Let's Just Skip Fall & Plow Right Into Winter Next Week Shall We?
Let's Just Skip Fall & Go Right To Winter Shall WE?
An unusually strong mid-upper level heat ridge has camped out over the region this summer. It will continue to plaque us into Labor Day before it gets shoved westward by an incoming unusually strong mid-upper level short trough of low pressure/closed low next week. Locally we will see high temperatures today through the holiday weekend in the low to mid 90's, maybe a few upper 90's in a few places. Labor Day will see record heat with highs in the lower elevations in the low 100's. Then the bottom falls out of our thermometers next week with huge changes in our weather coming.
Valid At 6 PM MDT Tuesday, Sept 8, 2020.
Sunday will see the jet stream begin to dive southward from southern Canada and the northern U.S causing the heat ridge to move back to the west and northwest. What eventually happens to the unusually strong and cold approaching short wave trough is yet to be resolved by the models. For now, the European model seems to have the best handle on the forecast evolution of this storm. By mid-week, a closed low is forecast to be located near the Four Corners area. How cold it gets, how much rain falls, how much snow falls, and for how long is still not clear cut. But oh this one is going to lots of fun to watch pan out.
Surface Temperature Forecast.
Valid At Noon MDT Wednesday, Sept 9, 2020.
Surface Temperature Anomaly Forecast.
Valid At Noon MDT Wednesday, Sept 9, 2020.
NWS NDFD Forecast Record High Temperatures.
Record daily high temperatures are likely Labor Day ahead of the strong cold front across the region. By Tuesday, behind the front, record low temperatures are already forecast to occur and even more so on Wednesday. Tuesday, Wed, and maybe Thursday record daily low high temperatures are likely in the region along with more record low temperatures.
6-10 Day Temperature Outlook.
As the jet stream buckles and dives southward early next week a strong early-season cold front will plow southward and westward through New Mexico and West Texas Tuesday into Wednesday. Drastic drops in temperatures appear likely behind the cold front. Current forecasts indicate that highs in the Southeastern Plains on Monday will be around 101º. Highs on Wednesday behind the front in the much colder air mass may only be in the 40's midday. We potentially could and very well may see a 40º to 50º drop in our daytime highs Monday versus Wednesday. Believe it or not but it may even get cold enough to snow in the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains. his is not set in stone yet and may change but overall the theme towards colder, windier, and wetter weather is forecast.
Valid At 6 AM MDT Wednesday, Sept 10, 2020.
Although there likely will be changes with the forecast depicted above the overall theme towards much colder and wetter weather is obvious as depicted in this forecast map. Some New Mexicans are simply going to go from summer weather straight to winter weather within 24-hours, just skipping fall like it never even existed. Current forecast models indicate that snow levels in northern, north-central, and northeastern New Mexico may drop down to as low as 5,000' by Wednesday morning. Snow levels potentially may even drop down to around 7,000' in the Sacramento and Capitan Mountains. I know, crazy, right?
ECMWF Rainfall Forecast.
ECMWF Snowfall Forecast.
Another upcoming weather threat will likely be a severe weather outbreak ahead of the approaching cold front early next week. More on this later. If the European model turns out to be correct then all of the local area may see moderate to heavy rainfall and the higher elevations snow by the end of next week.
How Does This Compare Climatologically?
Looking at the local historical climatology records I came up with these stats for Sept 9th:
Roswell record coldest daytime high 68º in 1941.
Roswell record low-temperature 47º in 1953.
Artesia record coldest daytime high 70º in 1981.
Artesia record low-temperature 45º in 2004.
Carlsbad record coldest daytime high 68º in 1966, 1976.
Carlsbad record low-temperature 48º in 1953.
Ruidoso record coldest daytime high 64º in 1981.
Ruidoso record low-temperature 29º in 1984.
Cloudcroft record coldest daytime high 55º in 1981.
Cloudcroft record low-temperature 32º in 1953.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!