Current Weather 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Brutal Arctic Cold Coming Next Week!

February 3, 2021.
Looking south from Carlsbad at Altocumulus Standing Lenticular Clouds.

Brutal Arctic Cold Set To Invade Next Week.



North America Temperatures.
At 7 AM MST Saturday, February 6,2021.


 Saturday Morning February 6, 2021.


A brutally cold arctic air mass has been building across most of interior Alaska and northern Canada over the past week. This morning's reported low temperatures were widespread in the -30F to -40F range, with pockets of -50F and approaching -60F. 



Wind Chill Temperatures At 2 PM MST Saturday.



Valid At 5 PM MST Monday.

How Cold Is Cold & How Soon?


Valid At 5 AM MST Saturday, February 13, 2021.

Canadian (GEM) Apparent Temperature Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Saturday, February 13, 2021.

Canadian (GEM) Temperature Anomaly Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Saturday, February 13, 2021.

  • Just how cold this impending brutal arctic air mass will end up getting in our local next of the woods next week is unknown for now. As one can guess the forecast models are all over the place with this outbreak temperature-wise and snowfall-wise. Hopefully, they start settling down and come into better agreement next week. This is a first look at the potential impacts of this arctic air mass. These forecasts will change next week. Possibly for the better or the worse. Many times when dealing with air masses this cold the computer forecast models have a bias of being too warm and too slow on the timing of the arctic frontal boundary passages.
  • I used last night's (Friday nights) run of the Canadian (GEM) forecast model above as the worst-case scenario. This potentially record-breaking brutally cold arctic air mass has the potential to be the coldest that has affected the local area since the Arctic Outbreak of January 31st - February 4th, 2011. We may or may not see temperatures this cold locally so take this with a huge grain of salt.
  • When does the arctic cold front arrive in SE NM and nearby West TX? As early as Tuesday with a reinforcing stronger shot Thursday or Friday? This is highly unknown right now (as of Saturday afternoon). The frontal boundary has the potential to wobble back and forth across the area. From east to west and north to south.
  • During my lifetime growing up in Eddy County, New Mexico I've watched these arctic fronts oscillate back and forth at many times. I've seen temperatures on the west and south side of these fronts climb up in the 70's and 80's in the warm downsloping southwesterly and westerly winds. While immediately to the north and east of these fronts the temperatures were in the single digits and teens. We've been in the single digits in Artesia while Cloudcroft 90 miles to the west, at an elevation of 8,750' in the southern Sacramento Mountains was in the 50's. Roswell, Artesia, and Carlsbad in the 70's with Tatum and Hobbs in the single digits and teens.
  • Will it get down to 0F or colder here in Southeastern New Mexico and parts of West Texas? Yes, that is very possible. It's also possible we could see wind chill values in the -10F to -20F range late next week into the weekend. But it's also possible that we may not get that cold. 
  • What I do know is that our "warm winter trend" of late is coming to a dramatic end next week. We potentially could see below-normal temperatures for up to a week. Some of us may also drop below freezing and stay there for multiple days in a row. 
  • I'll keep everyone up to date as new info becomes available. This is one of those local weather events that has the potential to be historic with widespread record-setting cold temperatures. Should the models be right and we do get down into the single digits or colder (below zero) then we would see significant impacts upon our local Oil Field and Agriculture Industries. 
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Comments

Dangerous Sunspot AR3112

Dangerous Sunspot AR3112
WHEN WILL THE NEXT CME ARRIVE? A magnetic filament in the sun's southrn hemisphere erupted on Oct. 4th, hurling part of itself into space. The emerging CME will pass mostly to the south of our planet, but a fraction could graze Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 8th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for minor geomagnetic storms and auroras on that date.

NWS Forecast High Temps Today

NWS Forecast Low Temps Tonight

NWS Storm Total Precipitation Forecast

NWS Total Snowfall Forecast

Average Daily High/Low Temperatures

Average Daily High/Low Temperatures

NWS Midland Twitter

NWS Albuquerque Twitter

NWS El Paso Twitter

NWS Watch/Warning/Hazards Map

NWS Watch/Warning/Hazards Map
Click On The Map To Go To The Live Link.

SPC Current Watches In Effect

SPC Mesoscale Discussions

SPC Day -1 Severe Weather Outlook

Regional Radar

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic

NWS Midland Web Page

NWS Midland Web Page
Click On The Map To Open It Up

NWS Midland Radar

NWS Midland Regional Forecast

NWS Midland Regional Forecast

NWS Midland Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Web Page

NWS Albuquerque Web Page
Click On The Map To Open It Up

Cannon AFB Radar

NWS Albuquerque Radar

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecasts.

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS El Paso Web Page

NWS El Paso Web Page
Click On The Map To Open It Up

NWS El Paso Radar

Holloman AFB Radar

NWS El Paso Regional Forecasts.

NWS Lubbock Web Page

NWS Lubbock Web Page
Click On The Map To Open It Up

NWS Lubbock Radar

Lubbock Regional Forecast

NWS Lubbock Regional Forecast

NWS Lubbock Regional Forecast
Average First Freeze

10-6-2022: NINO RODRIGUEZ & KERRY CASSIDY: A CONVERSATION

10-4-2022: Meri Interviews Juan O. Savin With Intel On President Trump, Russia, And The Elections

10-4-2022: JUAN O'SAVIN W/ MAJOR INTEL ON UPCOMING WARGAMING OF MID-TERMS W/ DAVID NINO RODRIGUEZ

10-4-2022: Derek Johnson & Michael Jaco SHOCKING News

10-3-2022: Tucker Carlson: Biden is responsible for this destruction in Europe