My Current Weather

Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Heavy Snow Falling In The Sac's Today - Major Winter Storm Friday Into The Weekend.

Blog Updated At 2:00 PM MST.

A Beautiful Christmas Sunset From Artesia, New Mexico.

First Winter Storm Impacting Southern New Mexico.

Valid At 2 AM MST Wednesday, December 26, 2018.

Surface Weather Map Foreecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Wednesday, December 26, 2018.

Severe thunderstorms are forecast to break out along and ahead of the dryline and later along and ahead of the Pacific cold front as the lift eastward this morning into this evening across West and Central Texas. Large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, and isolated tornadoes are all possible.

Click on the link above to open up this map for all of the latest National Weather Service Watches, Warnings, Forecasts, and much more. After you open up the link then click anywhere on the map where you are interested in and you will then be re-directed to the NWS Forecast Office that covers that location...which will have the very latest updated weather information for that location.

Valid At 6:20 AM MST Wednesday, December 26, 2018.

Valid At 6:45 AM MST Wednesday, December 26, 2018.

Valid At 12:45 PM MST Wednesday, December 26, 2018.

Valid At 12:12 PM MST Wednesday, December 26, 2018.

Valid At 12:12 PM MST Wednesday, December 26, 2018.

As of Noon MST this Wednesday a broken line of thunderstorms (squall line) can be seen in the satellite images above and on regional and local radars. This line of thunderstorms stretches from north to south from the Texas Panhandle south to the Big Bend area. This line of strong thunderstorms has been moving to the east at around 50 mph at times this morning. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch and Tornado Watch are now in effect for parts of West Texas, and Central Texas.

NWS Midland Hazardous Weather Map.

Valid At 1:30 PM MST Wednesday, December 26, 2018.

Update As of 1:30 PM MST-

The following Watches are in effect in the and near the Midland NWS County Warning Area of SE NM & W TX: A Tornado Watch (Yellow Shades), a Severe Thunderstorm Watch (Pink Shades), Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Orange Shades), High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories (Brown Shades), and a Winter Weather Advisory for the southern Sacramento Mountains.

A High Wind Warning is in effect for Eddy County (including the Artesia and Carlsbad areas) from 9 AM MST this morning through 5 AM MST Thursday morning. Across the lower elevations of Eddy County southwesterly winds will rapidly increase with the Pacific frontal passage shorty and become sustained at 30-40 mph with gusts near 60 mph. In the Guadalupe Mountains these winds will become sustained at 30 to 50 mph with gusts near 70 mph. Localized areas of blowing dust may cause travel problems on some of our local roads and highways. Watch for those sudden drops in the visibility down to near zero with little to no advanced warning due to blowing dust.

I took this photo Christmas afternoon on our way back to Carlsbad from Las Cruces where we spent Christmas Eve and Christmas with our youngest daughter and her family. November was colder and wetter than normal across the local area and looked promising as far as us having a cold and snowy winter. Then came December and it has been warmer than normal with a snow drought ongoing across New Mexico...especially in some of our mountain communities. That changes with today's winter storm. A second stronger and colder storm will impact the state Friday into Sunday with a third storm possibly the first to middle of next week. Overall the trend is for much colder weather to settle in with lots of snow over the next couple of weeks. Winter has arrived...just not this Christmas.

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Southern Sacramento Mountains until 7 PM MST this evening. New snowfall totals are forecast to be around 3" to 6".

(October 1st - December 25, 2018).

Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS 0.4 ESE 7.0"
Sunspot CoCoRaHS 0.2 Miles SSW 6.7"
Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS 4.0 Miles E 6.5"
Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS 2.3 Miles S 5.7"
Cloudcroft Climate 4.9"
Mayhill CoCoRaHS 2.8 Miles WNW 0.7"

(October 1st - December 25, 2018).

Nogal CoCoRaHS 4.6 Miles SSE 11.0"
Capitan CoCoRaHS 7.9 Miles WNW 1.8"
Lincoln CoCoRaHS 1.4 Miles ESE 1.7"
Ruidoso CoCoRaHS 2.9 SW 1.6"
Alto CoCoRaHS 1.6 Miles NNE 1.5"
Arabela CoCoRaHS 2.5 Miles SSW 1.5"

Seasonal Snowfall In The Roswell-Artesia-Carlsbad-Queen Area.
(October 1st - December 25, 2018).

Roswell CoCoRaHS 4.1 Miles NNE 2.3"
Roswell CoCoRaHS 1.7 Miles NW 2.0"
Artesia CoCoRaHS 3.5 Miles NNE 1.5"
Roswell CoCoRaHS 0.3 Miles SSW 1.3"
Queen CoCoRaHS 33.3 WSW Carlsbad 1.0"

Valid At 6:57 AM MST Wednesday, December 26, 2018.

Valid At 7:55 AM MST Wednesday, December 26, 2018.

Valid At 7:53 AM MST Wednesday, December 26, 2018.

Valid At 8:17 AM MST Wednesday, December 26, 2018.

A Pacific cold front was moving into the Las Cruces and El Paso areas as of 6:30 AM MST this Wednesday morning. Meanwhile a closed upper level low at about 18,000' was located just south-southeast of Tuscon, Arizona near the Arizona/Mexico border and continues moving eastward. 

Moderate to occasional pockets of heavy rain were moving into southern New Mexico.Meanwhile rain was in the process of mixing with and changing over to snow across the Sacramento Mountains at 6 AM. Web cams in Timberon, Cloudcroft, Ruidoso, and Ski Apache show snow falling at 7 AM. At 7:55 AM MST heavy snow was coming down in Cloudcroft

A few cloud to ground lightning strikes (thundersnow) were noted northwest of Alto at 6 AM. Hobbs reported a thunderstorm and fog at 4:35 AM. 

Low clouds and areas of dense fog blanketed the Eastern and Southeastern Plains of New Mexico as well as parts of West Texas. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for all of Eastern New Mexico as well as Chaves County through later this morning.

Update 1:30 PM MST-

As of 8 AM MST the Sunspot CoCoRaHS reported 6.8" of new snowfall. 4.0 miles east of Cloudcroft 3.5" was noted as of 8 AM. The Sierra Blanca Snotel was reporting 4" of new snow near Ski Apache as of 11 AM MST. 

Valid At 6:17 AM MST Wednesday, December 26, 2018.

Valid At 6 AM MST Wednesday, December 26, 2018.

Forecast For Today.

Valid At 11 AM MST This Wednesday Morning.

Valid At 2 PM MST This Wednesday Afternoon.

Valid At 5 AM MST Thursday, December 27, 2018.

Valid Today Through 5 PM MST Friday.

Update At 1:30 PM MST-

Valid 2 PM MST Wednesday Afternoon Through 5 PM MST Friday Afternoon.

Scattered rain showers are forecast to develop across parts of Southeastern New Mexico around later this morning continuing this afternoon as the Pacific cold front to our west moves into the Pecos Valley and then eastward into West Texas late this afternoon. 

Scattered thunderstorms some of which will be severe will likely break out this afternoon just east of the New Mexico/Texas state line and then race off to the east and northeast into Central and Northern Texas tonight. 

Heavy snow now falling in the Sacramento Mountains will come to an end tonight. The official forecast calls for up to 6" across the higher peaks. Take a look at the NAM-WRF model storm total forecast graphic above. 

No doubt that this model forecast appears to be way overdone with its snowfall forecasts. I seriously doubt that 2 feet of snow will fall in the Cloudcroft area by tonight. However...I hate saying that because mother nature loves to sucker punch us sometimes. Especially with these cold moist negatively tilted upper level troughs of low pressure currently southeast of Tuscon and headed our way. In fact the models think that this storm will deepen as it approaches SE NM by tonight. Cloudcroft's web cams are showing that snow continues to come down hard as of 8 AM this morning.

Having said that I don't believe the snowfall forecast totals on the graphic above but I also think that its entirely possible that the higher peaks of the Sacramento Mountains (roughly above 7,000') may get more than 6" of fresh snow out of this storm. A foot of snow does not seem out of the question. Time will tell.

Next Winter Storm Colder & Stronger Friday - Sunday.

Valid At 5 PM MST Saturday, December 29, 2018.

Last nights computer runs of the Canadian and European forecast models are indicating that our next winter storm to affect the state and local area Friday into Sunday at least will be colder, stronger, and wetter than today's storm. Both models get a little crazy with widespread heavy snowfall forecasts of a foot or more over the states mountains and over Central, Eastern, and parts of the Southeastern Plains by Saturday night at sunset. 

Valid At 5 PM MST Saturday, December 29, 2018.

Major Winter Storm Shaping Up For The Weekend!

This mornings run of the NAM model adds support to the European and Canadian models forecasts as it too indicates that widespread heavy snow is on the way Friday into Saturday night. Some of the forecast models are hinting that locally we may drop below freezing on Friday and may not rise above freezing until the middle of next week.

So now is the time to get ready for a Significant/Major Winter Storm that will impact much of New Mexico and nearby areas Friday into the weekend and possibly longer! It appears that widespread travel problems may become a likely-hood over parts of the state today with the current storm. And especially with our next winter storm arriving Friday and continuing into the weekend!

Those of you who have livestock need to prepare now for the possibility of heavy snowfall and an extended period of very cold temperatures (this weekend into the middle of next week possibly). 

Please visit my Winter Weather Page for local road conditions are snowfall forecasts and more. Current weather can be found on the Current Weather Page. Local forecasts are available on the Regional Forecast Page. Local radar and watches and warnings and more can be found on my Home Page.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!

No comments:

Post a Comment

Your comments, questions, and feedback on this post/web page are welcome.

NWS Albuquerque Burn Scar Matrix Forecast

Current NWS Watches/Warnings In Effect

New Mexico

Eddy County

Chaves County Plains & Mtn's

Culberson County

Lea County

Lincoln County

Otero County

Current US Temps

Current US Wind Chill/Heat Index Temperatures

GOES-East - Sector view: Southern Rockies - GEOColor

GOES-East - Sector view: Southern Plains - GeoColor

NWS Midland Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Forecast

NWS Albuquerque High Temp & Probability Of Precp Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Min Temp & Difference From Normal Forecast

NWS El Paso Forecast

NWS Lubbock Forecast

NWS Lubbock Forecast

NWS Midland Storm Total Rainfall Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Storm Total Rainfall Forecast

NWS El Paso Storm Total Rainfall Forecast

Average Daily High/Low Temperatures & Rainfall

Average Daily High/Low Temperatures & Rainfall

Subscribe To My Substack Posts