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T-Storm Chances Increase Today Into Tonight - Some May Be Severe!

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Courtesy Of Frances Callaway.

This hot air balloon landed in our hay field at the Atoka farm south of Artesia. My mother gave them permission to do so and took this photo.

Numerous Showers And Thunderstorms Today Into Thursday.


Valid At 11 PM MST Tonight.

ECMWF Forecast High Temperatures Thursday.


Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook Today.


NWS Midland Severe Weather Outlook Today.


ECMWF Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid Today Through 2 AM MST Friday Morning.

Increasing Chance For Thunderstorms - Some May Be Severe.

Our closed mid-upper level low was located over northern Baja California and southern California early this morning. It will slowly open up and move eastward today into Thursday. As it does so mid level moisture will increase across the region ahead of it. As will lift and atmospheric instability. 

A cold front will work its way south into the local area by around midnight tonight. Low level easterly upslope flow and moisture will increase along and behind the cold front. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the local area today. In fact a few are ongoing across southern Chaves County as of 5 AM MST this morning.

Our chances for measurable rainfall have jumped up into the 70% range today into tonight and around 50% on Thursday. Highs today are forecast to be in the 60's ahead of the front. Highs on Thursday behind the front will only be in the 40's. This storm will be too warm to produce any snowfall over the mountains.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop today and continue into the overnight hours tonight. Some of these may become severe and produce large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts over 60 mph, deadly cloud to ground lightning, locally heavy rainfall and perhaps some localized flash flooding. There will be enough instability, lift, and wind shear to produce a few supercell thunderstorms. A few of these could even possibly produce a couple of isolated tornadoes.

Storm total rainfall amounts should be in the .50" to 1.0" range with the heavier totals in the 1.50" to 2.00" range in a few spots.

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