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Warmer But Windy Today - Back To The Deep Freeze Tonight Into Friday Morning.


First Snowfall Of February 2014.

My Snowfall At My Home In Carlsbad Sunday Morning Was 0.6".

Snowfall Was A Little Heavier In The Loving Area.
I Shot This 3 Miles Southeast Of Loving On St. Hwy 31. 1" On The Ground.

Fog & Low Clouds To Burn Off Soon - Windy Today.





Low clouds, areas of fog, freezing fog, and light drizzle kept southeastern New Mexico in the soup yesterday. It was warmer in Clovis, and across the Sacramento Mountains that it was in southeastern New Mexico yesterday. 

Early this morning most of southeastern New Mexico and parts of west Texas were still socked in with low clouds and areas of fog. This will quickly burn off soon as our surface winds turn to the southwest and begin to crank up. Southwesterly to westerly winds are forecast to increase to sustained speeds of  25 - 40 mph with gusts around 50 mph in Eddy County today. These winds are not forecast to be as strong across Lea and Chaves Counties. 

Westerly winds are forecast to gust up to around 65 mph in Guadalupe Pass and nearby areas.

Next Arctic Cold Front Arrives Tonight.



We will see a quick warm-up today but it won't last long. Most of southeastern New Mexico will see highs this afternoon in the 50's, a few spots may get close to 60. 

Valid @ 5 PM MST Wednesday.

Last Night's 00Z/5 PM MST Canadian (GEM) Temp Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Wednesday.

Our next surge of arctic air will arrive later tonight into early Wednesday morning. Again I tend to agree with the Canadian models temperature forecasts for Wednesday and Thursday...like with the last three intrusions of arctic air this model has been a little colder than the others, and closer to reality in my opinion.

Anyway most of the local area I think will only see highs in the 20's tomorrow and Thursday. A few of us may get up into the 30's. I suspect that once we clear late Thursday night into Friday morning our low temperatures will once again drop down into the single digits and teens.

Light Snowfall Possible Once Again.

Valid @ 5 PM MST Wednesday.

 06Z/11 PM MST GFS Precipitation Type Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Thursday.

Valid @ 5 PM MST Thursday.

Last Night's 06Z/11 PM MST GFS Accumulated Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Friday.

 Last Night's 06Z/11 PM MST ECMWF Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Friday.

Last Night's 06Z/11 PM MST Canadian Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Friday.

Forecasting snowfall for the southeastern New Mexico plains is always a tough call. For now the models pretty much agree that we could see anywhere from a light dusting to an inch or so by Friday. As is usually the case most of the time the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains may end up with more...perhaps up to 4" or 5" in the higher elevations. This may be subject to change depending upon the track of the next inbound upper-level disturbance to affect the area Wednesday and Thursday.

At this time it appears that the heaviest snowfall will occur over the northern sections of New Mexico. Please visit the Albuquerque National Weather Service Office Web Page for additional information on this. This Winter Storm is forecast to affect a large area from New Mexico northeast to New England. Please visit this cool map courtesy of the National Weather Service for all of the latest on this storm.

Don't worry our next bout of cold weather will not last long. Our highs this weekend should be at least in the 50's with the 60's return by next Monday if not sooner.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction! 

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