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Thunderstorms Wednesday - Some May Be Severe!

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(January 1st - November 4th, 2019).


Thunderstorms Return Wednesday - Some May Be Severe.


Valid At 5 AM MST Wednesday, November 6th, 2019.

Early this Monday morning a small closed mid-upper level low was parked off the southern California Coast southwest of San Diego. This storm will begin a slow eastward treck Wednesday into Thursday. It will open up and weaken into a short wave trough of low pressure as it slides across New Mexico on Thursday.

GFS Forecast High Temperatures Today.


GFS Forecast High Temperature Anomalies Today.


Today will be unseasonably warm with our daytime high temperatures forecast to range from near 80ºF to 85ºF across the local area. These temperatures will be some 10 to 15-degrees above normal for the date.

Average High/Low Temps For Nov 4th.

Roswell 69/39
Artesia 71/36
Carlsbad 72/40
Hobbs 71/43
Tatum 68/35
Elk 64/30
Ruidoso 60/25
Cloudcroft 53/27

Surface Map Forecast.


A cold front will enter the area Tuesday morning which will knock our daytime highs back down into the 60's Tuesday afternoon.

GFS Forecast High Temperatures Tuesday.


GFS Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Thursday.

ECMWF Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Thursday.

GEM Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Thursday.

NWS Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Thursday.

WPC Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Thursday.

All of the forecast models are fairly close agreement on the storm total rainfall amounts they are forecasting for the area. The Canadian model is currently the wettest in forecasting 1.00" to 1.50" of rainfall over Eddy and Lea Counties.

Thunderstorms will break out Tuesday evening and increase in aerial coverage and intensity Wednesday into Wednesday night. Believe it or not but there is the potential for some of these to become severe and produce large hail,damaging wind, and locally heavy rainfall. Enough wind shear will be available in the atmosphere to possibility even produce a few weak tornadoes over parts of the area. See this mornings 5 AM MST AFD from the El Paso National Weather Service Office. More on all of this later.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!

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Average Daily High/Low Temps & Precipitation

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My Precipitation Totals - 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad

My Precipitation Totals - 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad

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Blog Updated 9-19-2016 @ 6:31 PM MDT. Diane & I Chase A Monster Of A Supercell!  Saturday, Sept 17, 2016.  Courtesy Of Diane J. Malone. My Wife (Diane) And I Took Old Yo Crossing Rd. South Out Of Roswell And Finally Got Out In Front Of This Monster Of A Supercell Thunderstorm On St. Hwy 13. She Took This Photo Near Mile Marker 11. Pretty Much Describes Rural Southeastern New Mexico. 3:09 PM MDT: This Beast Had Multiple Wall Clouds That At Times Showed Slow Rotation And At Other Times Was Spinning Like A Top. This Was A Ground Hugger At Times As Well. Initially When This Storm Developed South Of Picacho It Was Showing A Northeastward Movement On Radar. That Didn't Last Long As It Intensified And Started Heading East Then Made A Right Turn (Right Mover) And Took Off To The Southeast. At Times Moving Southeastward At 15-20 MPH Then It Would Accelerating To 40 MPH.  3:47 PM MDT: We Are About 1 Mile West Of Hope In Western Eddy County On ...
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Blog Updated At 9:57 PM MST. Courtesy Of Glen Brazell. Shared On Twitter By Kerry Jones. Nearly 30" The Ground In Ruidoso, NM. Downtown Ruidoso, New Mexico. Ruidoso Web Cam Snapshot At 1:54 PM MST This Afternoon. National Weather Service Watches & Warnings In Effect. As Of 5 AM MST Friday, December 28, 2018. Click On This Link To Open Up The Latest Updated Map. Then Once The Map Opens Up, Click Anywhere On The Map To Be Re-directed To Your Area Of Interest. The NWS Office That Has Forecast And Warning Responsibility For That Location Will Have The Latest Weather Information Posted On Their Web Page. US GFS 500 Millibar (18,000') Analysis. Valid At 11 PM MST Thursday Evening. As of midnight last night a slow moving and powerful closed upper level low was located over northern Arizona. US GFS 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast. Valid At 5 PM MST Today.  This winter storm is forecast to continue sinking slowly ...
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Blog Updated @ 3:11 PM MDT. Click On The Photos & Newspaper Articles To Enlarge Them. On May 31, 1991 at 8:39 PM MDT a then rated (F-2 Tornado touched down 2.1 miles southeast of the Carlsbad Airport (as the crow flies) just southwest of the end of Wagonwheel Rd. A day and time that many local residents will never forget. Newspaper articles at the time reported conflicting reports (understandably so) concerning the damage, injuries, and the time of the tornado. To many residents this was a shock...not something that we are used to seeing or dealing with.  The tornado touched down right at dusk. Cass Hernandez who was the Carlsbad Airport Security Guard at the time observed the tornado 2 miles southeast of the Airport as power flashes occurred from the tornado destroying power lines and transformers. It was eerie looking contrasted with the darkness and power flashes but there was no mistaking what was happening. The Tornado's path is circled in red...
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Winter Storm Watches & Warnings Are In Effect - Click On This Link For Additional Details. U.S. GFS Storm Total Snowfall Forecast. Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday. Today's (Sunday) noon mdt run of the GFS forecast model is just plain nuts. Its trend has been to produce heavier snowfall totals and aerial coverages with each new run over the past day. This has me worried. 19" for Roswell, 12" for Artesia, 15" for Clovis, 28" for the Fort Sumner area, and 17" for Corona! This would be wild in the dead of winter but is absolutely unheard of in the part of the world in October! The last time we saw something like this come to pass was the Blizzard of December 27, 28, 29th, 2015. Will history repeats itself? I hope not but I will admit that I am worried. My feeling is that we will see snowfall accumulations of around 6" to 12" in SE NM and 6" to 18" in the mountains.  GFS Freezing Rain Accumulation Forecast. Valid Tonight Through PM MDT Wednes...
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Disclaimer

This blog and its contents are for informational purposes only! Always have multiple sources of information available to rely upon during severe weather. Do not rely solely on the Internet. Be weather-aware, plan ahead, have a backup plan, and be ready to act before severe weather strikes your location.