One Weak Winter Storm Down - Two Stronger Storms Coming Up Especially The Third One!
Looking West Down US Hwy 70 From West Of Roswell.
Valid At 5 AM MST Saturday.
ECMWF 6-Hour QPF Precipitation Type & 1000-500 MB Thickness Forecast.
Valid At 5 AM MST Thursday Morning.
ECMWF Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.
(As Of 4 PM MST Tuesday, January 2, 2024).
Back To Back Storms Bring Winter Back Into New Mexico.
Happy New Year everyone!
I hope you had a great Christmas and New Year Holiday Season!
A weak winter storm traveled eastward across southern New Mexico today. It produced a dusting of light snow in the Cloudcroft and Ski Apache areas but nothing to get excited about.
A few light rain showers (mostly sprinkles) fell over the southeastern plains with the Bat Draw Raws at the Carlsbad Caverns National Park Visitor Center recording a whooping .01". Storm #1 is done with and gone.
Forecast models are projecting an active weather pattern setting up Wednesday night into at least the first of next week. Our next winter storm is on track to impact the state and local area Wednesday night into Friday. With a break on Saturday. The third winter storm will be much more impactful across the state starting Saturday night and continuing into the first of next week. This third storm will be the strongest and coldest of the three,.
Significant snows could fall across most mountain areas with this third storm with some lowland areas possibly seeing the white stuff. As always the details are a little murky this far out so expect changes and or additional winter storm watches, warnings, and advisories.
Lowland rains are also forecast but just how low the snow level goes especially with the storm late this weekend into early next week is still questionable.
Winter Storm Watches are in effect for parts of northern and northeastern New Mexico from late Wednesday night through late Thursday night. New snow accumulations greater than 5" are forecast above 6,500' with more than 10" above 8,500'.
As of this writing, there are no Winter Storm Watches or Advisories in effect for the Sacramento and Capitan Mountains for the Thursday storm. This may change as the storm gets closer.
However for now it appears that the Cloudcroft area could see 1" to 3" of snow from this next winter storm on Thursday. And perhaps 4" to 6" for the Ski Apache area. The third and stronger winter storm is forecast to impact the Sacramento and Capitan Mountains beginning Sunday night with strong winds and an increasing chance for snow.
A High Wind Watch has been issued for the Guadalupe Mountains for Thursday. West winds sustained at 40 to 50 mph with gusts to 75 mph are currently forecast.
It will be windy across the southeastern plains and the Sacramento and Capitan Mountains with southwest to west winds gusting up to around 30 to 40 mph on Thursday.
Keep checking your local forecasts in your areas of interest via your favorite weather information source or my weather web page...Welcome To Southeast New Mexico Weather.
Long-range forecasts over the next two weeks keep the storm track active and far enough south to continue the parade of winter storms into the state. Winter may show up after all for most of us lowlanders.