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A Break From The Heat - Thunderstorms With Heavy Rain Today - Sunday Night.

Blog Updated At 11:37 AM MDT Saturday, July 6th, 2019.

Heavy Rains Fall Near Tucumcari Friday.

Amarillo NWS Dual Pol Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Totals.

A complex of thunderstorms dumped heavy rainfall on the Tucumcari area yesterday and particularly to the northeast and southeast of the city along and near the NM/TX state line.

The Tucumcari Airport measured a 24-hour total of 1.65" as of 6 AM MDT this Saturday morning. Radar estimated that a wide swath of 3" to 4.50" of rain fell near the state line as indicated by the dark red to purple shades.

Lubbock NWS Dual Pol Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Totals.

Using GRLevel3 2.0 Software.

A few thunderstorms fired up over the local area yesterday afternoon but didn't produce much rainfall. A CoCoRaHS Station located 2.0 miles north-northeast of Roswell measured a 24-hour total of .07" while the Roswell Airport measured .05". Two CoCoRaHS stations measured 1.20" on the north side of Clovis.

Roswell's Airport officially reported a high temperature Friday of 105ºF while the Carlsbad Climate Station reported 104ºF. The Carlsbad Airport reached 103ºF as did we here at our home in northwest Carlsbad. The NMSU SEBS automated weather station 6 miles south-southeast of Artesia reported 102ºF. 

Cloudcroft's climate station located at 8,679' reported a high temperature of 80ºF Friday. 

Today is forecast to be a few degrees cooler due to an increase in moisture and cloud cover which will result in more widespread thunderstorm activity this afternoon into tonight and Sunday night. Locally heavy rains are possible which could pose a few localized flash flood issues.

Valid Today Through 11 PM MDT Sunday Night July 7, 2019.

Last nights run of the NAM model shifted the heaviest rains this weekend further to the south into Southeastern New Mexico and across the Capitan and Sacramento mountains. Storm totals of 1" to 4" are possible in a few areas according to this model forecast.

NAM 3 KM Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid Today Through 6 PM MDT Monday, July 8, 2019.

This mornings 6 AM MDT run of the NAM 3 KM forecast model sticks to its guns with heavy rainfall over the local area from this afternoon through about sunset Monday. With the majority of the heaviest rains falling tonight into Sunday night.

Its forecasting nearly 1.75" of total rainfall for the Roswell and Artesia areas and close to .50" to 1.50" for the Carlsbad area and around 1.00" for Hobbs. Note that this run forecasts 8.00" of storm total rainfall in the Cloudcroft area! These totals may very well be too high.

You can't get too specific with these forecast rainfall totals and relay solely on them. Please these model forecasts only as a guide. The idea here is that locally heavy rainfall will be possible over most of the local area today through Sunday night. Localized flash flooding may become an issue too. Whether or not we end up getting this much heavy rain over this big of an area will yet to be seen...although I'm all in for a widespread soaking rain. 

(As Of 9:19 AM MDT Saturday, July 6th, 2019).

TUCUMCARI - 1.65 in.
 • 2 SE CLOVIS - 1.54 in.
 • 12 NW SEDAN - 1.29 in.
 • 15 SSW CLAYTON - 1.26 in.
 • 13 SE TOLAR - 1.23 in.
 • 2 NNE CLOVIS - 1.20 in.
 • 2 NE CLOVIS - 1.20 in.

 • 4 NW TUCUMCARI - 0.97 in.
 • 20 S GRENVILLE - 0.92 in.
 • 4 WNW MCALISTER - 0.80 in.
 • 5 N PLEASANT HILL - 0.71 in.
 • 3 E SENECA - 0.71 in.
 • 3 E CLOVIS - 0.66 in.
 • 6 W PLEASANT HILL - 0.64 in.
 • 3 NNW TEXICO - 0.57 in.
 • 3 W LOGAN - 0.57 in.

 • 1 SSE CLAYTON - 0.49 in.
 • 5 NNE SEDAN - 0.45 in.
 • 6 NE CLAYTON - 0.41 in.
 •  null HOUSE - 0.41 in.
 • 8 S HAYDEN - 0.37 in.
 • 1 W CLAYTON - 0.36 in.
 • 7 ESE DES MOINES - 0.35 in.
 • 9 SSE FORT SUMNER - 0.35 in.
 • 2 ENE CLAYTON - 0.35 in.
 • 5 W TUCUMCARI - 0.34 in.
 • 1 NNE CLAYTON - 0.31 in.
 • 4 WSW MILLS - 0.28 in.
 • 3 WNW SENECA - 0.27 in.
 • 10 N NEWKIRK - 0.27 in.
 • 2 ENE CLAYTON - 0.26 in.
 • 22 WNW HAYDEN - 0.25 in.

 • 3 ESE PORTALES - 0.23 in.
 • 6 NE LAS VEGAS - 0.21 in.
 • 3 ENE TUCUMCARI - 0.20 in.
 • 11 ENE BELL RANCH - 0.19 in.
 • 11 ENE BELL RANCH - 0.19 in.
 • 3 NE MOUNT DORA - 0.19 in.
 • 1 W GRANTS - 0.16 in.
 • 1 SE SAN ANTONIO - 0.15 in.
 • 6 NE LAS VEGAS - 0.14 in.
 • 1 WNW RESERVE - 0.12 in.
 • 3 NNE CAPULIN - 0.12 in.
 • 3 SW PORTALES - 0.10 in.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!


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