Hot Next Week - Drought Update & Long Range Forecast.
Smoky/Hazy Sunrise.
Overlooking Carlsbad, NM From C-Hill.
(July 1st - July 26th).
(July 1st - July 26th).
New Mexico MesoWest Year-To-Date Rainfall Totals.
(January 1st - July 26th).
New Mexico CoCoRaHS Year-To-Date Rainfall Totals.
(January 1st - July 26th).
Hot Next Week!
Make no mistake the Dog Days of Summer are upon us. This coming week is just going to be brutal for those of us that live in the eastern, southeastern, and southern parts of New Mexico. In southeastern New Mexico our forecast high temps this upcoming week will generally be in the 102F to 106F range. As usual a few locals may be a degree or two hotter.
Not much rain is not in our forecast as far as the southeastern plains are concerned. At least not widespread drought busting gully washers. Isolated hit and miss storms are possible but overall most of us are going to remain high and dry over the next week.
Our typical midsummer popcorn type hit and miss thunderstorms will dot the landscape over others parts of the state. The most favored areas will be over and near the states mountains. Localized flash flooding will continue to be a threat in and near the burn scar areas as well.
Flood Watches remain in effect today into tonight for parts of the northern mountains and Lincoln County.
Southern New Mexico moved up one category from exceptional drought conditions to extreme drought conditions. I don't know about you but I can't tell the difference or improvement. Most of southern and southeastern New Mexico are now in the severe to extreme drought category. While the rest of the state is in the abnormally dry to moderate drought category.
Rainfall over the southeastern plains continues to be much below normal for July and the year as a whole. Rainfall over the Sacramento mountains falls into the same category.
Neutral El Niño conditions prevail out over the Eastern Pacific Ocean and this in part has helped play a role in our robust summer monsoon at times across parts of the state. The bad news is that La Niña conditions are forecast to develop (65% chance) from July into September. With La Nina conditions forecast to prevail this coming winter (85% chance).
Latest long-range outlooks (August-September-October) are not optimistic about having a cooler and wetter than normal late summer and early fall. The southeastern plains may benefit the most from wetter than normal conditions in September. Maybe, Ill believe that when I see it. My year-to-date rainfall total here at our home in Carlsbad stands at 2.30". Putting us over four inches below normal for the year so far.
Not all La Niña fall and winters are the same. Some are abnormally warm and dry for New Mexico while others can be cooler/colder and drier than normal. It's too early to speculate on what this fall and winter winter will hold.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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