Monsoon Flow Has NM In Its Gunsights - Invest 97L To Continue West.
(As Of 6 AM MDT July 31, 2016).
July was not a wet month for most of southeastern New Mexico. In fact here at our home in Carlsbad I've only managed to pick up .27" for the month and 2.82" for the year so far.
The Clines Corners ASOS measured 1.97" of rain over the past 24 hours.
Past 24 Hours.
(As Of 8 AM MDT This Morning).
Past 48 Hours.
(As Of 8 AM MDT This Morning).
Past 72 Hours.
(As Of 8 AM MDT This Morning).
NDFD (NWS) Total Rainfall Forecasts.
(Valid At 6 PM MDT Tuesday, August 2, 2016).
(Valid At 6 AM MDT Sunday, August 7, 2016).
(Valid At 6 PM MDT Tuesday, August 2, 2016).
Roswell.
Carlsbad.
Ruidoso.
Cloudcroft.
An interesting trend in some of the forecast models this morning in that a few of them are trying to shift the Monsoonal moisture currently streaming into Arizona and much of New Mexico slightly eastward. Just enough to give us a chance this upcoming week for a few scattered thunderstorms...some of which could produce locally heavy rainfall. Will be fun to see if this pans out. Meanwhile our temperatures will remain close to, or slightly above seasonal normals.
Invest 97L.
Not a lot of change in the overall thinking and model forecasts concerning the track and strength of Invest 97L this morning. As far as its track goes a jog generally to the west is anticipated. Some of the models have it reaching tropical storm strength just east of the Yucatan Peninsula by Thursday morning. Some of them curve it northward and into the Gulf by the end of the week. Some of them keep it heading westward into the Yucatan Peninsula, and out into the Bay of Campeche and into Eastern Mexico by the end of the week or next weekend. Nothing is set in stone at this point so keep an eye on it.
Valid At 6:45 AM MDT This Morning.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong and fast-moving tropical wave now entering the extreme eastern Caribbean Sea are disorganized, while satellite data and surface observations indicate no signs of a closed surface circulation. Although some gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days, the chance for tropical cyclone formation should increase after the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. This disturbance is expected to bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. These conditions should spread westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea tonight and reach Hispaniola on Monday. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent 2. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located nearly 700 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has changed little in organization. This system should continue moving westward at 10 to 15 mph, and development is unlikely due to unfavorable upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Forecaster Kimberlain
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
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