Current Weather 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Winter Storm This Weekend & Brutally Cold!


Valid Monday Morning.

GFS Forecast Apparent Temperature.

Valid At 11 AM MST Monday Morning.

GFS Temperature Anomaly Forecast.

Valid At 11 AM MST Monday Morning.


Valid At 5 PM MST Wednesday. Morning.

Winter Storm This Weekend.

Once again the computer forecast models have gone off the rail with their forecasts (in my opinion). They are all over the place with the placement, timing, and strength concerning the three different mid-upper level storms forecast to impact the area today into early next week. Again this is to be expected (somewhat) since they are struggling with just how cold this air mass is. Its origins are Polar and unusually cold for our area.

The arctic frontal boundary should remain fairly stationary today...draped across parts of Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas. However, it could also wobble or slosh back and forth to the east and west across parts of Southeastern New Mexico today. If it does then our temperatures will swing like the front with afternoon highs on the west side of the frontal boundary in the 50's & 60's. Those areas that remain entrenched in the arctic air today will remain in the 20's and 30's (especially across West Texas to our east and northeast).

When the models settling down (hopefully they will soon) I will have a better idea of the storm track and its effects late this weekend. As well as the temperature forecasts.Patchy areas of freezing fog and freezing drizzle are impacting the local area this morning. We will see a repeat tonight into Friday morning as well.

As the first disturbance swings across the area Friday and Friday night we will light snow break out. At this time significant amounts are not anticipated. The more important impacts will come Sunday into the Tuesday time frame when heavy snow, blowing snow, drifting snow, and dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are forecast areawide. 

Low temperatures locally Sunday into Monday still look to drop down into the single digits for much of the local area. Monday appears to be the coldest (maybe Tuesday also) with lows ranging from 0ºF to -15ºF. Wind chill values Monday morning are forecast to drop down into the -15ºF to -25ºF range. Our temperatures Sunday into Tuesday will be some 40º to 60º below normal.

Snowfall totals still look like they will be in the 3" to 6" range across the lowlands and the 8" to 12" range in the mountains. 

Significant travel problems are possible and expected across the area especially this weekend into the first of next week. Actions should be taken to protect livestock and other animals now. Now is the time to protect your home's piping and plumbing. 

Again this air mass will be the coldest that we have experienced in the local area since February 2011. Record low temperatures and record low daily high temperatures will be set this weekend into the first of next week. This event could be one for the record books and may be historic for the local area.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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Dangerous Sunspot AR3112

Dangerous Sunspot AR3112
WHEN WILL THE NEXT CME ARRIVE? A magnetic filament in the sun's southrn hemisphere erupted on Oct. 4th, hurling part of itself into space. The emerging CME will pass mostly to the south of our planet, but a fraction could graze Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 8th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for minor geomagnetic storms and auroras on that date.

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