Tornado Risk Today.
Severe T-Storm Wind Gust Risk Today.
(50 Knots Or 58 MPH And Higher).
Risk For Severe Hail Today.
(1" In Diameter Or Larger).
(Issued At 6:54 AM MDT Friday, April 20th, 2018).
Valid At PM MDT This Afternoon.
NAM-WRF Rainfall Forecast.
Valid At 7 AM MDT Saturday Morning.
NAM-WRF Surface Based Cape.
Valid At 5 PM MDT Today.
Will SE New Mexico Get Wet?
Maybe some of you will but most of us won't is the best answer I can give you this morning. According to the latest model runs the best chances for wetting rains this afternoon and evening will generally occur roughly from about the Hobbs area northward to Clayton along and near the NM/TX state line.
Severe thunderstorms are forecast to break out this afternoon and evening generally along and north of a Hobbs to Clovis line also. The primary threats at this time appear to be large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 58 mph. Locally heavy rains could also fall and any thunderstorm that forms will be accompanied by deadly cloud to ground lightning. The tornado threat appears to be small but that can never be completely ruled out. A few supercell thunderstorms are forecast to break out and these will need to be watched closely for this potential...especially one or two of the stronger cells become rooted closer to the surface.
Should the dryline hold back further to the west than currently is forecast then there would be a better chance for thunderstorms across Southeastern New Mexico. Any way it goes it will be a close call as to whether or not we get wet. At any rate it would be a good idea to keep abreast of our local weather this afternoon and evening in the event that conditions change and we end up facing the potential for more of a severe weather threat locally.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!