U.S. Hwy 70 Bridge
Ruidoso, New Mexico.
Over The Rio Ruidoso River.
Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday, July 17, 2024.
Today.
Wednesday.
Thursday.
Friday.
National Blend Of Models 7-Day Rainfall Forecasts.
Approaching Slow Moving Cold Front & Monsoon Ramps Up.
See my latest Substack post on the flash flooding in Ruidoso and the fires.
A slow moving backdoor cold front will slide southward and westward through the eastern one half of the state today into Wednesday night. This front will knock the teeth out of our triple digit temperatures that southeastern New Mexico has had to endure for weeks now.
A second frontal surge will occur this weekend keeping New Mexico's daily high temperatures close to normal or just below. A much welcomed change trust me.
Subtle short waves or upper-level disturbances will rotate southward and southeastward around the top of the Monsoonal mid-upper level high pressure dome that will wobble around the Four Corners Region today into the upcoming weekend.
Meanwhile low-level moist easterly flow will increase behind the two fronts aided by the southerly low-mid level monsoonal flow. Bottom line...a big time increase in moisture will lead to widespread showers and t-storms Wednesday into the weekend. Decaying thunderstorm outflow boundaries which act a mini-cold fronts will also act to increase thunderstorm activity.
A few severe thunderstorms will be possible over northeastern New Mexico today and again on Wednesday.
Most favorable areas to receive rain even heavy to excessive rain in some areas will as usual be over and near the mountains. Most areas of the state should end up with beneficial rains over the next week. Currently the least favorable areas to receive rain will be the far southeastern plains and the far northwestern corner of the state.
As has already been the case, and will continue into the fall, until the monsoonal t-storms fade away, burn scar flash flooding will be problematic. Locally, this means the Salt, South Fork, Blue 2, McBride, as well as others recent burn scars in the Sacramento mountains. All burn scar areas across the state will suffer the same issues.
Any recent burn scar area that experiences t-storms or training t-storms (one after another) that dumps very heavy to excessive rainfall in a short period of time could potentially see more rounds of life threatening catastrophic flash flooding...especially in the Ruidoso area.
Any location in New Mexico could experience localized flash flooding from any t-storm that produces locally heavy to excessive rains in a short period of time.
Over the next week storm total rainfall amounts could easily be in the 3" to 6" range. Some localized areas could possible even see higher totals.
Flood Watches are already in effect across parts of New Mexico and this may continue off and on into the weekend for some areas.
Stay weather aware and be prepared to seek higher ground at a moments notice should flash flooding occur in or near you location.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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