Valid At 5 AM MST Thanksgiving Morning.
Valid At 5 AM MST Thanksgiving Morning.
GFS Forecast High Temperatures Thanksgiving.
How Cold Wednesday Into Thanksgiving?
I really wish that I could tell you that the computer forecast models have settled down and come into at least a general agreement as to how our incoming/developing Major Winter Storm is going to behave. Not so. So since the GFS has shown itself to at least be the most consistent with its varied run to run forecasts I'm sticking to it.
By sunrise Thanksgiving morning a very deep and cold closed mid-upper level low will be located southwest of San Francisco. This powerful Winter Storm is forecast to move eastward towards New Mexico by early this weekend. That is if it behaves as the models think it should.
Cold air at the surface and aloft will be in place across New Mexico tomorrow into early this weekend. But the fly in the ointment for Southeastern New Mexico and parts of West Texas will be a nose of warm air (warmer above 5,000' than at the surface due to the very strong southwest flow aloft) that may throw a kink in our local forecasts.
Take a look at the 11 AM MST run of the GFS forecast models forecast high temperatures across Southeastern New Mexico Wednesday and Thanksgiving. Just a couple of degrees warmer or colder will mean the difference between a lot more freezing rain, sleet, and snow in some areas locally...or less.
Valid At 5 PM MST Wednesday.
Valid At 11 PM MST Wednesday.
Valid At 5 AM MST Thanksgiving Morning.
Valid By 5 PM MST Friday.
GFS Forecast Sleet Accumulations.
Valid By 5 PM MST Friday.
GFS Forecast Total Snowfall Accumulations.
Valid By 5 PM MST Friday.
Winter Storm Ramps Up Wednesday Afternoon Into Thanksgiving.
As you can tell southern Eddy County as well as most of Lea County appears at least according to this model forecast to be on the edge of the accumulating snowfall line. This is what I think will be close to reality, at least closer than the other models are currently forecasting. But I still think that we are in for some surprises with this storm.
Winter Storm Watches are now in effect for Wednesday into Thanksgiving for parts of Eastern and Southeastern New Mexico, as well as the Central Mountains, and parts of Northern New Mexico.
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Locally I think Roswell stands to pick up 4" or 5" of snow. Artesia maybe 3" with perhaps an inch of sleet. Carlsbad and Hobbs a mix of light freezing rain, sleet, and snow with maybe ground cover. I think that we may end up with more than this. Ruidoso 6" to 10", Ski Apache 12" to 18". Cloudcroft 6" to 12", Sunspot 12" to 18". Mayhill 6" to 8". The Queen area 4" to 6".
I still expect to see to problems across the local area on our roads and highways from the freezing rain, sleet, and heavy snow. Some road closures may occur. There may also be some tree damage and some power lines that come down if the ice accumulations are heavy enough. Areas of blowing snow may cause issues on some of our highways too.
Travel across the area could become downright dangerous with some some road closures Wednesday into Thanksgiving...and maybe again Friday into Saturday.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!
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