Waiting On The Invasion Of The Arctic Airmass!
View of The North Side.
Capitan Mtns - State Hwy 246.
(5:30 AM MST Saturday, Jan 13, 2024).
(At 10 AM MST Saturday, Jan 13, 2024).
Forecast At 5 PM MST Saturday
Click On The Map Link Above For The Latest Version.
Strong northwest winds will impact areas along and immediately east of the central mountain chain today. Peak gusts up to 60-70 mph will be possible. Gusts along I-25 between Las Vegas and Raton will be erratic in nature.
An Arctic airmass brings dangerously cold sub-zero wind chills to much of eastern NM Sunday through Tuesday mornings. Wind chills will fall into the -20s in parts of northeastern NM. This level of cold will threaten frostbite and hypothermia in the matter of minutes.
A another quick-moving winter storm system will bring snow to the northwest mountains tonight, spreading into north central NM Sunday. The higher snow accumulations look to favor the Tusas and Jemez mountains where a Winter Storm Warning is in effect.
Surface Temperature At 2 PM MST Saturday.
Apparent Temperature At 2 PM MST Saturday.
Temperature Anomaly At 2 PM MST Saturday.
Surface Temperature At 8 AM MST Tuesday.
Temperature Anomaly At 8 AM MST Tuesday.
Still Waiting On The Invasion Of The Arctic Airmass!
Confusion in forecast model land once again makes figuring out the details of our impending arctic airmass invasion, and it's associated powerful arctic cold front difficult this Saturday morning. As far as the southeastern plains of New Mexico is concerned. It's coming but unfortunately at this time (Saturday morning) some of the details are still murky concerning ust how cold and for how long.
Strong winds just above the surface into the mid-levels of the atmosphere are battling with the southward push of the arctic cold front this Saturday morning. The initial surge of arctic air into the local area this afternoon or tonight will be relatively shallow. But in time the arctic airmass will deepen as reinforcing waves of colder air are sent southward into Southeastern New Mexico and nearby areas.
Too shallow in fact to spill over the Sacramento, Capitan, and Guadalupe Mountains, and westward into southern New Mexico on Sunday it appears.This may possibly change in time.
If the arctic front wins this battle it will slide southward into the southeastern plains anywhere from this afternoon into Sunday morning. If the stronger winds aloft keep it pushed back to our north and east. Then this frontal passage may be delayed until Sunday afternoon or evening. And just to complicate matters. Once it does arrive it has the potential to slosh back and forth out of the southeastern plains, then back into eastern New Mexico and West Texas.
So it's not out of the question that we may see some wild temperatures swings until the deeper arctic airmass gets rooted into the southeastern plains, and banked up the east slopes of the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains Sunday, and into perhaps Wednesday.
If the arctic airmass does win this battle then it's also not out of the question that some of us may drop below freezing tonight and not rise above freezing until Wednesday.
Over my lifetime I've witnessed this a number of times. The arctic cold front arrives in the southeastern plains say for example tonight. Temps crater to the teens and single digits. This may be one of those cases where it is warmer in Cloudcroft (8,751') over the next few days than it is in the Pecos Valley (3,300') and surrounding areas. I've seen temps in Cloudcroft in the 50's, while the Roswell-Artesia-Carlsbad-Tatum-Hobbs areas were only in the single digits and teens. With wind chill temps below zero.
Arctic airmasses tend to arrive faster and stay longer than computer model forecasts indicates. At sunrise this Saturday morning actual ambient air temperatures across the northern Rockies and Plains were as low as -40F with wind chill temps as low as -80F.
There will be a stark temperature contrast ahead of the arctic frontal boundary and behind it. Temps will drop rapidly behind the actual front with wind shifting to the northeast. For example Carlsbad should see an afternoon high temp today in the mid 60's. While Clayton in the northeastern plains will struggle to reach 10F (with sunny skies) and a wind chill near -20F.
This mornings Canadian model forecast gives a worst case scenario Tuesday morning. Low temps of 0F to -10F across parts of the northeastern and eastern plains of New Mexico with wind chills of -10F to -21F.
For the Southeastern Plains Tuesday morning low temps in the single digits with wind chill temps in the 0F to -10F range, if not colder in places. This could change and I expect to see additional Wind Chill Advisories and Warnings issued by our local National Weather Service Offices later today into Sunday or Monday.
Low clouds and areas of freezing fog, freezing mist, and freezing drizzle will be possible across the local area. This may pose some travel issues in some areas. At this time snow is not expected to add to our misery here locally.
Ranchers, farmers, livestock and pet owners now is the time to prepare to protect your animals from the impending brutal arctic outbreak than may last from tonight into Wednesday.
Oilfield operations and activities across Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas may be severely impacted from these very cold temperatures and bitterly cold and dangerous wind chill temperatures.
The homeless across the local area will be venerable and at risk from these very cold temperatures and dangerous to life threatening wind chill temperatures as well. Anyone outside or especially those working outside from tonight into Wednesday, should be prepared for the possibility of Life Threatening Wind Chill Temperatures.
Please check you local forecasts for your areas of interest often and be prepared for changes in our local forecasts, with the possibility of additional watches, warnings, and advisories being issued by our local National Weather Service Offices.
As always visit my local weather web page for all of the latest details on this event.
Summary Of The High Wind Event Thursday, Jan 11, 2024.
Valverde St In Carlsbad, NM.
High Winds Snap This Large tree Branch.
The Carlsbad Airport ASOS reported a peak wind gust this past Thursday of 62 mph. By the way the Guadalupe Pass ASOS has been out of service for a couple of months now.
Other local gusts recorded and reported include:
New Village Hardware Store Personal Weather Station (PWS) in Cloudcroft 85 mph.
Wink Airport ASOS 69 mph.
Cosmic Raws at Apache Point near Sunspot 65 mph.
High Rolls Personal Weather Station (PWS) 65 mph.
Bat Draw Raws at the Carlsbad Caverns Visitor Center 61 mph.
Tatum Mesonet Station 2SW 61 mph.
Roswell Industrial Air Center Airport ASOS 60 mph.
Nogal NMCC Station 60 mph.
The Artesia Airport AWOS 59 mph...may have been higher due to missing reports during a power outage. A power line was reported blown down on Canal street in Carlsbad.
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
802 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024
...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS...
Location Speed Time/Date
...New Mexico...
...Bernalillo County...
Albuquerque Intl Sunport 51 MPH 1041 AM 01/11
I-40 Sedillo Hill (NMDOT) 42 MPH 0725 PM 01/11
Albuquerque 7 NW 38 MPH 0908 AM 01/11
Cedro 4 WSW (Sandia Lab) 38 MPH 1253 PM 01/11
Double Eagle II Arpt 35 MPH 1247 PM 01/11
...Catron County...
Datil 11 NNE (Datil) 48 MPH 0511 PM 01/11
Old Horse Springs 19 SSE (Pe 43 MPH 0338 PM 01/11
Quemado Lake 6 SSE (Slaughte 35 MPH 0412 PM 01/11
...Chaves County...
Roswell Air Center 60 MPH 0311 PM 01/11
Hagerman 55 MPH 0220 PM 01/11
Dexter 52 MPH 0215 PM 01/11
Dunken 2 NE (Dunken) 51 MPH 0336 PM 01/11
Bitter Lake WL Refuge 14 NNE 47 MPH 0337 PM 01/11
Roswell No. 1 Portable 44 MPH 0140 PM 01/11
North Roswell 37 MPH 0225 PM 01/11
...Cibola County...
Grants-Milan Airport 46 MPH 0615 AM 01/11
1 N New Laguna (Laguna) 42 MPH 1233 PM 01/11
El Morro 16 SSE (Malpais Lav 40 MPH 1125 AM 01/11
I-40 At Sr6 40 MPH 1154 AM 01/11
...Colfax County...
Raton Crews Airport 40 MPH 0215 PM 01/11
...Curry County...
St. Vrain 58 MPH 0345 PM 01/11
Cannon Air Force Base 49 MPH 0356 PM 01/11
Clovis Muni Airport 45 MPH 0410 PM 01/11
Clovis Asc 39 MPH 0400 PM 01/11
...De Baca County...
South Ft Sumner 54 MPH 0255 PM 01/11
East Fort Sumner 52 MPH 1250 PM 01/11
Canyon Blanco 46 MPH 0235 PM 01/11
Yeso 35 MPH 1140 AM 01/11
...Guadalupe County...
Se Vaughn 58 MPH 0205 PM 01/11
Puerto De Luna 3.3e 57 MPH 1210 PM 01/11
Newkirk 57 MPH 1245 PM 01/11
Thompson Cattle 46 MPH 1010 AM 01/11
Santa Rosa Airport 41 MPH 1035 AM 01/11
Cuervo 3.5 NE (UPR) 40 MPH 1118 AM 01/11
Pastura 2 NE (UPR) 35 MPH 0940 AM 01/11
...Harding County...
Mills 4 WSW (Mills Canyon) 35 MPH 0105 PM 01/11
...Lincoln County...
Nogal 54 MPH 0705 PM 01/11
Oscuro 4 NE (UPR) 50 MPH 0110 PM 01/11
Ruidoso 1 NNW (Smokey Bear) 49 MPH 0300 PM 01/11
Sierra Blanca Rgnl Arpt 49 MPH 0835 AM 01/11
Oscura Range Camp (WSMR) 48 MPH 0125 PM 01/11
Roswell No. 2 Portable 47 MPH 0320 PM 01/11
Nogal 5 NW 46 MPH 0446 PM 01/11
Shist (WSMR) 45 MPH 0400 PM 01/11
Carrizozo 1 WNW 42 MPH 1245 PM 01/11
Carrizozo 1w 37 MPH 1245 PM 01/11
Ancho 10 NE (UPR) 36 MPH 0118 PM 01/11
...Los Alamos County...
Los Alamos 5 SSW (LANL) 38 MPH 0745 PM 01/11
...McKinley County...
Gallup Airport 36 MPH 0452 AM 01/11
...Quay County...
Tucumcari 61 MPH 0125 PM 01/11
Logan 48 MPH 0150 PM 01/11
Endee 2 SW 45 MPH 1122 AM 01/11
Tucumcari 9 NE (UPR) 42 MPH 0136 PM 01/11
Tucumcari Asc 37 MPH 1120 AM 01/11
...Rio Arriba County...
Alcalde Asc 40 MPH 0710 PM 01/11
...Roosevelt County...
Dora 2 SW 64 MPH 0350 PM 01/11
Tolar 13 SE (Melrose Range) 48 MPH 0414 PM 01/11
Roosevelt Swcd 47 MPH 0405 PM 01/11
Dora 46 MPH 0410 PM 01/11
12 SE Tolar 41 MPH 0333 PM 01/11
...San Juan County...
San Juan Swcd 37 MPH 0530 PM 01/11
...San Miguel County...
I-25 At Rowe 43 MPH 0220 PM 01/11
Las Vegas Muni Airport 41 MPH 1129 AM 01/11
Bell Ranch 11 ENE 35 MPH 0450 PM 01/11
...Sandoval County...
Bernalillo 3 E 51 MPH 1100 AM 01/11
Rio Rancho 40 MPH 1100 AM 01/11
Placitas 6 SE 40 MPH 1045 AM 01/11
Jemez Springs (DRI) 40 MPH 0640 PM 01/11
...Santa Fe County...
I-25 At La Bajada 42 MPH 1250 PM 01/11
Edgewood 4 ENE 40 MPH 0745 PM 01/11
Santa Fe Muni Airport 37 MPH 0154 PM 01/11
...Socorro County...
Carrizozo 15 NW (Chupadera) 86 MPH 0439 PM 01/11
Little Burro (WSMR) 59 MPH 0510 PM 01/11
Stallion WIT (WSMR) 56 MPH 0500 PM 01/11
North Oscura Peak (WSMR) 51 MPH 1230 PM 01/11
Zumwalt Track (WSMR) 51 MPH 0335 PM 01/11
Mine (WSMR) 47 MPH 1205 PM 01/11
Contreras 1 ESE (Sevilleta) 46 MPH 1111 AM 01/11
Sulf (WSMR) 45 MPH 0315 PM 01/11
Socorro Airport 43 MPH 0555 PM 01/11
Claunch 40 MPH 0130 PM 01/11
Las Nutrias 1 WNW 39 MPH 0230 PM 01/11
Harry (WSMR) 39 MPH 1210 PM 01/11
Tower 6 (WSMR) 39 MPH 0720 PM 01/11
Stallion Runway (WSMR) 37 MPH 0245 PM 01/11
Bosque Del Apache 1 NNE (Bos 36 MPH 0150 AM 01/11
VLA 16 SSE (Magdalena) 35 MPH 0503 PM 01/11
...Torrance County...
Clines Corners 1 SSE 54 MPH 1254 PM 01/11
Edgewood Swcd 48 MPH 1055 AM 01/11
Estancia 7 SSW 46 MPH 0730 PM 01/11
Estancia 2 WSW 45 MPH 0709 PM 01/11
Moriarty Muni Airport 40 MPH 0235 PM 01/11
Abo 3 N 38 MPH 1200 PM 01/11
1 W Mountainair (Mountainair 38 MPH 1205 PM 01/11
Corona Range Lrc 35 MPH 0145 PM 01/11
...Union County...
Clayton Lrc 48 MPH 0200 PM 01/11
Amistad 45 MPH 0505 PM 01/11
Clayton Muni Airpark 45 MPH 0324 PM 01/11
South Clayton 45 MPH 0550 PM 01/11
Sedan 40 MPH 1105 AM 01/11
...Valencia County...
Valencia Swcd 45 MPH 0140 PM 01/11
Belen Regional Airport 43 MPH 0155 PM 01/11
&&NWS El Paso Peak Wind Gusts Thursday. ublic Information Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
838 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024
...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS...
Location Speed Time/Date Lat/Lon/Elev (ft.)
...New Mexico...
...Dona Ana County...
San Agustin Pass 1.6 E Organ 96 MPH 0420 PM 01/11 32.43N/106.57W/5901
WSMR Main Post 74 MPH 1245 PM 01/11 32.37N/106.49W/4274
WSMR Apache 66 MPH 1235 PM 01/11 32.63N/106.39W/3951
Condron Field (WSMR) 65 MPH 1255 PM 01/11 32.34N/106.41W/3914
WSMR Building 1830 64 MPH 0520 AM 01/11 32.37N/106.47W/4189
Globe 63 MPH 0150 PM 01/11 32.38N/106.47W/4187
WSMR C-Station 62 MPH 0440 PM 01/11 32.36N/106.38W/4005
WSMR Museum 62 MPH 0115 PM 01/11 32.38N/106.48W/4238
Brillo West 62 MPH 0455 AM 01/11 32.96N/106.54W/4117
Cdrrc Camp Location 61 MPH 0200 PM 01/11 32.58N/106.87W/4400
San Andres RAWS 60 MPH 0301 PM 01/11 32.58N/106.53W/6138
WSMR LC-32 60 MPH 0310 PM 01/11 32.41N/106.40W/3955
Delta Clipper 60 MPH 0200 PM 01/11 32.90N/106.41W/3910
Las Cruces AWOS 59 MPH 0415 PM 01/11 32.27N/106.92W/4403
Santa Teresa NWS RSOIS 59 MPH 0445 PM 01/11 31.87N/106.70W/4115
Las Cruces 57 MPH 0415 PM 01/11 32.36N/106.72W/4314
South Radium Springs 56 MPH 0305 PM 01/11 32.48N/106.90W/3954
Dripping Springs RAWS 55 MPH 0426 PM 01/11 32.32N/106.59W/5885
WSMR Rad 55 MPH 1250 PM 01/11 32.80N/106.50W/4320
WSMR Pony 55 MPH 0240 PM 01/11 32.87N/106.49W/4039
WSMR EMRE 54 MPH 0115 PM 01/11 32.47N/106.50W/5045
Butterfield Trail Ranch 51 MPH 0345 PM 01/11 32.26N/107.24W/4328
Las Cruces 51 MPH 0415 PM 01/11 32.35N/106.73W/4268
Santa Teresa AWOS 51 MPH 0155 PM 01/11 31.88N/106.70W/4110
Msa Tower 13 50 MPH 0215 PM 01/11 32.58N/106.67W/4425
Chihuahuan Desert Rangeland 49 MPH 0305 PM 01/11 32.53N/106.81W/4353
Las Cruces - High Ridge (DAC 48 MPH 0415 PM 01/11 32.38N/106.74W/4324
Las Cruces - S Fork LC Arroy 47 MPH 0415 PM 01/11 32.34N/106.71W/4325
Afton (DACFC) 46 MPH 1243 PM 01/11 32.11N/106.85W/4238
Las Cruces - Las Colinas 46 MPH 0418 PM 01/11 32.38N/106.74W/4320
Las Cruces - Tierra Grande ( 46 MPH 0415 PM 01/11 32.39N/106.67W/4550
High Valley (DACFC) 45 MPH 0129 PM 01/11 32.14N/106.59W/4210
Las Cruces - Little Dam Arro 45 MPH 0414 PM 01/11 32.33N/106.72W/4265
Chaparral Fire Station (DACF 44 MPH 0144 PM 01/11 32.04N/106.39W/4079
Dona Ana County Fairgrounds 44 MPH 0414 PM 01/11 32.26N/106.97W/4432
La Union 44 MPH 0200 PM 01/11 31.96N/106.65W/3280
Santa Teresa Fire Station (D 44 MPH 0453 PM 01/11 31.86N/106.64W/3825
Las Cruces - N Fork LC Arroy 41 MPH 0429 PM 01/11 32.35N/106.70W/4406
La Union (DACFC) 41 MPH 0444 PM 01/11 31.95N/106.67W/3835
Las Cruces - East Mesa 40 MPH 0416 PM 01/11 32.40N/106.68W/4474
Alamogordo - La Mesa Drive 40 MPH 0420 PM 01/11 32.34N/106.74W/4218
Organ (DACFC) 40 MPH 0414 PM 01/11 32.42N/106.60W/5173
...Grant County...
Burro Mountain RAWS 59 MPH 0459 PM 01/11 32.67N/108.54W/6964
Silver City - Mountain View 55 MPH 0301 PM 01/11 32.77N/108.26W/6105
Grant County Airport AWOS 49 MPH 0315 PM 01/11 32.63N/108.15W/5377
Pinos Altos 40 MPH 0430 PM 01/11 32.87N/108.22W/6771
...Hidalgo County...
Lordsburg Playa I10 MP13 (NM 66 MPH 0245 PM 01/11 32.32N/108.81W/4265
Lordsburg Playa I10 MP11 (NM 62 MPH 0245 PM 01/11 32.28N/108.88W/4148
Lordsburg Playa I10 MP9 (NMD 61 MPH 0245 PM 01/11 32.27N/108.90W/4152
Hachita Valley 59 MPH 0240 PM 01/11 31.70N/108.34W/4291
Lordsburg Playa I10 MP12 (NM 59 MPH 0245 PM 01/11 32.29N/108.87W/4147
Lordsburg Playa I10 MP7 (NMD 59 MPH 0245 PM 01/11 32.25N/108.93W/4158
North Lordsburg Playa 57 MPH 0115 PM 01/11 32.25N/108.95W/4166
1 SE Lordsburg 46 MPH 0504 PM 01/11 32.33N/108.69W/4288
Chiricahua Desert Museum 43 MPH 1000 AM 01/11 31.87N/109.02W/4088
...Luna County...
Deming ASOS 61 MPH 0238 PM 01/11 32.27N/107.72W/4303
Josefita Rd Fd 46 MPH 0330 PM 01/11 32.24N/107.54W/4144
Mac Ranch 45 MPH 1225 PM 01/11 32.07N/107.85W/4231
...Otero County...
High Rolls 65 MPH 0134 PM 01/11 32.94N/105.84W/6840
Mescalero RAWS 58 MPH 1241 PM 01/11 33.16N/105.77W/6227
Orogrande Gate (WSMR) 56 MPH 0425 PM 01/11 32.41N/106.15W/4183
Glover 55 MPH 0310 PM 01/11 32.58N/106.26W/3976
WSMR Tula 54 MPH 0135 PM 01/11 33.07N/106.18W/4104
WSMR LC-36 54 MPH 1255 PM 01/11 32.42N/106.32W/4040
Holloman AFB AWOS 53 MPH 0151 PM 01/11 32.85N/106.08W/4083
McGregor Range RAWS 53 MPH 0237 PM 01/11 32.43N/105.62W/4886
Lincoln Portable 53 MPH 0530 AM 01/11 32.96N/105.48W/7394
WSMR ABC-1 53 MPH 0150 PM 01/11 33.16N/106.33W/4024
Lc-35 North 53 MPH 0415 PM 01/11 32.44N/106.34W/3999
Alamogordo AWOS 51 MPH 0215 PM 01/11 32.82N/105.97W/4144
Malone 51 MPH 0200 PM 01/11 32.90N/106.10W/4104
WSMR Tula Airstrip 50 MPH 0200 PM 01/11 33.06N/106.15W/4151
WSMR Frequency 49 MPH 0235 PM 01/11 32.82N/106.15W/4062
Timberon 48 MPH 0230 PM 01/11 32.64N/105.69W/7001
Russ 47 MPH 0140 PM 01/11 33.32N/106.12W/4428
Mayhill RAWS 42 MPH 0101 PM 01/11 32.91N/105.47W/6471
Mayhill - Dimension Point Ob 41 MPH 1230 PM 01/11 32.91N/105.53W/7181
MAYHILL 40 MPH 0557 AM 01/11 32.90N/105.53W/7299
WSMR Rita 40 MPH 0150 PM 01/11 33.18N/106.15W/4236
...Sierra County...
Salinas Peak (WSMR) 76 MPH 1245 PM 01/11 33.30N/106.53W/8933
WSMR Salt Creek 61 MPH 0115 PM 01/11 33.12N/106.36W/4055
WSMR Jallen Hawk 40 59 MPH 0105 PM 01/11 33.17N/106.49W/4058
19 ESE Truth Or Consequences 56 MPH 1255 PM 01/11 32.98N/106.97W/4596
WSMR Denver WIT 56 MPH 0150 PM 01/11 33.24N/106.36W/4084
T-or-C ASOS 53 MPH 0445 PM 01/11 33.23N/107.27W/4813
WSMR Alt Shist 50 MPH 0230 PM 01/11 33.44N/106.41W/4679
T Or C Golf Course 46 MPH 0505 PM 01/11 33.15N/107.26W/4394
Arrey 2N 42 MPH 1215 PM 01/11 32.88N/107.31W/4174
WSMR Rob 41 MPH 0145 PM 01/11 33.39N/106.66W/5124
...Texas...
...El Paso County...
South Franklin Peak 71 MPH 0339 PM 01/11 31.86N/106.49W/6791
El Paso International Airpor 67 MPH 0705 PM 01/11 31.82N/106.38W/3926
Biggs Field AWOS 62 MPH 0202 PM 01/11 31.85N/106.38W/3920
El Paso NE - K5IA 55 MPH 0819 PM 01/11 31.91N/106.41W/3950
El Paso NE - KB5HPT 47 MPH 1130 AM 01/11 31.92N/106.43W/4006
...Hudspeth County...
Sierra Blanca (TTU/WTM) 60 MPH 0217 PM 01/11 31.16N/105.35W/4560
Dell City (TTU/WTM) 59 MPH 0144 PM 01/11 31.95N/105.20W/3708
&&There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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