Welcome To Southeast New Mexico Weather.: A Wet Week Ahead?

Sunday, March 15, 2015

A Wet Week Ahead?

GFS 500 MB Forecasts.

Valid @ 6 AM MDT This Morning.

Valid @ 6 PM MDT Wednesday.

Valid @ 6 PM MDT Friday.

Next week looks interesting weather-wise for the area. A closed 500 millibar low located near the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula this morning is forecast to meander around that general area over the next couple of days. It will retrograde a bit west first before it gets kicked eastward by a trough of low pressure digging into the Pacific Northwest late next week.

Southerly low and mid level flow ahead of this system will increase the low and mid level moisture content across the area next week. An approaching cold front by Tuesday will add to the mix and provide additional lift. The net result will be an increase in our chances of seeing measurable rainfall.

Scattered thunderstorms appear to be a possibility Tuesday and Wednesday also. Perhaps a few of these could become strong enough to produce hail...some of which could be at severe levels (1" in diameter or the size of quarters or larger). Its not totally unheard of to have a few severe thunderstorms in eastern, southeastern New Mexico, and West Texas in March.

A few spots may end up with rainfall totals of around .50" to 1.00". Round two comes at the end of next week as the upper level low to our southwest opens up and begins moving eastward south of us across northern Mexico.

Some of the higher northern mountains of New Mexico and southern Colorado could end up with close to a foot of snow by the end of next week. Ski Apache may also see accumulating snows.

After seeing our afternoon temperatures today in the mid-upper 60's Monday will be a little warmer with highs ranging from near 70 to the mid 70's. Tuesday and Wednesday will be cooler with the increase in cloud cover and precipitation with highs in the mid 60's to near 70.

GFS Surface Forecasts.