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Increasing Rain Shower Activity Today Across SE NM & W TX.

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Valid @ 7:49 AM MDT This Morning.


Latest Infrared (IR) Satellite Image.
Valid @ 6:15 AM MDT This Morning.


Radar is coming alive across Far West Texas and the Big Bend Country this morning. The upper level low I've been talking about was located just east of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula along the Mexican Coast at midnight last night. As the day progresses it will continue lifting northeastward.
As it does the counter clock-wise flow around it at the mid levels of the atmosphere will continue to pump abundant moisture into southern New Mexico and West Texas through tomorrow. This process is already underway as seen on the IR Satellite image above.


Valid @ Noon MDT Today.

Valid @ 3 PM MDT Today.

Valid @ 6 PM MDT Today.

Valid @ 9 PM MDT Tonight.

12Z HRRR Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid @ 9 PM MDT Tonight.

Looking at the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) forecast model outputs above it appears that we should see some rain showers breaking out over southeastern New Mexico by around noontime today, and increase in intensity and coverage through the afternoon into this evening. There may be a few embedded thunderstorms with this activity, especially as the cold front continues working its way southward. If this model is right then rainfall totals across parts of Eddy and Lea Counties by 9 PM this evening will be in the .25" to 1.00" range. Rain is forecast to continue across the area into Wednesday afternoon. 

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