Valid @ 5:45 AM MDT Friday, October 23,2015.
Blog Updated @ 2:43 PM MDT.
Hurricane Patricia has sustained winds of 175 knots with gusts to 215 knots or 200 mph with gusts to 247 mph! Her central pressure has bombed out at an almost unbelievable 880 millibars or 25.99 inches of mercury! This makes Catagory 5 Hurricane the strongest Hurricane ever measured by the
National Hurricane Center.
When NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite passed over Patricia on October 23 at 5:20 a.m. EDT the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite or VIIRS instrument that flies aboard Suomi NPP looked at the storm in infrared light. "Cloud top temperatures of thunderstorms around the eyewall were between 180K (-135.7F/ -93.1C) and 190 Kelvin (-117.7F/ -83.1C)," said William Straka III of the University of Wisconsin, Madison. "Then, as you go into the eye itself, it gets warmer."
The higher the cloud tops, the colder they are as temperatures get colder with altitude in the troposphere. Storms with cloud top temperatures that cold have the capability of generating heavy rainfall.
Patrica @ 3:20 AM MDT This Morning.
Visible Image Of Patrica @ 8:15 AM MDT.
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 231449
TCDEP5
HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
There has been little change in the satellite appearance of Patricia
since the earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft left the hurricane.
Based on this, the initial intensity remains 175 kt. Some
fluctuations in strength are possible before landfall, but it is
expected that Patricia will make landfall as a Category 5 hurricane
in southwestern Mexico in less than 12 hours. After landfall, a
combination of the mountainous terrain of Mexico and increasing
shear should cause the cyclone to rapidly weaken, with the system
likely to dissipate completely after 36 hours.
The hurricane has turned northward since the previous advisory
and the initial motion is now 005/9. Patricia is about to
recurve into the westerlies between a mid-level anticyclone to its
east and a deep-layer trough over northwestern Mexico and the
southwestern U. S. These features should steer the cyclone
generally north-northeastward across western and northern Mexico
until dissipation occurs. The new forecast track is an update of
the previous track.
The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend. This system should be
non-tropical in nature. However, this cyclone is expected to draw
significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could
result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days. Refer to
statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for
details.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening.
Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning
area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are spreading across the area. Residents
in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning area
should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be
catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes
landfall.
2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.
3. At this time, the Category 5 winds are occurring over a very
small area near the center - about 15 miles across. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Patricia
before landfall to see what changes in intensity and structure have
occurred.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 17.6N 105.5W 175 KT 200 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 19.8N 105.1W 130 KT 150 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/1200Z 22.9N 103.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 25/0000Z 25.7N 101.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 230834
TCDEP5
HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
Data from three center fixes by the Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the intensity, based on a blend of 700 mb-flight level and
SFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt. This makes Patricia
the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's
area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the
eastern North Pacific basins. The minimum central pressure
estimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for
our AOR. It seems incredible that even more strengthening could
occur before landfall later today, but recent microwave imagery
shows hints of a concentric eyewall developing. If the trend
toward an eyewall replacement continues, it would cause the
intensity to at least level off later today. The official forecast
shows only a little more strengthening before landfall. Given the
very mountainous terrain that Patricia should encounter after
landfall, the cyclone should weaken even faster over land than
predicted by the normal inland decay rate.
Recent center fixes show that the hurricane is gradually turning
toward the right, and the initial motion estimate is 340/10 kt. The
track forecast scenario remains about the same. Patricia should
continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level
anticyclone today and turn north-northeastward ahead of a trough to
the northwest tonight and Saturday. The official track forecast is
somewhat slower than the latest model consensus and lies between
the GFS and ECMWF solutions.
The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend. Based on the predicted
upper-level winds, this system should be non-tropical in nature.
However this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of
moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally
heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
coastal area within the next few days. Refer to statements from
local National Weather Service forecast offices for details.
We would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
for their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking
hurricane. Clearly, without their data, we would never have known
just how strong a tropical cyclone it was.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening.
Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning
area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect the area.
Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning
area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be
catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes
landfall.
2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 17.0N 105.5W 175 KT 200 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 18.8N 105.4W 180 KT 205 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 21.7N 104.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 24.5N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
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