Thunderstorms To Return Along With Cooler Temps.
Seven Rivers Sunset.
At Midnight Sunday, August 14, 2022.
ECMWF 500 Forecast.
Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday, August 17, 2022.Update: At 3:39 PM MDT Monday.
Changes In Daily Daylight Totals.
Have you noticed changes in our sky? For one our daily amount of sunshine is waning each day. For example here in Carlsbad, New Mexico our length of daylight today (August 15th) is 13 hours, 20 minutes, and 15 seconds. That is the time between sunrise (6:20 AM MDT) and sunset (7:41 PM MDT).
Two weeks from now our amount of daylight shrinks to 12 hours, 51 minutes, and 2 seconds on the 31st. Sunrise will be at 6:31 AM MDT and sunset will be at 7:22 PM MDT. Sometimes this time of the year it's possible to notice a subtle softness in the daylight. This is caused by the angel of the sun also dropping a little day by day. And it's also the time of the year with an increase in surface moisture our skies can and often are somewhat hazy.
Two weeks from now our amount of daylight shrinks to 12 hours, 51 minutes, and 2 seconds on the 31st. Sunrise will be at 6:31 AM MDT and sunset will be at 7:22 PM MDT. Sometimes this time of the year it's possible to notice a subtle softness in the daylight. This is caused by the angel of the sun also dropping a little day by day. And it's also the time of the year with an increase in surface moisture our skies can and often are somewhat hazy.
Summer-Like Temps Are More Than Likely Not Over Yet.
With all of that said are we done with summer? Not even. Our recent string of endless days and weeks with afternoon high temperatures of 100º or higher here across the Southeastern Plains has ended. But it's still possible to climb up to the century mark or high between now and mid-October. And I think that we will. It appears that between midweek and the end of the month we will see cooler than normal temps and above average rainfall overall areawide.
Our beginning of the meteorological fall starts on September 1st. September for Southeastern New Mexico is normally our wettest month of the year.
Consider the historical all-time high records between August 15th - Oct 15th.
Roswell August: 111º on August 26, 2019.
Roswell September: 104º on Sept 4, 5 2012.
Roswell October: 99º on Oct 2, 2000, Oct 9, 2021, Oct 14, 2020.
Artesia August: 111º on August 15, 1958.
Artesia September: 106º on Sept 5, 1948.
Artesia October: 100º on Oct 5, 6, and 8 1934.
Carlsbad August: 111º on August 27, 2019.
Carlsbad September: 106º on Sept 7, 1948.
Carlsbad October: 101º on Oct 5, 1934.
Hobbs August: 108º on August 26, 2019.
Hobbs September: 109º on Sept 3, 1939.
Hobbs October: 98º on Oct 3, 2000, and 98º on Oct 5, 1947.
Normal High/Low Temps.
For August 15th.
Roswell (3,624'): 95/69
Artesia (3,366'): 95/65
Hope (4,085'): 92/68
Carlsbad (3,250'): 95/69
Hobbs (3,655;): 93/68
Tatum (4,012;): 92/63
Picacho (5,004'): 89/60.
Ruidoso (6,930'): 79/51
Elk (5,934'): 84/55
Mountain Park (6,804'): 79/56
Cloudcroft (8,723'): 70/48.
However, A Pattern Change Is Underway.
Our summer weather has been dominated by a stronger-than-normal mid-level dome of high pressure. This dome of high pressure acts as a lid and traps heat underneath it. Around the edges of the ridge, you have the so-called ring of fire where monsoonal thunderstorms often fire up. As the center of the ridge wobbled around the region from west to east and back so did our summer rainfall pattern. For the most part, Eastern, Southeastern New Mexico, and much of Texas have been left out of the beneficial rains that have occurred this year.
A split in this ridge of high pressure has occurred with the center of the ridge relocating over the Great Basin and the Pacific Northwest and off of the Eastern seaboard in the coming days ahead. Instead of its usual place of habitat near the Four Corners Region.
A split in this ridge of high pressure has occurred with the center of the ridge relocating over the Great Basin and the Pacific Northwest and off of the Eastern seaboard in the coming days ahead. Instead of its usual place of habitat near the Four Corners Region.
This weakening and split in the ridge is important for a couple of reasons. One it has allowed a mid-level low-pressure area to develop along the upper Texas Gulf Coast this past week which has migrated westward over the weekend. Early this morning was located near Laredo, Texas. This mid-level low and or inverted trough of low pressure will continue moving to the west-northwest this week and by Wednesday it should be located near the Boot Heel of New Mexico extending southward into northern Old Mexico.
Two a mid-level shortwave trough of low pressure centered over the Great Lakes Region and the Northeastern U.S. is forecast to kick a surface cold front southward from the Central Plains and into the eastern side of New Mexico and West Texas Tuesday into Wednesday. This front will enhance the low-level easterly upslope flow into our local area state mid-week. Combine these factors with an increase of monsoonal moisture enhanced by the mid-level low passing to our south this week and we will see a return of thunderstorms locally.
For this week anyway our high temps across the local area (outside of the mountains) are forecast to remain in the 90's today into Wednesday ahead of the approaching cold front. Our high temps should drop into the 80's Thursday and Friday with the cooler airmass in place and the increase in clouds and moisture.
Today.
Tuesday.
Wednesday.
Thursday.
Friday.
Rainfall Total Forecasts.
Today Through Sunday.
National Blend Of Models (NBM).
Today Through Sunday.
Update at 2:20 PM MDT Monday:
I added the 18Z (GMT) run of the National Blend of Models total rainfall forecast from today through this coming Sunday. It is trending for more widespread moderate to heavy rainfall over the south-central mountains and Southeastern Plains. Hope this pans out because we are in bad need of a good soaking rain!
GFS.
Today Through Sunday.
6-10 Day Outlook.
8-14 Day Outlook.s
Our chances for rain across the Southeastern Plains start going up again tomorrow afternoon (Tuesday) and continue through this upcoming weekend. Our daily high temps will cool with the increase in clouds, moisture, and rainfall, and what a relief that will be. Scattered thunderstorms will dot the landscape across the entire local area from Tuesday into this weekend. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible especially over and near the mountains. Localized flash flooding will occur with the stronger thunderstorms and over and near the burn scar areas in the mountains.
Our new long-range forecasts issued Sunday continues the theme of cooler than normal temps and above-average rainfall for all of New Mexico.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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