Storm Summary - Another High Wind/Blowing Dust Event - Potential Brutal Arctic Plunge Sunday?


January 8, 2024.
Virga Over Carlsbad, NM.


Valid At 5 AM MST Thursday.


Valid At 5 PM MST Thursday.

NWS NDFD Peak Wind Forecast.

Valid Thursday Into Friday Morning.

Valid Wednesday Night Through Friday.













Another Wind Storm With Some Mountain Snow.

Enjoy the relative calm in between storms because what's coming perhaps as early as Sunday will knock your socks off. But first let's talk about Thursday's high winds and yes, more blowing dust.

A short wave trough of low pressure at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere is forecast to dig south into New Mexico early Wednesday. And then swing east across the region early Thursday into Friday. Another Pacific cold front will swing eastward across the area on Thursday. 

This next fast moving winter storm is forecast to be drier and colder than the one that we just experienced. Note that storm produced a whopping 30" of snow in Chupadero, which is north of Santa Fe, east of the Tesuque Pueblo.  

The Raton Crews Airport ASOS clocked a peak wind gust of 90. The West Texas Mesonet Station in Pine Springs, in the Guadalupe Mountains National Park clocked a peak wind gust of 83 mph. The Carlsbad Airport ASOS measured a peak gust of 64 mph and the Roswell Airport ASOS measured a peak gust to 62 mph. 

A High Wind Watch has been issued for the Eddy County Plains as well as the Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County, Culberson County in West Texas, and southward into the Texas Big Bend Country. For Thursday west winds sustained at 30 to 45 mph with gusts near 65 mph are currently forecast for the lower elevations. 

In the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains west winds will become sustained at 40 to 55 mph with gusts near 80 mph.

A High Wind Watch is in effect for most of southern New Mexico for Thursday including Otero County (including the Sac's). West winds will become sustained at 35 to 45 mph with gusts near 65 mph. 

Once again areas of blowing dust appear likely as strong winds aloft mix down to the surface aided by an approaching Pacific cold front from the west and a tight surface pressure gradient. Localized damaging winds are also possible.

A couple of inches of snow may be possible across some of the higher areas of the Sacramento and Capitan Mountains. Blowing snow could become a problem in some areas hampering travel. Wind chill values on Thursday will drop down into the single digits and down around -3F at Ski Apache.


If The Canadian Model Is Correct We Are In Trouble Next Week!

Canadian (GEM) Mean Sea Level Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Sunday.

Canadian (GEM) 500 MB (18,000' MSL) Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Monday.

Canadian (GEM) Temperature Anomaly Forecast.


Valid At 5 PM MST Sunday.

Canadian (GEM) Temperature Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Sunday.

Canadian (GEM) Temperature Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Sunday.

Canadian (GEM) Temperature Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Monday.

Canadian (GEM) Apparent Temperature Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Monday.

Talk About A Classic Arctic Frontal Boundary!

Heads up folks...it's time to talk about the elephant in the room. That being the potential for a brutal invasion of arctic air into the state possibly as early as Saturday night in northeastern New Mexico. Then Sunday across the eastern and southeastern plains. 

If the Canadian model is even close to being correct with its forecast temperatures Sunday afternoon and evening, we could see a 60-degree temperature spread across the arctic frontal boundary as it burrows/plows southward and westward down the eastern plains of the state. Wind chill values potentially could fall into the -10 to -20F range Sunday night into Monday morning. We could be looking at several days of never rising above freezing. If, and that's a big if this model forecast is correct.

I chose the Canadian (GEM) forecast model for this blog post because it has a good track record of forecasting these brutally cold arctic outbreaks (blue northerns as our Texas neighbors call them). The other forecast models are in the general area but as you might expect there are lots of timing differences and strength differences in regards as to how cold this beast will be. 

I'm not going to focus on the details yet. It's simply too soon. But this event could be one for the record books and something to write home about and remember. How cold will it get and for how long are the two key questions that I can't answer with any precision just yet. More as this event becomes better defined by the computer forecast models and closer to occuring. Don't get me wrong I'm not saying that it is going to get this cold next week...I simply just don't know yet. Maybe it will, maybe it won't be this bad.

Will History Repeat Itself? 

We've seen similar outbreaks of this strength and magnitude before. Most recently the historic outbreak in February, 2011. Artesia dropped down to -7F, the Roswell Airport -11F, Elk -24F, Dry Canyon east of Cloudcroft -27F, Mayhill Raws -21F, Cloudcroft officially -20F, Ruidoso set an all-time new record low with -27F, and Mescalero -30F.

And many other occasions. Roswell's official all-time lowest temperature was record on February 12th, 1905 with -29F

Such as February 8th, 1933 when Artesia officially plunged down to -35F after a daytime high of only 7F. Hagerman officially registered -34F, Tatum -32F, Pearl west of Hobbs -30F, Richland in Roosevelt County -29F, Portales -28F, Lovington -27F, Boaz (Chaves County -26F, Roswell -24F, Hope -22F, and Carlsbad -17F. Seminole, Texas tied the state lowest official temp record on this date also with -23F. Go to the left hand side column of my main weather page and scroll down until you come to the header "Record Low Temps" to see some of my other blog posts on our record cold facts. 

In December, 1987 Artesia officially recorded a low of -13F. And I also recorded a low of -13F at our family farm/ranch in Lakewood.

On January 11,1962 Artesia dropped to -20F and unofficially -24F. Roswell -24F. Carlsbad -18F (official lowest temp on record), Cloudcroft -21F, Ruidoso -24F, Elk -19F, Alamogordo -14F, and the Mayhill Ranger Station -13F.

Now that I've scared the crap out of everyone...don't panic just yet. It is going to get cold that appears fairly likely. I'm not going to focus on the details yet. It's simply too soon. But this event could be one for the record books and something to write home about and remember. How cold will it get and for how long are the two key questions that I can't answer with any precision just yet. More as this event becomes better defined by the computer forecast models and closer to occuring. 




Winter Storm Summary!









Monday.




Cloudcroft officially measured d3.0" of snow with this recent winter storm. 


Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1049 AM MST Tue Jan 9 2024

...ADDITIONAL WIND AND SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM THIS MORNING...

...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS...

Location                     Speed     Time/Date

...New Mexico...

...Lincoln County...
Nogal                        56 MPH    0730 AM 01/09
Sierra Blanca Rgnl Arpt      45 MPH    0535 AM 01/09
Roswell No. 2 Portable       43 MPH    0820 AM 01/09

...Santa Fe County...
Glorieta 6 WNW               45 MPH    0600 AM 01/09

...Torrance County...
Edgewood Swcd                52 MPH    0625 AM 01/09
Duran 7 SW (UPR)             40 MPH    0526 AM 01/09

...SNOWFALL REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date

...New Mexico...

...Bernalillo County...
Ponderosa 2 WNW              3.5 in    0700 AM 01/09
Cedro 2.4 S                  3.1 in    0700 AM 01/09
Ponderosa 1 WSW              3.0 in    0700 AM 01/09
Miera 2 SW                   1.0 in    0600 AM 01/09

...Curry County...
Clovis 2.3 NNE               1.0 in    0700 AM 01/09

...Quay County...
McAlister 7.7 N              3.0 in    0800 AM 01/09
House 0.1 S                  2.8 in    0700 AM 01/09
Logan 1.5 W                  2.0 in    0700 AM 01/09

...San Juan County...
Aztec 9.9 NE                 4.5 in    0741 AM 01/09

...Santa Fe County...
7 E Chupadero                30.0 in   1000 AM 01/09
Santa Fe 0.7 ESE             3.3 in    0700 AM 01/09
Santa Fe 5.5 SSE             3.3 in    0800 AM 01/09
Santa Fe 2.3 NE              3.0 in    0700 AM 01/09
Santa Fe 2.3 SE              2.3 in    0700 AM 01/09
Santa Fe 1.3 WSW             2.0 in    0700 AM 01/09
Santa Fe 10.4 SSE            2.0 in    0800 AM 01/09
Santa Fe Seton               1.7 in    0730 AM 01/09
Santa Fe 3.6 ENE             1.5 in    0800 AM 01/09
Santa Fe 11.4 SSE            1.1 in    0700 AM 01/09
Los Cerrillos 3 NNE          1.0 in    0700 AM 01/09

...Taos County...
3 NW Tres Ritos              17.0 in   1000 AM 01/09
Chamisal                     16.0 in   0800 AM 01/09
8 SW Red River               14.0 in   1000 AM 01/09
Taos 4.3 NNW                 1.6 in    1159 PM 01/08

...Torrance County...
Mountainair 8 NW             1.0 in    0700 AM 01/09
&&
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
819 PM MST Mon Jan 8 2024

...SNOWFALL REPORTS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date

...New Mexico...

...Bernalillo County...
Miera 2 SW                   14.0 in   1115 AM 01/08
1 SSW Ponderosa Pines        10.5 in   0500 PM 01/08
2 W Ponderosa Pines          10.0 in   1115 AM 01/08
Ponderosa 3 ENE              8.5 in    0700 AM 01/08
Cedro 2.4 S                  8.5 in    0700 AM 01/08
Ponderosa 2 WNW              7.7 in    0700 AM 01/08
Sedillo 1 S                  7.6 in    0700 AM 01/08
Miera 2 ESE                  7.0 in    0800 AM 01/08
Sedillo 1 WSW                6.7 in    0700 AM 01/08
Sedillo 1 ESE                6.5 in    0700 AM 01/08
Ponderosa 1 WSW              6.0 in    0700 AM 01/08
Sedillo 2 ESE                4.6 in    0800 AM 01/08
Chilili 2 N                  4.4 in    0700 AM 01/08
Cedar Crest 0.5 NNW          4.0 in    0700 AM 01/08
Sandia Park 0.5 S            4.0 in    0900 AM 01/08
Sandia Park 4.9 ESE          3.7 in    0700 AM 01/08
Edgewood 4.4 W               3.5 in    0800 AM 01/08
Cedar Crest 3.0 NNE          3.3 in    0600 AM 01/08
Edgewood 6.1 NW              2.8 in    0700 AM 01/08
Tijeras 0.4 SE               2.4 in    0700 AM 01/08
Sandia Park 3.7 ESE          2.3 in    0700 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 9.8 ESE          2.0 in    0700 AM 01/08
Sandia Park 3.6 ESE          1.9 in    0700 AM 01/08
1 NNE Sandia Heights         1.5 in    0819 AM 01/08
Sandia 3.4 E                 1.3 in    0700 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 8.7 SE           1.0 in    0700 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 8.1 ESE          0.8 in    0700 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 8.1 ENE          0.7 in    0700 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 7.8 ESE          0.7 in    0700 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 7.6 E            0.6 in    0800 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 8 NE             0.5 in    0700 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 8.1 ESE          0.5 in    0700 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 8.0 ESE          0.5 in    0700 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 8.1 ESE          0.5 in    0704 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 7.8 E            0.5 in    0800 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 6.0 NW           0.4 in    0700 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 7.8 ENE          0.4 in    0700 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 8.9 NW           0.4 in    0800 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 7.4 ENE          0.4 in    0800 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 4.7 E            0.3 in    0600 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 5.2 E            0.3 in    0700 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 6.3 NNW          0.3 in    0700 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 3.7 SSE          0.3 in    0825 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 1.2 SSE          0.2 in    0600 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 4.0 W            0.2 in    0700 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 5.0 ESE          0.2 in    0700 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 6.9 WSW          0.2 in    0700 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 6.1 NW           0.2 in    0720 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 8.1 NW           0.2 in    0800 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 3.3 ESE          0.2 in    0800 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 6.6 E            0.2 in    0805 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 5.0 E            0.1 in    0600 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 3.3 WNW          0.1 in    0700 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 4.8 ESE          0.1 in    0700 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 2.9 W            0.1 in    0700 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 5.5 NW           0.1 in    0700 AM 01/08
Albuquerque 5.5 NNW          0.1 in    0700 AM 01/08
North Valley 0.1 N           0.1 in    0800 AM 01/08

...Catron County...
Datil 2.0 W                  1.1 in    0700 AM 01/08
Pleasanton                   1.0 in    1000 AM 01/08

...Cibola County...
Ramah 3.1 ENE                10.0 in   0700 AM 01/08
El Morro 2 WSW               4.5 in    0900 AM 01/08
Grants 1.6 NE                0.7 in    0700 AM 01/08
Grants 1.0 W                 0.7 in    0700 AM 01/08

...Colfax County...
3 E Angel Fire               7.0 in    0545 AM 01/08
5 S Cimarron Canyon State Pa 5.0 in    0851 AM 01/08
2 SE Enchanted Forest XC Ski 3.0 in    1200 AM 01/08
2 WNW Angel Fire             3.0 in    0700 AM 01/08
Angel Fire 4.1 NNW           2.5 in    0700 AM 01/08

...Curry County...
Broadview                    5.0 in    0150 PM 01/08
Melrose                      0.5 in    1000 AM 01/08

...Lincoln County...
5 SW Bonito Lake             6.0 in    0400 PM 01/08
Nogal 4.6 SSE                1.3 in    0700 AM 01/08
Capitan 4.3 WSW              0.7 in    0700 AM 01/08
Alto 4.8 NE                  0.5 in    0700 AM 01/08
Lincoln 1.4 ESE              0.5 in    0700 AM 01/08
Capitan 1.3 WSW              0.5 in    0715 AM 01/08
Ruidoso 5.6 NNE              0.5 in    0715 AM 01/08

...Los Alamos County...
1 NNE Pajarito Mountain Ski  6.0 in    0800 AM 01/08
Los Alamos 2.5 WSW           2.5 in    0800 AM 01/08
Los Alamos 1.4 E             1.8 in    0700 AM 01/08
Los Alamos 6.9 SSE           1.0 in    0700 AM 01/08
White Rock 1.4 NE            1.0 in    0700 AM 01/08
Los Alamos 6.1 SE            1.0 in    0800 AM 01/08

...McKinley County...
Prewitt 5.5 NNE              0.5 in    0800 AM 01/08

...Mora County...
Chacon 2.1 ENE               2.6 in    0700 AM 01/08

...Rio Arriba County...
Truchas 1.4 ESE              10.5 in   0700 AM 01/08
5 NW Chama                   8.0 in    0800 AM 01/08
11 NNW Canon Plaza           7.0 in    0800 AM 01/08
12 SSE Coyote                6.0 in    1200 AM 01/08
9 E Cuba                     4.0 in    0800 AM 01/08
El Vado                      4.0 in    0800 AM 01/08
Chama 23.3 SSW               3.9 in    0700 AM 01/08
Alcalde 19 N                 3.7 in    0700 AM 01/08
Cordova 0.4 SW               3.0 in    0234 AM 01/08
Alcalde 5.9 NE               2.5 in    0700 AM 01/08
Gallina 2.0 W                2.0 in    0700 AM 01/08
Abiquiu 2.4 ENE              2.0 in    0700 AM 01/08
Espanola 5.4 WNW             1.2 in    0700 AM 01/08

...San Juan County...
5 SSW Toadlena               10.0 in   0800 AM 01/08
Navajo Dam                   5.0 in    0700 AM 01/08
Aztec 9.1 NE                 4.7 in    0700 AM 01/08
Aztec 0.9 E                  3.0 in    0700 AM 01/08
Aztec 1.0 ESE                3.0 in    0800 AM 01/08
Farmington 3.0 NE            2.0 in    0600 AM 01/08
Bloomfield 1.7 N             1.0 in    0400 AM 01/08
Bloomfield 0.8 NE            1.0 in    0700 AM 01/08
Farmington 1.4 WSW           0.3 in    0700 AM 01/08
Farmington 2.8 S             0.2 in    0800 AM 01/08

...San Miguel County...
8 SW Rociada                 10.0 in   0500 AM 01/08
Rowe 2.7 NNW                 5.0 in    0700 AM 01/08
Ilfeld 0.7 NE                1.4 in    0800 AM 01/08
San Pablo 2 E                0.8 in    0700 AM 01/08
Ribera 1.7 SW                0.4 in    0900 AM 01/08

...Sandoval County...
1 SSW Cuba                   6.0 in    1153 AM 01/08
Jemez Springs 6.6 ENE        3.3 in    0700 AM 01/08
Cuba 2.1 NNW                 1.6 in    0700 AM 01/08
Jemez Springs 2.8 SSW        1.5 in    0800 AM 01/08
Jemez Pueblo 5.7 NNW         1.0 in    0630 AM 01/08
Placitas 3.8 ENE             1.0 in    0700 AM 01/08
8.8 SW Cuba                  1.0 in    0700 AM 01/08
Placitas 2.0 E               0.7 in    0700 AM 01/08
Rio Rancho 4.1 WSW           0.6 in    0600 AM 01/08
Rio Rancho 3.0 WSW           0.5 in    0700 AM 01/08
Rio Rancho 3.5 SSW           0.3 in    0700 AM 01/08
Rio Rancho 4.0 WNW           0.2 in    0600 AM 01/08

...Santa Fe County...
7 E Chupadero                25.0 in   0445 PM 01/08
2 SSE Santa Fe Ski Area      18.0 in   0700 AM 01/08
Santa Fe 3.6 ENE             6.4 in    0800 AM 01/08
Santa Fe 6.2 SSE             6.3 in    1000 AM 01/08
Glorieta 2.4 E               6.0 in    0700 AM 01/08
4 ENE Santa Fe               6.0 in    0137 PM 01/08
2 N Santa Fe                 5.5 in    0925 AM 01/08
Santa Fe 2.3 NE              5.0 in    0700 AM 01/08
Pojoaque 0.7 N               4.3 in    0700 AM 01/08
Santa Fe 3.6 WNW             4.1 in    0745 AM 01/08
Santa Fe 5.5 SSE             4.0 in    0630 AM 01/08
Santa Fe 3.2 WNW             4.0 in    0800 AM 01/08
Santa Fe 1.1 ENE             3.9 in    0751 AM 01/08
Santa Fe 0.7 E               3.8 in    0745 AM 01/08
Santa Fe 11.0 SSE            3.7 in    0700 AM 01/08
Santa Fe 1.3 WSW             3.5 in    0700 AM 01/08
Santa Fe 0.3 NNE             3.5 in    0800 AM 01/08
Santa Fe 0.7 ESE             3.4 in    0719 AM 01/08
Santa Fe 3.3 WSW             3.0 in    0700 AM 01/08
Santa Fe Seton               3.0 in    0630 AM 01/08
Santa Fe 10.2 S              2.5 in    0700 AM 01/08
Pojoaque 5.0 W               2.5 in    0830 AM 01/08
Santa Fe 10.4 SSE            2.3 in    0800 AM 01/08
Santa Fe 10.6 SSE            2.2 in    0700 AM 01/08
Lamy 5 NW                    2.2 in    0700 AM 01/08
Santa Fe 7.7 WNW             2.0 in    0700 AM 01/08
Madrid 0.6 SSW               2.0 in    0700 AM 01/08
Santa Fe 3.3 WNW             2.0 in    0800 AM 01/08
2 SW Agua Fria               2.0 in    0800 AM 01/08
Santa Fe 7 SW                1.9 in    0700 AM 01/08
Santa Fe 4.3 SW              1.8 in    0730 AM 01/08
Santa Fe 10.7 S              1.8 in    0800 AM 01/08
1 SW Santa Fe                1.7 in    0116 AM 01/08
Los Cerrillos 3 NNE          1.5 in    0700 AM 01/08
Santa Cruz                   1.5 in    0328 PM 01/08

...Taos County...
3 NW Tres Ritos              13.0 in   0529 AM 01/08
8 S Red River                13.0 in   0653 AM 01/08
5 SSE Llano Largo            13.0 in   0700 AM 01/08
1 SSW Taos Ski Valley        12.0 in   0200 AM 01/08
5 WNW Eagle Nest Lake State  10.0 in   0500 AM 01/08
4 NNW Tres Ritos             9.0 in    0800 AM 01/08
1 S El Prado                 7.0 in    0726 AM 01/08
Shady Brook 5 E              5.3 in    0700 AM 01/08
Taos 1.6 SE                  5.0 in    0900 AM 01/08
Arroyo Seco 1.4 E            4.3 in    0800 AM 01/08
0 N Red River                4.0 in    0613 AM 01/08
San Cristobal 0.1 NE         4.0 in    0700 AM 01/08
Ranchos De Taos 2.4 W        4.0 in    0700 AM 01/08
Arroyo Seco 2.3 SW           3.7 in    0700 AM 01/08
9 NE Enchanted Forest XC Ski 3.0 in    0500 AM 01/08
Arroyo Hondo 1.5 S           2.2 in    1130 AM 01/08
Arroyo Hondo 4.8 WSW         2.1 in    0800 AM 01/08

...Torrance County...
Mountainair 8 NW             2.5 in    0700 AM 01/08
Estancia 9.4 NW              2.0 in    0700 AM 01/08
Encino 6 W                   0.6 in    0700 AM 01/08
Moriarty 1 NE                0.3 in    0700 AM 01/08
Moriarty 0.2 NNE             0.2 in    0700 AM 01/08

...Union County...
Clayton                      11.0 in   0945 AM 01/08
Capulin                      3.6 in    0600 PM 01/08
Clayton 14.6 SSW             0.2 in    0700 AM 01/08
&&
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

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