop along or close to the New Mexico and Texas border this afternoon and evening across Eastern and Southeastern New Mexico. A few may become marginally severe.
New Mexico Snowfall Forecast.
Colorado & Wyoming Snowfall Forecasts.
(Valid Today Through 6 AM MDT Monday).
NWS NDFD Forecast Storm Total Rainfall Amounts.
(Valid Today Through 6 AM MDT Monday).
Today.
Saturday.
Sunday.
Spring storms are wild sometimes. You get just about everything with them when they are as strong and dynamic as this weekend's Rockies storm will be. Severe thunderstorms, blizzards, heavy snow, high winds, and dust storms, heavy rains, and flash flooding. This can be a fun time of the year to watch the weather but all too often the weather turns destructive and deadly which takes the fun out of it for those affected.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
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