My Current Weather

Saturday, January 13, 2024

Waiting On The Invasion Of The Arctic Airmass!

January 13, 2024.
View of The North Side.
Capitan Mtns - State Hwy 246.

(5:30 AM MST Saturday, Jan 13, 2024).

(At 10 AM MST Saturday, Jan 13, 2024).




Analysis At 5 AM MST Saturday, Jan 13, 2024.

Forecast At 5 PM MST Saturday


Forecast At 5 AM MST Sunday.


NWS Watch/Warning Map.

Valid As Of 9:15 AM MST Saturday, Jan 13, 2024.
Click On The Map Link Above For The Latest Version.



Strong northwest winds will impact areas along and immediately east of the central mountain chain today. Peak gusts up to 60-70 mph will be possible. Gusts along I-25 between Las Vegas and Raton will be erratic in nature.


An Arctic airmass will invade northeastern NM today, spreading further into eastern NM Sunday and Monday. Highs will be in the single-digits in Union County and Clayton!! These "highs" will be 30- 45 degrees below normal!!


An Arctic airmass brings dangerously cold sub-zero wind chills to much of eastern NM Sunday through Tuesday mornings. Wind chills will fall into the -20s in parts of northeastern NM. This level of cold will threaten frostbite and hypothermia in the matter of minutes.


A another quick-moving winter storm system will bring snow to the northwest mountains tonight, spreading into north central NM Sunday. The higher snow accumulations look to favor the Tusas and Jemez mountains where a Winter Storm Warning is in effect.









Surface Temperature At 2 PM MST Saturday.


Apparent Temperature At 2 PM MST Saturday.


Temperature Anomaly At 2 PM MST Saturday.


Surface Temperature At 8 AM MST Tuesday.


Apparent Temperature At 8 AM MST Tuesday.


Temperature Anomaly At 8 AM MST Tuesday.


Still Waiting On The Invasion Of The Arctic Airmass!

Confusion in forecast model land once again makes figuring out the details of our impending arctic airmass invasion, and it's associated powerful arctic cold front difficult this Saturday morning. As far as the southeastern plains of New Mexico is concerned. It's coming but unfortunately at this time (Saturday morning) some of the details are still murky concerning ust how cold and for how long.

Strong winds just above the surface into the mid-levels of the atmosphere are battling with the southward push of the arctic cold front this Saturday morning. The initial surge of arctic air into the local area this afternoon or tonight will be relatively shallow. But in time the arctic airmass will deepen as reinforcing waves of colder air are sent southward into Southeastern New Mexico and nearby areas. 

Too shallow in fact to spill over the Sacramento, Capitan, and Guadalupe Mountains, and westward into southern New Mexico on Sunday it appears.This may possibly change in time.

If the arctic front wins this battle it will slide southward into the southeastern plains anywhere from this afternoon into Sunday morning. If the stronger winds aloft keep it pushed back to our north and east. Then this frontal passage may be delayed until Sunday afternoon or evening. And just to complicate matters. Once it does arrive it has the potential to slosh back and forth out of the southeastern plains, then back into eastern New Mexico and West Texas.

So it's not out of the question that we may see some wild temperatures swings until the deeper arctic airmass gets rooted into the southeastern plains, and banked up the east slopes of the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains Sunday, and into perhaps Wednesday. 

If the arctic airmass does win this battle then it's also not out of the question that some of us may drop below freezing tonight and not rise above freezing until Wednesday.

Over my lifetime I've witnessed this a number of times. The arctic cold front arrives in the southeastern plains say for example tonight. Temps crater to the teens and single digits. This may be one of those cases where it is warmer in Cloudcroft (8,751') over the next few days than it is in the Pecos Valley (3,300') and surrounding areas. I've seen temps in Cloudcroft in the 50's, while the Roswell-Artesia-Carlsbad-Tatum-Hobbs areas were only in the single digits and teens. With wind chill temps below zero.

Arctic airmasses tend to arrive faster and stay longer than computer model forecasts indicates. At sunrise this Saturday morning actual ambient air temperatures across the northern Rockies and Plains were as low as -40F with wind chill temps as low as -80F

There will be a stark temperature contrast ahead of the arctic frontal boundary and behind it. Temps will drop rapidly behind the actual front with wind shifting to the northeast. For example Carlsbad should see an afternoon high temp today in the mid 60's. While Clayton in the northeastern plains will struggle to reach 10F (with sunny skies) and a wind chill near -20F.

This mornings Canadian model forecast gives a worst case scenario Tuesday morning. Low temps of 0F to -10F across parts of the northeastern and eastern plains of New Mexico with wind chills of -10F to -21F.

For the Southeastern Plains Tuesday morning low temps in the single digits with wind chill temps in the 0F to -10F range, if not colder in places. This could change and I expect to see additional Wind Chill Advisories and Warnings issued by our local National Weather Service Offices later today into Sunday or Monday. 

Low clouds and areas of freezing fog, freezing mist, and freezing drizzle will be possible across the local area. This may pose some travel issues in some areas. At this time snow is not expected to add to our misery here locally.

Ranchers, farmers, livestock and pet owners now is the time to prepare to protect your animals from the impending brutal arctic outbreak than may last from tonight into Wednesday.

Oilfield operations and activities across Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas may be severely impacted from these very cold temperatures and bitterly cold and dangerous wind chill temperatures. 

The homeless across the local area will be venerable and at risk from these very cold temperatures and dangerous to life threatening wind chill temperatures as well. Anyone outside or especially those working outside from tonight into Wednesday, should be prepared for the possibility of Life Threatening Wind Chill Temperatures

Please check you local forecasts for your areas of interest often and be prepared for changes in our local forecasts, with the possibility of additional watches, warnings, and advisories being issued by our local National Weather Service Offices.

As always visit my local weather web page for all of the latest details on this event.


Summary Of The High Wind Event Thursday, Jan 11, 2024.

January 11, 2024.
Valverde St In Carlsbad, NM.
High Winds Snap This Large tree Branch.






The Carlsbad Airport ASOS reported a peak wind gust this past Thursday of 62 mph. By the way the Guadalupe Pass ASOS has been out of service for a couple of months now. 

Other local gusts recorded and reported include:

New Village Hardware Store Personal Weather Station (PWS) in Cloudcroft 85 mph.
Wink Airport ASOS 69 mph.
Cosmic Raws at Apache Point near Sunspot 65 mph.
High Rolls Personal Weather Station (PWS) 65 mph.
Bat Draw Raws at the Carlsbad Caverns Visitor Center 61 mph.
Tatum Mesonet Station 2SW 61 mph.
Roswell Industrial Air Center Airport ASOS 60 mph. 
Nogal NMCC Station 60 mph. 

The Artesia Airport AWOS 59 mph...may have been higher due to missing reports during a power outage. A power line was reported blown down on Canal street in Carlsbad. 


Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
802 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024

...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS...

Location                     Speed     Time/Date

...New Mexico...

...Bernalillo County...
Albuquerque Intl Sunport     51 MPH    1041 AM 01/11
I-40 Sedillo Hill (NMDOT)    42 MPH    0725 PM 01/11
Albuquerque 7 NW             38 MPH    0908 AM 01/11
Cedro 4 WSW (Sandia Lab)     38 MPH    1253 PM 01/11
Double Eagle II Arpt         35 MPH    1247 PM 01/11

...Catron County...
Datil 11 NNE (Datil)         48 MPH    0511 PM 01/11
Old Horse Springs 19 SSE (Pe 43 MPH    0338 PM 01/11
Quemado Lake 6 SSE (Slaughte 35 MPH    0412 PM 01/11

...Chaves County...
Roswell Air Center           60 MPH    0311 PM 01/11
Hagerman                     55 MPH    0220 PM 01/11
Dexter                       52 MPH    0215 PM 01/11
Dunken 2 NE (Dunken)         51 MPH    0336 PM 01/11
Bitter Lake WL Refuge 14 NNE 47 MPH    0337 PM 01/11
Roswell No. 1 Portable       44 MPH    0140 PM 01/11
North Roswell                37 MPH    0225 PM 01/11

...Cibola County...
Grants-Milan Airport         46 MPH    0615 AM 01/11
1 N New Laguna (Laguna)      42 MPH    1233 PM 01/11
El Morro 16 SSE (Malpais Lav 40 MPH    1125 AM 01/11
I-40 At Sr6                  40 MPH    1154 AM 01/11

...Colfax County...
Raton Crews Airport          40 MPH    0215 PM 01/11

...Curry County...
St. Vrain                    58 MPH    0345 PM 01/11
Cannon Air Force Base        49 MPH    0356 PM 01/11
Clovis Muni Airport          45 MPH    0410 PM 01/11
Clovis Asc                   39 MPH    0400 PM 01/11

...De Baca County...
South Ft Sumner              54 MPH    0255 PM 01/11
East Fort Sumner             52 MPH    1250 PM 01/11
Canyon Blanco                46 MPH    0235 PM 01/11
Yeso                         35 MPH    1140 AM 01/11

...Guadalupe County...
Se Vaughn                    58 MPH    0205 PM 01/11
Puerto De Luna 3.3e          57 MPH    1210 PM 01/11
Newkirk                      57 MPH    1245 PM 01/11
Thompson Cattle              46 MPH    1010 AM 01/11
Santa Rosa Airport           41 MPH    1035 AM 01/11
Cuervo 3.5 NE (UPR)          40 MPH    1118 AM 01/11
Pastura 2 NE (UPR)           35 MPH    0940 AM 01/11

...Harding County...
Mills 4 WSW (Mills Canyon)   35 MPH    0105 PM 01/11

...Lincoln County...
Nogal                        54 MPH    0705 PM 01/11
Oscuro 4 NE (UPR)            50 MPH    0110 PM 01/11
Ruidoso 1 NNW (Smokey Bear)  49 MPH    0300 PM 01/11
Sierra Blanca Rgnl Arpt      49 MPH    0835 AM 01/11
Oscura Range Camp (WSMR)     48 MPH    0125 PM 01/11
Roswell No. 2 Portable       47 MPH    0320 PM 01/11
Nogal 5 NW                   46 MPH    0446 PM 01/11
Shist (WSMR)                 45 MPH    0400 PM 01/11
Carrizozo 1 WNW              42 MPH    1245 PM 01/11
Carrizozo 1w                 37 MPH    1245 PM 01/11
Ancho 10 NE (UPR)            36 MPH    0118 PM 01/11

...Los Alamos County...
Los Alamos 5 SSW (LANL)      38 MPH    0745 PM 01/11

...McKinley County...
Gallup Airport               36 MPH    0452 AM 01/11

...Quay County...
Tucumcari                    61 MPH    0125 PM 01/11
Logan                        48 MPH    0150 PM 01/11
Endee 2 SW                   45 MPH    1122 AM 01/11
Tucumcari 9 NE  (UPR)        42 MPH    0136 PM 01/11
Tucumcari Asc                37 MPH    1120 AM 01/11

...Rio Arriba County...
Alcalde Asc                  40 MPH    0710 PM 01/11

...Roosevelt County...
Dora 2 SW                    64 MPH    0350 PM 01/11
Tolar 13 SE (Melrose Range)  48 MPH    0414 PM 01/11
Roosevelt Swcd               47 MPH    0405 PM 01/11
Dora                         46 MPH    0410 PM 01/11
12 SE Tolar                  41 MPH    0333 PM 01/11

...San Juan County...
San Juan Swcd                37 MPH    0530 PM 01/11

...San Miguel County...
I-25 At Rowe                 43 MPH    0220 PM 01/11
Las Vegas Muni Airport       41 MPH    1129 AM 01/11
Bell Ranch 11 ENE            35 MPH    0450 PM 01/11

...Sandoval County...
Bernalillo 3 E               51 MPH    1100 AM 01/11
Rio Rancho                   40 MPH    1100 AM 01/11
Placitas 6 SE                40 MPH    1045 AM 01/11
Jemez Springs (DRI)          40 MPH    0640 PM 01/11

...Santa Fe County...
I-25 At La Bajada            42 MPH    1250 PM 01/11
Edgewood 4 ENE               40 MPH    0745 PM 01/11
Santa Fe Muni Airport        37 MPH    0154 PM 01/11

...Socorro County...
Carrizozo 15 NW (Chupadera)  86 MPH    0439 PM 01/11
Little Burro (WSMR)          59 MPH    0510 PM 01/11
Stallion WIT (WSMR)          56 MPH    0500 PM 01/11
North Oscura Peak (WSMR)     51 MPH    1230 PM 01/11
Zumwalt Track (WSMR)         51 MPH    0335 PM 01/11
Mine (WSMR)                  47 MPH    1205 PM 01/11
Contreras 1 ESE (Sevilleta)  46 MPH    1111 AM 01/11
Sulf (WSMR)                  45 MPH    0315 PM 01/11
Socorro Airport              43 MPH    0555 PM 01/11
Claunch                      40 MPH    0130 PM 01/11
Las Nutrias 1 WNW            39 MPH    0230 PM 01/11
Harry (WSMR)                 39 MPH    1210 PM 01/11
Tower 6 (WSMR)               39 MPH    0720 PM 01/11
Stallion Runway (WSMR)       37 MPH    0245 PM 01/11
Bosque Del Apache 1 NNE (Bos 36 MPH    0150 AM 01/11
VLA 16 SSE (Magdalena)       35 MPH    0503 PM 01/11

...Torrance County...
Clines Corners 1 SSE         54 MPH    1254 PM 01/11
Edgewood Swcd                48 MPH    1055 AM 01/11
Estancia 7 SSW               46 MPH    0730 PM 01/11
Estancia 2 WSW               45 MPH    0709 PM 01/11
Moriarty Muni Airport        40 MPH    0235 PM 01/11
Abo 3 N                      38 MPH    1200 PM 01/11
1 W Mountainair (Mountainair 38 MPH    1205 PM 01/11
Corona Range Lrc             35 MPH    0145 PM 01/11

...Union County...
Clayton Lrc                  48 MPH    0200 PM 01/11
Amistad                      45 MPH    0505 PM 01/11
Clayton Muni Airpark         45 MPH    0324 PM 01/11
South Clayton                45 MPH    0550 PM 01/11
Sedan                        40 MPH    1105 AM 01/11

...Valencia County...
Valencia Swcd                45 MPH    0140 PM 01/11
Belen Regional Airport       43 MPH    0155 PM 01/11
&&
NWS El Paso Peak Wind Gusts Thursday. 
ublic Information Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
838 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024

...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS...

Location                     Speed     Time/Date       Lat/Lon/Elev (ft.)

...New Mexico...

...Dona Ana County...
San Agustin Pass 1.6 E Organ 96 MPH    0420 PM 01/11   32.43N/106.57W/5901
WSMR Main Post               74 MPH    1245 PM 01/11   32.37N/106.49W/4274
WSMR Apache                  66 MPH    1235 PM 01/11   32.63N/106.39W/3951
Condron Field (WSMR)         65 MPH    1255 PM 01/11   32.34N/106.41W/3914
WSMR Building 1830           64 MPH    0520 AM 01/11   32.37N/106.47W/4189
Globe                        63 MPH    0150 PM 01/11   32.38N/106.47W/4187
WSMR C-Station               62 MPH    0440 PM 01/11   32.36N/106.38W/4005
WSMR Museum                  62 MPH    0115 PM 01/11   32.38N/106.48W/4238
Brillo West                  62 MPH    0455 AM 01/11   32.96N/106.54W/4117
Cdrrc Camp Location          61 MPH    0200 PM 01/11   32.58N/106.87W/4400
San Andres RAWS              60 MPH    0301 PM 01/11   32.58N/106.53W/6138
WSMR LC-32                   60 MPH    0310 PM 01/11   32.41N/106.40W/3955
Delta Clipper                60 MPH    0200 PM 01/11   32.90N/106.41W/3910
Las Cruces AWOS              59 MPH    0415 PM 01/11   32.27N/106.92W/4403
Santa Teresa NWS RSOIS       59 MPH    0445 PM 01/11   31.87N/106.70W/4115
Las Cruces                   57 MPH    0415 PM 01/11   32.36N/106.72W/4314
South Radium Springs         56 MPH    0305 PM 01/11   32.48N/106.90W/3954
Dripping Springs RAWS        55 MPH    0426 PM 01/11   32.32N/106.59W/5885
WSMR Rad                     55 MPH    1250 PM 01/11   32.80N/106.50W/4320
WSMR Pony                    55 MPH    0240 PM 01/11   32.87N/106.49W/4039
WSMR EMRE                    54 MPH    0115 PM 01/11   32.47N/106.50W/5045
Butterfield Trail Ranch      51 MPH    0345 PM 01/11   32.26N/107.24W/4328
Las Cruces                   51 MPH    0415 PM 01/11   32.35N/106.73W/4268
Santa Teresa AWOS            51 MPH    0155 PM 01/11   31.88N/106.70W/4110
Msa Tower 13                 50 MPH    0215 PM 01/11   32.58N/106.67W/4425
Chihuahuan Desert Rangeland  49 MPH    0305 PM 01/11   32.53N/106.81W/4353
Las Cruces - High Ridge (DAC 48 MPH    0415 PM 01/11   32.38N/106.74W/4324
Las Cruces - S Fork LC Arroy 47 MPH    0415 PM 01/11   32.34N/106.71W/4325
Afton (DACFC)                46 MPH    1243 PM 01/11   32.11N/106.85W/4238
Las Cruces - Las Colinas     46 MPH    0418 PM 01/11   32.38N/106.74W/4320
Las Cruces - Tierra Grande ( 46 MPH    0415 PM 01/11   32.39N/106.67W/4550
High Valley (DACFC)          45 MPH    0129 PM 01/11   32.14N/106.59W/4210
Las Cruces - Little Dam Arro 45 MPH    0414 PM 01/11   32.33N/106.72W/4265
Chaparral Fire Station (DACF 44 MPH    0144 PM 01/11   32.04N/106.39W/4079
Dona Ana County Fairgrounds  44 MPH    0414 PM 01/11   32.26N/106.97W/4432
La Union                     44 MPH    0200 PM 01/11   31.96N/106.65W/3280
Santa Teresa Fire Station (D 44 MPH    0453 PM 01/11   31.86N/106.64W/3825
Las Cruces - N Fork LC Arroy 41 MPH    0429 PM 01/11   32.35N/106.70W/4406
La Union (DACFC)             41 MPH    0444 PM 01/11   31.95N/106.67W/3835
Las Cruces - East Mesa       40 MPH    0416 PM 01/11   32.40N/106.68W/4474
Alamogordo - La Mesa Drive   40 MPH    0420 PM 01/11   32.34N/106.74W/4218
Organ (DACFC)                40 MPH    0414 PM 01/11   32.42N/106.60W/5173

...Grant County...
Burro Mountain RAWS          59 MPH    0459 PM 01/11   32.67N/108.54W/6964
Silver City - Mountain View  55 MPH    0301 PM 01/11   32.77N/108.26W/6105
Grant County Airport AWOS    49 MPH    0315 PM 01/11   32.63N/108.15W/5377
Pinos Altos                  40 MPH    0430 PM 01/11   32.87N/108.22W/6771

...Hidalgo County...
Lordsburg Playa I10 MP13 (NM 66 MPH    0245 PM 01/11   32.32N/108.81W/4265
Lordsburg Playa I10 MP11 (NM 62 MPH    0245 PM 01/11   32.28N/108.88W/4148
Lordsburg Playa I10 MP9 (NMD 61 MPH    0245 PM 01/11   32.27N/108.90W/4152
Hachita Valley               59 MPH    0240 PM 01/11   31.70N/108.34W/4291
Lordsburg Playa I10 MP12 (NM 59 MPH    0245 PM 01/11   32.29N/108.87W/4147
Lordsburg Playa I10 MP7 (NMD 59 MPH    0245 PM 01/11   32.25N/108.93W/4158
North Lordsburg Playa        57 MPH    0115 PM 01/11   32.25N/108.95W/4166
1 SE Lordsburg               46 MPH    0504 PM 01/11   32.33N/108.69W/4288
Chiricahua Desert Museum     43 MPH    1000 AM 01/11   31.87N/109.02W/4088

...Luna County...
Deming ASOS                  61 MPH    0238 PM 01/11   32.27N/107.72W/4303
Josefita Rd Fd               46 MPH    0330 PM 01/11   32.24N/107.54W/4144
Mac Ranch                    45 MPH    1225 PM 01/11   32.07N/107.85W/4231

...Otero County...
High Rolls                   65 MPH    0134 PM 01/11   32.94N/105.84W/6840
Mescalero RAWS               58 MPH    1241 PM 01/11   33.16N/105.77W/6227
Orogrande Gate (WSMR)        56 MPH    0425 PM 01/11   32.41N/106.15W/4183
Glover                       55 MPH    0310 PM 01/11   32.58N/106.26W/3976
WSMR Tula                    54 MPH    0135 PM 01/11   33.07N/106.18W/4104
WSMR LC-36                   54 MPH    1255 PM 01/11   32.42N/106.32W/4040
Holloman AFB AWOS            53 MPH    0151 PM 01/11   32.85N/106.08W/4083
McGregor Range RAWS          53 MPH    0237 PM 01/11   32.43N/105.62W/4886
Lincoln Portable             53 MPH    0530 AM 01/11   32.96N/105.48W/7394
WSMR ABC-1                   53 MPH    0150 PM 01/11   33.16N/106.33W/4024
Lc-35 North                  53 MPH    0415 PM 01/11   32.44N/106.34W/3999
Alamogordo AWOS              51 MPH    0215 PM 01/11   32.82N/105.97W/4144
Malone                       51 MPH    0200 PM 01/11   32.90N/106.10W/4104
WSMR Tula Airstrip           50 MPH    0200 PM 01/11   33.06N/106.15W/4151
WSMR Frequency               49 MPH    0235 PM 01/11   32.82N/106.15W/4062
Timberon                     48 MPH    0230 PM 01/11   32.64N/105.69W/7001
Russ                         47 MPH    0140 PM 01/11   33.32N/106.12W/4428
Mayhill RAWS                 42 MPH    0101 PM 01/11   32.91N/105.47W/6471
Mayhill - Dimension Point Ob 41 MPH    1230 PM 01/11   32.91N/105.53W/7181
MAYHILL                      40 MPH    0557 AM 01/11   32.90N/105.53W/7299
WSMR Rita                    40 MPH    0150 PM 01/11   33.18N/106.15W/4236

...Sierra County...
Salinas Peak (WSMR)          76 MPH    1245 PM 01/11   33.30N/106.53W/8933
WSMR Salt Creek              61 MPH    0115 PM 01/11   33.12N/106.36W/4055
WSMR Jallen Hawk 40          59 MPH    0105 PM 01/11   33.17N/106.49W/4058
19 ESE Truth Or Consequences 56 MPH    1255 PM 01/11   32.98N/106.97W/4596
WSMR Denver WIT              56 MPH    0150 PM 01/11   33.24N/106.36W/4084
T-or-C ASOS                  53 MPH    0445 PM 01/11   33.23N/107.27W/4813
WSMR Alt Shist               50 MPH    0230 PM 01/11   33.44N/106.41W/4679
T Or C Golf Course           46 MPH    0505 PM 01/11   33.15N/107.26W/4394
Arrey 2N                     42 MPH    1215 PM 01/11   32.88N/107.31W/4174
WSMR Rob                     41 MPH    0145 PM 01/11   33.39N/106.66W/5124

...Texas...

...El Paso County...
South Franklin Peak          71 MPH    0339 PM 01/11   31.86N/106.49W/6791
El Paso International Airpor 67 MPH    0705 PM 01/11   31.82N/106.38W/3926
Biggs Field AWOS             62 MPH    0202 PM 01/11   31.85N/106.38W/3920
El Paso NE - K5IA            55 MPH    0819 PM 01/11   31.91N/106.41W/3950
El Paso NE - KB5HPT          47 MPH    1130 AM 01/11   31.92N/106.43W/4006

...Hudspeth County...
Sierra Blanca (TTU/WTM)      60 MPH    0217 PM 01/11   31.16N/105.35W/4560
Dell City (TTU/WTM)          59 MPH    0144 PM 01/11   31.95N/105.20W/3708
&&

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

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