Model Trends Are Bringing The Storm Further North.
Lone Aspen Waiting On Spring In Russia Canyon South Of Cloudcroft, NM.
GFS 250 MB/34,000' MSL Jet Stream Analysis.
Valid @ 5 AM MST This Morning.
A 209 Knot or 240 MPH Jet Stream Wind Speed Maximum was located west of California early this morning. That's a really strong jet stream with lots of available energy that will transfer downward helping to fuel our digging upper level storm heading our way.
GFS 500 MB/18,000' MSL Analysis.
Valid @ 5 AM MST This Morning.
At sunrise this morning the recipient of that jet stream energy was closed upper level low forming along the Central California Coast. This potent storm will continue to dig to the southeast today into Wednesday. Model mayhem continues somewhat concerning the exact track, speed, and location of this storm. The GFS is pulling the cutoff upper level further to the north with its run this morning while the Canadian (GEM) and last nights European (ECMWF) keep it further south in Central Mexico.
GFS 500 MB/18,000' MSL Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Tuesday.
GFS 500 MB/18,000' MSL Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Tuesday.
As I had suspected yesterday this further northward forecast track of the cutoff upper level low to our south will give us a better chance of seeing more widespread rains and snows across the state. But the jury is still deliberating this scenario and as I mentioned the past couple of days the final outcome will be highly dependant upon the storms position.
GFS Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Wednesday.
NCEP NAM Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Wednesday.
NAM-WRF Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Wednesday.
NDFD (NWS) Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Wednesday.
WPC Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Wednesday.
A few light rain showers may break out over southeastern New Mexico later tonight but our best chances for seeing measurable rainfall will occur from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon. A few scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. As you can tell the models aren't agreeing very well concerning just how much rain and snow will fall locally. Again this is all dependent upon the exact track of the inbound storm and how long it lingers to our south.
GFS Accumulated Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Wednesday.
NAM-WRF Accumulated Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Wednesday.
NDFD (NWS) Accumulated Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Wednesday.
WPC (Worst Case Scenario) Accumulated Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Thursday.
Scattered thunderstorms some of which are forecast to become severe are expected to break out over parts of West Texas tonight...around midnight. A few severe thunderstorms are forecast to fire up along and east of the dryline and spread northeastward late tonight.
Ahead of the storm on the dry (west of the dryline) side of the dryline strong southwesterly winds gusting up to 35-40 mph are forecast this afternoon over the southeastern plains and parts of West Texas. Southwesterly winds will gust up to around 50 mph in the Guadalupe Mountains. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the area.
Ski Apache has received 143" of snow so far this season and they currently have a 50" base (at 9,600'). This storm will likely add to those totals but how much is still a little uncertain. Cloudcroft may pick up around 3" of new snow and Ruidoso an inch or so.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
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