Current Weather 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Arctic Cold Front Knocking On Our Backdoor - Major Winter Storm Late This Weekend.


Valid At 2 AM MST Wednesday Morning.


Valid At 5 AM MST Thursday Morning.


Valid At 11 PM MST Tuesday Night.

GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast.
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Valid At 11 AM MST Saturday.

Valid At 11 AM MST Sunday.

Valid At 5 AM MST Monday.

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Valid At 11 AM MST Saturday.

Valid At 11 AM MST Sunday.

Valid At 11 AM MST Sunday.


Valid At 11 AM MST Monday.

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Valid Today Through 5 PM MST Tuesday.

Brutally Cold Arctic Air Knocking On Our Backdoor - Major Winter Storm Late This Weekend.

Early this morning the arctic cold front was across northeastern New Mexico southeastward to the Hobbs area then southeastward to the Del Rio, Texas area. It will move little today then begin sloshing westward tonight.

The computer forecast models continue their headache of flip-flopping on the arctic air mass and the snowfall. Again the models are notorious for this type of behavior, especially with such a large and cold air mass.

Once the arctic air moves westward into the rest of Southeastern New Mexico I suspect it will be here to stay until at least the first of next week. The question on how far it backs into the local area tonight remains. By late in the weekend it should back west of El Paso.

There remains the possibility that the arctic frontal boundary may slosh back and forth across the Southeastern Plains of New Mexico and parts of West Texas today through Friday. So we could see some wild swings in temperatures if this happens. 70's on the west side of the front with the 20's to 40's on the east side of the frontal boundary.

Areas of freezing fog and freezing drizzle have broken out over parts of West Texas and far Southeastern New Mexico overnight. Those locals that remain east of the arctic cold frontal boundary today will likely stay in the soup. With a repeat of this tonight...moving further westward. Freezing fog advisories are in effect for parts of the local area this morning from Lea County eastward into West Texas.

Three different mid-upper level storms are forecast to dig southward into the region today through Tuesday. With the strongest storm developing to our southwest late this weekend into early next week. 

A major winter storm appears to be shaping up for the area from Sunday into Tuesday. Heavy snows, blowing snow, drifting snow, dangerously low temperatures, and wind chills all will pose significant hazards across the area from Friday through Tuesday. The heavy snows are currently forecast to arrive in the Sunday through Tuesday time frame. It's possible that blizzard conditions could develop over parts of the areas late this weekend into early next week.

Wind chill values this weekend into early next week will crater down into the 0ºF to -30ºF range. High temperatures Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and maybe Tuesday may not get out of the single digits and teens for many areas.

Low temperatures Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday will fall into the single digits and colder. Some models forecast lows Sunday and Monday mornings down in the 0ºF to -12ºF range. This all depends on what happens to the winter storm approaching from the southwest late this weekend into early next week. If we get a lot of snow on the ground and skies clear early then the bottom falls out of our thermometers with the potential for lows of -10ºF to -20ºF or colder.

Significant impacts upon the area's Oil and Gas Industry are possible with the record cold, dangerous wind chills, snow, and freezing precipitation. Livestock and other animals should be protected if possible. Stock up on extra feed and water if possible.

I am concerned about our temperatures. If they get as cold as some as the models suggest then widespread freezing of piping in homes and business will be possible. This will be the coldest air mass to affect the areas since February 2011. Many record low daily high temperatures may be broken as well as overnight low temperatures.

Thanks for visiting my web page and I'll keep everyone updated as the situation develops.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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Dangerous Sunspot AR3112

Dangerous Sunspot AR3112
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