Virga Shafts @ 1:44 PM MST This Afternoon Southwest-West Of Carlsbad, New Mexico.
NWS Midland Dual Pol Radar Snapshot.
Using GRLevel3_2.00 Software @ 1:16 PM MST This Afternoon.
Cannon AFB Dual Pol Radar Snapshot.
Using GRLevel3_2.00 Software @ 1:21 PM MST This Afternoon.
NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa Dual Pol Radar Snapshot.
Using GRLevel3_2.00 Software @ 1:29 PM MST This Afternoon.
As of 1 PM MST this afternoon our potent cutoff upper level low was located just south of Tucson in Northwestern Mexico. Looking at the latest RAP analysis loops it appears that the low continues to wobble to the southeast.
Disturbances rotating north and northeastward from around this storm are helping to produced scattered pockets of rain showers, a few isolated thunderstorms, across Northern Mexico and Southern New Mexico. Snows generally above 6,500' in the Sacramento Mountains of Southcentral New Mexico. Ski Apache webcam shows that the resort has heavy snow falling at 2 PM MST. Webcams in Ruidoso and Cloudcroft have also shown snow falling over the past hour.
Valid @ 11 PM MST Thursday Night.
Rain showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to continue this afternoon into the overnight hours and into Wednesday night across the local area. The models continue to struggle with their rainfall forecasts for the local area...based upon the forecast track and location of the upper level storm to our southwest. It appears that parts of southeastern New Mexico could see some moderate rainfall totals perhaps in the .25" to .75" range. This will be especially true if any one location happens to experience a thunderstorm or two and over or near the Mountains. Current forecasts indicate that the best chances for more widespread and heavy rains will remain across West Texas and eastward and over the Sacramento Mountains.
Eastern Texas, much of Arkansas, and parts of Louisiana are just going to get clobbered by this slow moving storm by Thursday night. Some locals in these areas may see 10" to 15" of rain by then.
Valid @ 11 PM MST Thursday.
Snowfall totals over the Sacramento Mountains remain a problem also again given the track and location of the upper level low. Using the 18Z/11 AM MST NAM-WRF forecast it appears Ski Apache could end up with a foot of snow out of this storm with the rest of the Sac's at the lower elevations anywhere from an inch or so up to maybe 6". Cloudcroft could see up to 3". Ruidoso maybe 1" or so.
No matter which forecast model you look through the heaviest snows are forecast to fall over the northern and Central Mountains of Mexico. Which is absolutely wild given that some of the higher locations may see a foot of snow or more!
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!