New Mexico Smoke -T-Storms - T.S. Sally.
6:35 PM MDT
Friday, Sept 11, 2020.
US Hwy 82 Just West Of Artesia.
Many Californians, Radical Leftist Politicians, and the Far Left Liberal Media are blaming President Trump for the disaster unfolding across the Western U.S. with the massive outbreak of forest fires. Which is absolutely absurd. Decades of failed mismanagement of the Forests by many of these Western States due to radical Environmental Policies have caused this, not President Trump.
Valid At 6 AM MDT Sunday, Sept 13, 2020.
8:41 AM MDT Sunday, Sept 13, 2020.
RAMMB/CIRA GeoColor Satellite Image.
8:41 AM MDT Sunday, Sept 13, 2020.
RAMMB/CIRA Water Vapor Satellite Image.
Sunday, Sept 13, 2020.
This Sunday morning's satellite images show that mid-level smoke from the West Coast Forest Fires continues to stream across the southern one half of New Mexico. Smoke from these fires is forecast to continue obscuring our skies today and Monday. Tropical Storm Sally is located off the southwestern coast of Florida.
T-Storms Back In Our Local Forecast.
Valid Today Through 6 PM MDT Monday.
An upper-level low has formed southwest of us in northern Old Mexico. A plume of mid-level moisture is being conveyed northeastward into southern New Mexico by the southwesterly flow aloft around this low. This combined with a weak frontal passage early this morning will boost our chances for scattered thunderstorms today into Monday. The models aren't handling this feature very well either. Isolated locally heavy rainfall will be possible with a few of these storms but overall a widespread soaking rainfall event does not appear in the cards.
Long-Range Forecasts.
Our record-breaking cold snap last week was a pattern breaker for us. I'll post more on the temperature records that were shattered later when more data is available. For now, anyway, the models indicate that our endless days of 100º has ended. This isn't to say that we still can't or won't reach 100º again before our first freeze, but in the near-term, this isn't forecast. By all accounts our fall this year is shaping up to be gorgeous...a long time coming too.
Fall Freeze Data for Cities Across New Mexico
(Probabilistic charts are available for sites with links) |
Central Valleys | 32°F Average | 32°F Earliest | 28°F Average | 28°F Earliest | Elevation |
| Albuquerque Sunport | November 4 | September 18, 1912 | November 15 | September 22, 1912 | 5310' |
| Albuquerque South Valley | October 23 | October 6, 2013 | November 1 | October 8, 1922 | 4955' |
| Albuquerque Foothills | October 26 | September 25, 2000 | November 5 | October 5, 1995 | 6270' |
| Corrales | October 12 | September 18, 2006 | October 23 | October 6, 1995 | 5026' |
| Los Lunas 3 SSW | October 16 | September 19, 2006 | October 26 | October 5, 1961 | 4840' |
| Carrizozo 1 SW | October 17 | September 18, 2006 | October 26 | October 8, 2007 | 5405' |
| Elephant Butte | November 14 | October 21, 1910 | November 27 | October 22, 1996 | 4571' |
| Socorro | October 20 | September 27, 1924 | October 30 | September 27, 1908 | 4585' |
Northwest Plateau | 32°F Average | 32°F Earliest | 28°F Average | 28°F Earliest | Elevation |
| Aztec Ruins | October 9 | September 9, 1989 | October 19 | September 13, 1977 | 5644' |
| Chaco Canyon | September 23 | August 23, 2001 | October 2 | August 24, 1968 | 6177' |
| El Morro | September 24 | September 4, 1961 | October 2 | September 4, 1961 | 7223' |
| Farmington | October 16 | September 19, 1996 | October 27 | September 29, 1999 | 5625' |
| Gallup | September 27 | September 3, 1973 | October 5 | September 9, 2001 | 6471' |
| Zuni | September 21 | August 9, 2011 | September 30 | September 11, 2010 | 6611' |
Northern Mountains | 32°F Average | 32°F Earliest | 28°F Average | 28°F Earliest | Elevation |
| Alcalde | October 3 | September 10, 1962 | October 14 | September 21, 1971 | 5680' |
| Chama | September 10 | August 1, 1949 | September 24 | August 1, 1949 | 7850' |
| Cimarron 4 SW | October 2 | September 9, 2001 | October 10 | September 18, 1971 | 6540' |
| Cuba | September 18 | August 13, 1985 | September 26 | September 8, 2001 | 6908' |
| Dulce | September 15 | August 9, 2009 | September 28 | August 25, 1962 | 6793' |
| Eagle Nest | September 7 | August 1, 1936 | September 19 | August 13, 1929 | 8260' |
| Gascon | September 23 | August 13, 1967 | October 2 | September 9, 2001 | 8250' |
| Jemez Springs | October 10 | September 19, 1996 | October 22 | September 29, 1999 | 6262' |
| Las Vegas | October 5 | September 9, 2001 | October 15 | September 18, 1971 | 6874' |
| Los Alamos | October 10 | September 18, 1971 | October 21 | September 19, 1996 | 7424' |
| Pecos | October 3 | August 26, 2017 | October 13 | August 26, 2017 | 6878' |
| Raton | October 7 | September 4, 1961 | October 17 | September 18, 1971 | 6932' |
| Red River | September 5 | August 2, 1915 | September 18 | August 19, 1938 | 8676' |
| Santa Fe Airport | October 15 | September 19, 2006 | October 25 | October 10, 2017 | 6344' |
| Taos | October 1 | September 3, 1973 | October 10 | September 9, 1941 | 6965' |
| Valmora | September 30 | September 5, 1971 | October 8 | September 10, 1962 | 6312' |
Eastern / Northeast Plains | 32°F Average | 32°F Earliest | 28°F Average | 28°F Earliest | Elevation |
| Amistad 5 SSW | October 25 | September 19, 1971 | October 15 | October 5, 1985 | 4445' |
| Clayton | October 17 | September 17, 1971 | October 27 | September 27, 1927 | 4960' |
| Clovis 13 N | October 19 | September 21, 1983 | October 28 | September 21, 1983 | 4435' |
| Conchas Dam | November 2 | October 8, 1976 | November 13 | October 13, 2001 | 4244' |
| Melrose | October 25 | September 16, 1951 | November 4 | October 8, 1992 | 4599' |
| Mosquero 1 NE | October 11 | September 18, 1971 | October 20 | September 25, 2000 | 5465' |
| Portales | October 24 | September 21, 1983 | November 2 | October 8, 1992 | 4010' |
| Ragland 3 SSW | October 21 | September 21, 1983 | November 1 | October 8, 1992 | 5060' |
| Roy | October 12 | September 4, 1961 | October 22 | September 25, 1970 | 5890' |
| San Jon | October 24 | September 20, 1942 | November 3 | October 8, 1970 | 4230' |
| Santa Rosa | October 21 | September 25, 2000 | November 1 | October 8, 1976 | 4610' |
| Tucumcari | October 24 | October 2, 2009 | November 2 | October 8, 1976 | 4065' |
Western / Southwest Mountains | 32°F Average | 32°F Earliest | 28°F Average | 28°F Earliest | Elevation |
| Cubero | October 4 | September 9, 2001 | October 14 | September 18, 2006 | 6195' |
| Grants | October 5 | September 4, 1961 | October 15 | September 18, 2006 | 6520' |
| Augustine | October 1 | September 8, 1932 | October 9 | September 11, 1986 | 7000' |
| Quemado | September 27 | August 17, 1985 | October 5 | September 4, 1961 | 6878' |
| Glenwood | October 21 | October 4, 2002 | October 31 | October 10, 1949 | 4725' |
| Hillsboro | October 24 | October 1, 1900 | November 2 | October 8, 1976 | 5267' |
Central Mountains | 32°F Average | 32°F Earliest | 28°F Average | 28°F Earliest | Elevation |
| Clines Corners | October 8 | September 18, 1971 | October 19 | September 21, 1983 | 7086' |
| Cloudcroft | September 29 | September 6, 1988 | October 11 | September 20, 2006 | 8679' |
| Estancia 4 N | September 29 | September 7, 1944 | October 7 | September 14, 1959 | 6140' |
| Gran Quivira | October 14 | September 18, 1971 | October 24 | September 25, 2000 | 6600' |
| Mountainair | October 6 | September 4, 1961 | October 14 | September 16, 1951 | 6520' |
| Ruidoso | October 6 | August 6, 1978 | October 18 | September 11, 1956 | 6930' |
Southeast | 32°F Average | 32°F Earliest | 28°F Average | 28°F Earliest | Elevation |
| Artesia 6 S | October 27 | September 28, 1968 | November 5 | October 8, 1976 | 3366' |
| Carlsbad | November 6 | September 29, 1909 | November 16 | October 23, 1996 | 3120' |
| Elk | October 8 | September 19, 2006 | October 20 | September 25, 2000 | 5934' |
| Fort Sumner | October 5 | September 21, 1983 | November 3 | October 8, 1992 | 4025' |
| Picacho | October 21 | September 29, 1999 | November 1 | October 14, 1997 | 4990' |
| Hobbs | November 8 | October 8, 1976 | November 18 | October 19, 1917 | 3660' |
| Roswell | November 3 | September 27, 1901 | November 13 | October 3, 1961 | 3649' |
| Tatum | October 24 | September 20, 1971 | November 2 | September 28, 1973 | 4012' |
Southern Deserts | 32°F Average | 32°F Earliest | 28°F Average | 28°F Earliest | Elevation |
| Alamogordo | November 7 | October 15, 1966 | November 16 | October 22, 1996 | 4350' |
| Animas 3 ESE | November 5 | October 8, 1992 | November 15 | October 8, 1992 | 4501' |
| Columbus | November 9 | October 8, 1976 | November 21 | October 26, 1956 | 4065' |
| Deming | November 1 | October 4, 1908 | November 11 | October 9, 1917 | 4300' |
| Lordsburg 4SE | October 24 | October 8, 2011 | November 1 | October 9, 1982 | 4244' |
| NMSU | November 9 | September 30, 1945 | November 21 | October 17, 1898 | 3886' |
| Orogrande | November 2 | October 8, 1976 | November 14 | October 8, 1976 | 4182' |
| Truth or Consequences | November 10 | October 8, 1976 | November 22 | October 28, 1970 | 4850' |
Tropical Storm Sally.
Sunday, Sept 13, 2020.
NHC Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Track.
Model Forecast Tracks Of Sally.
(Rainfall Forecast Updated At 1:04 PM MDT Sunday, Sept 13, 2020).
Tropical Storm Sally is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane within 24-hours as she continues moving to the west-northwest across the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico...headed for Lousiana.
Concerns are high that she may slow down in her forward movement and strengthen into a Major Hurricane before making landfall. The models are shifting her forecast track ever so slightly to the west with each new run. For now, the southern Lousiana Coastline and New Orleans are in trouble...ground zero. Current model forecasts indicate 10" to 20" of rainfall from Sally which will cause widespread significant flooding and flash flooding.
All of this may change so make sure you click on the links provided and get the very latest updated information from the National Hurricane Center and the local National Weather Service Forecast Offices.
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020
...SALLY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STARTING ON MONDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 84.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM W OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.48 INCHES.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------TROPICAL STORM SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020
1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA
FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF OCEAN SPRINGS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF OCEAN SPRINGS TO INDIAN PASS
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 84.9W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 84.9W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 84.6W
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 28.0N 86.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.5N 88.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 20SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 28.9N 89.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 29.7N 90.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 30.3N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 31.5N 90.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 33.6N 88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 34.8N 83.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 84.9W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWNThe Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
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