New Mexico Smoke -T-Storms - T.S. Sally.

6:35 PM MDT

Friday, Sept 11, 2020.

US Hwy 82 Just West Of Artesia.

Smoke From The West Coast Fires Obscuring The Sky & Sun.

Many Californians, Radical Leftist Politicians, and the Far Left Liberal Media are blaming President Trump for the disaster unfolding across the Western U.S. with the massive outbreak of forest fires. Which is absolutely absurd. Decades of failed mismanagement of the Forests by many of these Western States due to radical Environmental Policies have caused this, not President Trump.

Surface Map Analysis.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Sunday, Sept 13, 2020.

Satellite Images. 

8:41 AM MDT Sunday, Sept 13, 2020.

RAMMB/CIRA GeoColor Satellite Image.

8:41 AM MDT Sunday, Sept 13, 2020.

RAMMB/CIRA Water Vapor Satellite Image.

Valid At 9:16 AM MDT.

Sunday, Sept 13, 2020.

NWS Albuquerque/Lubbock GIF Of Smoke Via Twitter.

This Sunday morning's satellite images show that mid-level smoke from the West Coast Forest Fires continues to stream across the southern one half of New Mexico. Smoke from these fires is forecast to continue obscuring our skies today and Monday. Tropical Storm Sally is located off the southwestern coast of Florida. 

T-Storms Back In Our Local Forecast.

WRF/ARW Rainfall Forecast.

Valid Today Through 6 PM MDT Monday.

An upper-level low has formed southwest of us in northern Old Mexico. A plume of mid-level moisture is being conveyed northeastward into southern New Mexico by the southwesterly flow aloft around this low. This combined with a weak frontal passage early this morning will boost our chances for scattered thunderstorms today into Monday. The models aren't handling this feature very well either. Isolated locally heavy rainfall will be possible with a few of these storms but overall a widespread soaking rainfall event does not appear in the cards.

Long-Range Forecasts.

Our record-breaking cold snap last week was a pattern breaker for us. I'll post more on the temperature records that were shattered later when more data is available. For now, anyway, the models indicate that our endless days of 100º has ended. This isn't to say that we still can't or won't reach 100º again before our first freeze, but in the near-term, this isn't forecast. By all accounts our fall this year is shaping up to be gorgeous...a long time coming too. 

Average First Fall Freeze Dates.

 

Fall Freeze Data for Cities Across New Mexico (Probabilistic charts are available for sites with links)

 

 

Central Valleys	32°F Average	32°F Earliest	28°F Average	28°F Earliest	Elevation
Albuquerque Sunport	November 4	September 18, 1912	November 15	September 22, 1912	5310'
Albuquerque South Valley	October 23	October 6, 2013	November 1	October 8, 1922	4955'
Albuquerque Foothills	October 26	September 25, 2000	November 5	October 5, 1995	6270'
Corrales	October 12	September 18, 2006	October 23	October 6, 1995	5026'
Los Lunas 3 SSW	October 16	September 19, 2006	October 26	October 5, 1961	4840'
Carrizozo 1 SW	October 17	September 18, 2006	October 26	October 8, 2007	5405'
Elephant Butte	November 14	October 21, 1910	November 27	October 22, 1996	4571'
Socorro	October 20	September 27, 1924	October 30	September 27, 1908	4585'
Northwest Plateau	32°F Average	32°F Earliest	28°F Average	28°F Earliest	Elevation
Aztec Ruins	October 9	September 9, 1989	October 19	September 13, 1977	5644'
Chaco Canyon	September 23	August 23, 2001	October 2	August 24, 1968	6177'
El Morro	September 24	September 4, 1961	October 2	September 4, 1961	7223'
Farmington	October 16	September 19, 1996	October 27	September 29, 1999	5625'
Gallup	September 27	September 3, 1973	October 5	September 9, 2001	6471'
Zuni	September 21	August 9, 2011	September 30	September 11, 2010	6611'
Northern Mountains	32°F Average	32°F Earliest	28°F Average	28°F Earliest	Elevation
Alcalde	October 3	September 10, 1962	October 14	September 21, 1971	5680'
Chama	September 10	August 1, 1949	September 24	August 1, 1949	7850'
Cimarron 4 SW	October 2	September 9, 2001	October 10	September 18, 1971	6540'
Cuba	September 18	August 13, 1985	September 26	September 8, 2001	6908'
Dulce	September 15	August 9, 2009	September 28	August 25, 1962	6793'
Eagle Nest	September 7	August 1, 1936	September 19	August 13, 1929	8260'
Gascon	September 23	August 13, 1967	October 2	September 9, 2001	8250'
Jemez Springs	October 10	September 19, 1996	October 22	September 29, 1999	6262'
Las Vegas	October 5	September 9, 2001	October 15	September 18, 1971	6874'
Los Alamos	October 10	September 18, 1971	October 21	September 19, 1996	7424'
Pecos	October 3	August 26, 2017	October 13	August 26, 2017	6878'
Raton	October 7	September 4, 1961	October 17	September 18, 1971	6932'
Red River	September 5	August 2, 1915	September 18	August 19, 1938	8676'
Santa Fe Airport	October 15	September 19, 2006	October 25	October 10, 2017	6344'
Taos	October 1	September 3, 1973	October 10	September 9, 1941	6965'
Valmora	September 30	September 5, 1971	October 8	September 10, 1962	6312'
Eastern / Northeast Plains	32°F Average	32°F Earliest	28°F Average	28°F Earliest	Elevation
Amistad 5 SSW	October 25	September 19, 1971	October 15	October 5, 1985	4445'
Clayton	October 17	September 17, 1971	October 27	September 27, 1927	4960'
Clovis 13 N	October 19	September 21, 1983	October 28	September 21, 1983	4435'
Conchas Dam	November 2	October 8, 1976	November 13	October 13, 2001	4244'
Melrose	October 25	September 16, 1951	November 4	October 8, 1992	4599'
Mosquero 1 NE	October 11	September 18, 1971	October 20	September 25, 2000	5465'
Portales	October 24	September 21, 1983	November 2	October 8, 1992	4010'
Ragland 3 SSW	October 21	September 21, 1983	November 1	October 8, 1992	5060'
Roy	October 12	September 4, 1961	October 22	September 25, 1970	5890'
San Jon	October 24	September 20, 1942	November 3	October 8, 1970	4230'
Santa Rosa	October 21	September 25, 2000	November 1	October 8, 1976	4610'
Tucumcari	October 24	October 2, 2009	November 2	October 8, 1976	4065'
Western / Southwest Mountains	32°F Average	32°F Earliest	28°F Average	28°F Earliest	Elevation
Cubero	October 4	September 9, 2001	October 14	September 18, 2006	6195'
Grants	October 5	September 4, 1961	October 15	September 18, 2006	6520'
Augustine	October 1	September 8, 1932	October 9	September 11, 1986	7000'
Quemado	September 27	August 17, 1985	October 5	September 4, 1961	6878'
Glenwood	October 21	October 4, 2002	October 31	October 10, 1949	4725'
Hillsboro	October 24	October 1, 1900	November 2	October 8, 1976	5267'
Central Mountains	32°F Average	32°F Earliest	28°F Average	28°F Earliest	Elevation
Clines Corners	October 8	September 18, 1971	October 19	September 21, 1983	7086'
Cloudcroft	September 29	September 6, 1988	October 11	September 20, 2006	8679'
Estancia 4 N	September 29	September 7, 1944	October 7	September 14, 1959	6140'
Gran Quivira	October 14	September 18, 1971	October 24	September 25, 2000	6600'
Mountainair	October 6	September 4, 1961	October 14	September 16, 1951	6520'
Ruidoso	October 6	August 6, 1978	October 18	September 11, 1956	6930'
Southeast	32°F Average	32°F Earliest	28°F Average	28°F Earliest	Elevation
Artesia 6 S	October 27	September 28, 1968	November 5	October 8, 1976	3366'
Carlsbad	November 6	September 29, 1909	November 16	October 23, 1996	3120'
Elk	October 8	September 19, 2006	October 20	September 25, 2000	5934'
Fort Sumner	October 5	September 21, 1983	November 3	October 8, 1992	4025'
Picacho	October 21	September 29, 1999	November 1	October 14, 1997	4990'
Hobbs	November 8	October 8, 1976	November 18	October 19, 1917	3660'
Roswell	November 3	September 27, 1901	November 13	October 3, 1961	3649'
Tatum	October 24	September 20, 1971	November 2	September 28, 1973	4012'
Southern Deserts	32°F Average	32°F Earliest	28°F Average	28°F Earliest	Elevation
Alamogordo	November 7	October 15, 1966	November 16	October 22, 1996	4350'
Animas 3 ESE	November 5	October 8, 1992	November 15	October 8, 1992	4501'
Columbus	November 9	October 8, 1976	November 21	October 26, 1956	4065'
Deming	November 1	October 4, 1908	November 11	October 9, 1917	4300'
Lordsburg 4SE	October 24	October 8, 2011	November 1	October 9, 1982	4244'
NMSU	November 9	September 30, 1945	November 21	October 17, 1898	3886'
Orogrande	November 2	October 8, 1976	November 14	October 8, 1976	4182'
Truth or Consequences	November 10	October 8, 1976	November 22	October 28, 1970	4850'

Tropical Storm Sally.

Valid At 8:15 AM MDT.

Sunday, Sept 13, 2020.

NHC Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Track.

Model Forecast Tracks Of Sally.

Courtesy Of WeatherModels.com.

Courtesy of WeatherBell.

ECMWF Rainfall Forecast From Sally.

(Rainfall Forecast Updated At 1:04 PM MDT Sunday, Sept 13, 2020).

Valid Today - Through 6 AM MDT Wednesday, Sept 23, 2020.

Storm Surge Forecast.

Tropical Storm Sally is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane within 24-hours as she continues moving to the west-northwest across the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico...headed for Lousiana.

Concerns are high that she may slow down in her forward movement and strengthen into a Major Hurricane before making landfall. The models are shifting her forecast track ever so slightly to the west with each new run. For now, the southern Lousiana Coastline and New Orleans are in trouble...ground zero. Current model forecasts indicate 10" to 20" of rainfall from Sally which will cause widespread significant flooding and flash flooding.

All of this may change so make sure you click on the links provided and get the very latest updated information from the National Hurricane Center and the local National Weather Service Forecast Offices. 

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192020
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

...SALLY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STARTING ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 84.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM W OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.48 INCHES.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL STORM SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192020
1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA
FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF OCEAN SPRINGS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF OCEAN SPRINGS TO INDIAN PASS
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT 
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS 
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO 
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR 
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER 
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N  84.9W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  80SE   0SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N  84.9W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N  84.6W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 28.0N  86.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.5N  88.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  20SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 28.9N  89.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 29.7N  90.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 30.3N  90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  90SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 31.5N  90.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  60SE  20SW  20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 33.6N  88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 34.8N  83.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N  84.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!