AZ/NM To Get Monsoon Rains & Invest 97L.

- Saturday, July 30, 2016

NWS Albuquerque Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) This Morning:


"Storm coverage is expected to increase further early next week
across all of western and a good portion of central NM. Models
still holding to somewhat varying degrees to the eastward shift
of the upper high and thus allowing greater amts of moisture to
flow in from the s and se. The easterly wave coming slowly west
and nwwrd across Mexico should help to some degree with this as
well. With the increasing moisture lvls still being advertised
decided to add locally heavy rain wording to the scattered/chance
to numerous/likely pops areas starting today and for the aftns
through Monday. Today may seem a bit too soon for that, but given
the uptick of yesterday felt that we could get away with that as
early as today. As previous day shifter indicated flash flood
watches may be needed for portions of next week depending on
antecedent heavy rainfall locations and presence of any
discernible dynamic and/or thermodynamic markers. Still looks like
the west half will be more favored than farther east for the more
widespread heavier rains, at least for the better part of the
upcoming week. Finally, the real deal monsoon looks like it is
kicking in!"

GFS Model Forecasts This Week.

Total Rainfall Forecasts.

Valid @ 6 AM MDT Saturday, August 6, 2016.

Total Rainfall Forecasts.

Valid @ 6 AM MDT Saturday, August 6, 2016.

Total Rainfall Forecasts.

Valid @ 6 AM MDT Saturday, August 6, 2016.

WPC 7-Day Total Rainfall Forecasts.

Valid @ 6 AM MDT Saturday, August 6, 2016.

GFS Surface & 500 MB Forecasts.

Valid @ Midnight Saturday, August 6, 2016.

Thunderstorms To Our West This Next Week.

Roswell's 7-Day Forecast.

Carlsbad's 7-Day Forecast.

Ruidoso's 7-Day Forecast.

Cloudcroft's 7-Day Forecast.

Although our annual monsoon appears to be kicking in over most of Arizona and New Mexico southeastern New Mexico will for the most part be left high and dry over this upcoming week. Most of the thunderstorm activity associated with the monsoon will occur from the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan mountains and westward. That's not to say that a few isolated storms won't pop up over the plains at times but overall we are expected to miss the main show.

It would appear that the Sacramento mountains could end up with some decent storm totals by a week from now...they need it so bring it on.

All eyes are on a couple of potential tropical storms possibly affecting the Gulf of Mexico and nearby areas next week. Invest 97L appears at this time to be the stronger of the two (96L, 97L). Its early yet so don't get too caught up in the forecast track of this system. Still room and time for lots of error and forecast corrections but worth keeping an eye on.

Invest 97L Guidance Forecasts.

Issued @ 6 AM MDT Saturday, July 30, 2016.

GFS 126 Hour 900 hPa Wind Speed & MSLP Forecast.

Valid @ Noon MDT Thursday, August 4, 2016.

National Hurricane Center Outlook.

Water Vapor Satellite Image @ 10:45 AM MDT This Morning.


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles

activity has increased since yesterday, any additional development
is moving westward at 25 to 30 mph.  While the associated shower
should be slow to occur due to the rapid motion of the system.

Puerto Rico, and the eastern Caribbean Sea beginning later today.
Regardless of development, this system will likely bring showers and
gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
By the middle of next week, the disturbance is expected to be in the
western Caribbean Sea, where conditions could become more conducive
for development.

southwest of Cabo Verde has become less organized during the past
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
and a low pressure system centered a couple of hundred miles

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
24 hours.  However, there is still a chance for some development
during the next day or two before the disturbance encounters a less
favorable environment over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent


Forecaster Beven