Thunderstorms Wednesday - Some May Be Severe!

My Davis Vantage Pro2 Plus Temperature Graph.

(January 1st - November 4th, 2019).

Thunderstorms Return Wednesday - Some May Be Severe.

GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Wednesday, November 6th, 2019.

Early this Monday morning a small closed mid-upper level low was parked off the southern California Coast southwest of San Diego. This storm will begin a slow eastward treck Wednesday into Thursday. It will open up and weaken into a short wave trough of low pressure as it slides across New Mexico on Thursday.

GFS Forecast High Temperatures Today.

GFS Forecast High Temperature Anomalies Today.

Today will be unseasonably warm with our daytime high temperatures forecast to range from near 80ºF to 85ºF across the local area. These temperatures will be some 10 to 15-degrees above normal for the date.

Average High/Low Temps For Nov 4th.

Roswell 69/39

Artesia 71/36

Carlsbad 72/40

Hobbs 71/43

Tatum 68/35

Elk 64/30

Ruidoso 60/25

Cloudcroft 53/27

Surface Map Forecast.

A cold front will enter the area Tuesday morning which will knock our daytime highs back down into the 60's Tuesday afternoon.

GFS Forecast High Temperatures Tuesday.

GFS Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Thursday.

ECMWF Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Thursday.

GEM Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Thursday.

NWS Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Thursday.

WPC Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Thursday.

All of the forecast models are fairly close agreement on the storm total rainfall amounts they are forecasting for the area. The Canadian model is currently the wettest in forecasting 1.00" to 1.50" of rainfall over Eddy and Lea Counties.

Thunderstorms will break out Tuesday evening and increase in aerial coverage and intensity Wednesday into Wednesday night. Believe it or not but there is the potential for some of these to become severe and produce large hail,damaging wind, and locally heavy rainfall. Enough wind shear will be available in the atmosphere to possibility even produce a few weak tornadoes over parts of the area. See this mornings 5 AM MST AFD from the El Paso National Weather Service Office. More on all of this later.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!