First Look At A Possible Major Thanksgiving Snowstorm.

- Saturday, November 23, 2019

At Sunrise This Saturday Morning.

Ski Apache (base elevation of 9,600') reported 4.0" of new snow from our latest storm. Nearby the Sierra Blanca Snotel (elevation 10,280') reported 8.0". The Sunspot CoCoRaHS Station 0.2 SSW reported 4.6" while the Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS Station 0.4 SSE reported 4.0". Not bad for the seasons first significant snowfall...and before Thanksgiving.

Season-To-Date Snowfall Totals.

(Oct 1st - Nov 23rd, 2019).

No doubt about it the fall has seen some pretty impressive snowfall totals already. If this is any indication of what's ahead for winter then strap them on and get ready to go for a wild ride...hang on!

NM Storm Total Snowfall Totals.

Reported Events
(click to show/hide details)

SNOW

• 8 NE ARROYO SECO - 19.0 in.
• 7 ESE CHUPADERO - 17.0 in.

• 5 ESE BLACK LAKE - 12.3 in.
• 5 ESE BLACK LAKE - 12.3 in.
• null RED RIVER - 12.0 in.

• 5 SSE LLANO LARGO - 10.0 in.

• 3 NW TRES RITOS - 9.0 in.
• 3 ESE ANGEL FIRE - 9.0 in.
• 6 WNW TERERRO - 9.0 in.
• 4 NNW TRES RITOS - 9.0 in.
• 2 SW ARROYO SECO - 8.0 in.
• 8 ENE VALDEZ - 8.0 in.
• 5 SW BONITO LAKE - 7.0 in.
• 1 NW OCATE - 7.0 in.

• 6 SSE SANTA FE - 6.5 in.
• 2 WNW PONDEROSA - 6.5 in.
• 6 W LOS ALAMOS - 6.0 in.
• null LUNA - 6.0 in.
• 2 SW PECOS - 6.0 in.
• 8 W MCINTOSH - 6.0 in.
• null TRES RITOS - 6.0 in.

• 2 SW MIERA - 5.9 in.
• 2 E GLORIETA - 5.5 in.
• 1 WSW PONDEROSA - 5.5 in.
• 2 W PONDEROSA - 5.5 in.
• 1 N RATON - 5.5 in.
• 1 WSW SEDILLO - 5.5 in.
• 1 S SEDILLO - 5.0 in.
• 8 SE EAGLE NEST - 5.0 in.
• 1 ESE SEDILLO - 5.0 in.
• null QUEMADO - 5.0 in.
• 3 N SANTA FE - 5.0 in.
• 1 WSW MIAMI - 5.0 in.
• 5 E SHADY BROOK - 5.0 in.
• 2 WSW EDGEWOOD - 5.0 in.
• 4 NW SANDIA PARK - 5.0 in.
• 5 E EL MORRO - 5.0 in.

• null ANGEL FIRE - 4.5 in.
• 4 NE SEDILLO - 4.5 in.
• null MIAMI - 4.5 in.
• 3 WNW SANTA FE - 4.5 in.
• 6 SSE SANTA FE - 4.3 in.
• 2 E SAN PABLO - 4.3 in.
• 1 N RATON - 4.2 in.
• 6 WNW PIETOWN - 4.0 in.
• null MOGOLLON - 4.0 in.
• null SANDIA PARK - 4.0 in.
• null LUNA - 4.0 in.
• 8 SW ROCIADA - 4.0 in.
• null SANTA FE - 4.0 in.
• 5 NW CHAMA - 4.0 in.
• 11 NNW CANON PLAZA - 4.0 in.
• 4 E SANDIA PARK - 4.0 in.
• 1 W CLAYTON - 4.0 in.
• 1 WSW SANTA FE - 4.0 in.
• 1 W CLAYTON - 4.0 in.

• 2 SE SOUTH SAN YSIDRO - 3.9 in.
• 2 E SAN ANTONITO - 3.9 in.
• null CHAMA - 3.7 in.
• 1 SW SANTA FE - 3.6 in.
• 7 NW LAMY - 3.6 in.
• 1 SW SPRINGER - 3.5 in.
• 2 N EDGEWOOD - 3.5 in.
• null LAS VEGAS - 3.5 in.
• 1 NNW ROMEROVILLE - 3.4 in.
• 4 NNW LAMY - 3.3 in.
• 6 SSE LUNA - 3.0 in.
• 7 NNW AGUA FRIA - 3.0 in.
• 2 E AGUA FRIA - 3.0 in.
• 1 ENE RATON - 3.0 in.
• 11 ENE RED RIVER - 3.0 in.
• 5 NW LAMY - 3.0 in.
• 3 E LOS ALAMOS - 3.0 in.
• 1 S MOUNTAINAIR - 3.0 in.
• 2 NE PLACITAS - 3.0 in.
• null ROWE - 3.0 in.

• 4 NW LAMY - 2.8 in.
• 5 WSW ARROYO HONDO - 2.8 in.
• 3 N CHILILI - 2.8 in.
• 3 SSE MAGDALENA - 2.7 in.
• 1 ESE ABBOTT - 2.5 in.
• 3 SSW SENA - 2.5 in.
• 2 NNW EDGEWOOD - 2.4 in.
• 3 NNE LOS CERRILLOS - 2.4 in.
• 2 SW AGUA FRIA - 2.4 in.
• 8 S HAYDEN - 2.3 in.
• 1 SE SANTA FE - 2.0 in.
• 1 N SAN ANTONITO - 2.0 in.
• 2 NW EDGEWOOD - 2.0 in.
• 7 NW WILLARD - 2.0 in.
• 11 SSW EDGEWOOD - 2.0 in.
• 3 ENE MIERA - 2.0 in.
• 2 N MOUNTAINAIR - 2.0 in.
• 1 NE SANTA FE - 2.0 in.
• 5 SSW TOADLENA - 2.0 in.

• 1 SSE DILIA - 1.7 in.
• 12 NW SEDAN - 1.7 in.
• 1 N MORIARTY - 1.6 in.
• 5 NW LAMY - 1.5 in.
• null WHITE ROCK - 1.5 in.
• 2 SSW LOS CORDOVAS - 1.5 in.
• 2 WNW CLAYTON - 1.3 in.
• 2 ESE ROY - 1.0 in.
• null RESERVE - 1.0 in.
• 1 SSW MADRID - 1.0 in.
• 1 S RESERVE - 1.0 in.
• 1 WSW LOS ALAMOS - 1.0 in.
• 4 S LOS CERILLOS - 1.0 in.
• 5 NE SANDIA PARK - 1.0 in.
• 2 SE MANZANO - 1.0 in.
• null MOUNTAINAIR - 1.0 in.

• 3 NE BONITO LAKE - 0.6 in.
• null TAOS - 0.5 in.
• 2 WNW PLACITAS - 0.5 in.
• null OJO ENCINO - 0.5 in.
• 2 ENE GALLUP - 0.5 in.
• 7 NE ALBUQUERQUE - 0.5 in.
• null SANTA FE - 0.4 in.
• 3 NW CARNUEL - 0.3 in.
• 5 E ALBUQUERQUE - 0.2 in.
• 3 E GALLUP - 0.2 in.
• 5 ESE ALBUQUERQUE - 0.1 in.
• 8 NNW OMEGA - 0.1 in.
• 2 ENE TAOS - 0.1 in.

Last updated:
0210 PM 11/22/2019

3-Day Storm Total Rainfall Amounts.
(Wed, Nov 20th - Fri, Nov 22nd, 2019).

NWS MesoWest NM Reported 72-Hour Rainfall Totals.

(As Of 7 AM MST Saturday, Nov 23rd, 2019).

Our latest storm dropped some very impressive rainfall totals for November. Too bad most of this was out in rural areas. Reported totals and radar estimates depict a swath of .50" to 1.75" from northwestern Eddy County northeast into Chaves and Roosevelt Counties. Radar estimated the heaviest rains fell just northeast of Roswell, near Albuquerque, and much of central Arizona.

The Roswell CoCoRaHS Station 3.4 NNE of downtown reported a storm total of .81". The Artesia CoCoRaHS Station 3.5 NNE of downtown reported .34". The CoCoRaHS Station in Carrizozo 1.5 NNE reported .72" and the Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS Station located 1.8 SSW of downtown reported 1.34" of rainfall and 3.5" of snowfall. My storm total here at our home in Carlsbad was only .02".

Wild Winter Storm Just In Time For Thanksgiving?

GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Wed, Nov 27th, 2019.

Looking at the last several runs of the U.S. GFS computer forecast model and I can't help but get excited about the potential of our next winter storm due to arrive mid-week next week. As too often is the case this model is just completely beside itself in forecasting a Major Winter Storm to impact the area. The European and Canadian models are less enthusiastic about the storms strength and snowfall and rainfall totals. I'll keep watching the models to see how this all will unfold next week but for now here's a very rough first look.

Surface Precipitation Type Forecasts.

5 AM Next Wednesday Morning.

11 AM MST Next Wednesday Morning.

5 PM Next Wednesday Evening.

11 PM MST Next Wednesday Night.

If and right now that's a really huge "If" this forecast model (GFS) is anywhere close to correct with its forecast next week...we would get clobbered. Just in time to mess up a lot of peoples holiday travel plans for sure. A nightmare mix of rain (green shades), changing over to freezing rain (pink shades), sleet (light orange shades), and heavy snow (blue shades) is forecast for the local are beginning Wednesday morning and lasting until sunrise Thanksgiving. Should this forecast verify travel across the local area would become dangerous and life threatening Wednesday into Thanksgiving.

GFS Forecast Storm Total Snowfall Amounts.
(Friday's 5 PM MST Forecast).

Valid At 11 PM MST Next Wednesday Night.

(Friday Nights 11 PM MST Forecast).

Valid At 11 PM MST Next Wednesday Night.

GFS 16-Day Temperature Forecast.

Artesia, New Mexico.

Ruidoso, New Mexico.

Comparing yesterday afternoons forecast run and last nights run indicates a more expansive area of heavy snow over the area. But..yea there is a big "but" in all of this, sorry. For one this is just one forecast model and the others aren't near as optimistic as the GFS and we are still five days away from the event so a lot will change between now and next Wednesday. Keep all of this in mind and be prepared for a storm just before or during Thanksgiving this year.

More later...Think Snow! :)

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!