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Severe T-Storms Today - Flash Flood Watch Tonight Into Thursday.

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NWS SPC Severe Weather Outlook Today.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across southeastern Arizona, and the southern one third of New Mexico including potions of the eastern plains and the southeastern plains. Large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will be the primary threats. Although an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.



Click On This Link For The Latest Updates.
Flash Flood Watches In Effect Tonight Into Thursday.


24-Hour Radar Estimated Rainfall Totals.
As Of 5:30 AM MDT This Morning.

24-Hour Radar Estimated Rainfall Totals.
As Of 5:30 AM MDT This Morning.

GFS 500 MB Analysis @ Midnight MDT Last Night.

GFS 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Thursday Morning.

Last Nights 6 PM MDT NAM/WRF Rainfall Forecast.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Thursday.

Flash Flood Watches In Effect Tonight Into Thursday.

Our first round of thunderstorms broke out over parts of the local area yesterday afternoon and evening. Today will see a marked increase in this activity. A few scattered severe thunderstorms will also be possible. See the details above.

Our storm to the west continues to approach the area slowly. Get ready for some heavy rains and flash flooding. My thinking still remains the same concerning our storm potential rainfall amounts by Thursday.

Last nights (above) 6 PM MDT run of the medium range forecast model "the NAM/WRF." Lord have mercy it now is getting a little wacko with its rainfall totals forecast by sunrise Thursday morning. Generally across eastern & southeastern New Mexico its forecasting a wide swath of 2"-4" totals (which is believable) with pockets of 5"-10" totals.
Although its looking more and more likely that heavy rains will fall over the local area tomorrow into Thursday along with flash flooding, I'm still not sure that our storm totals will be in the 5"-10" range. Again I don't think can be totally discounted either.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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My Precipitation Totals - 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad

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My Snowfall Totals - 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

My Snowfall Totals - 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

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This blog and its contents are for informational purposes only! Always have multiple sources of information available to rely upon during severe weather. Do not rely solely on the Internet. Be weather-aware, plan ahead, have a backup plan, and be ready to act before severe weather strikes your location.