Current Weather 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Fast Moving Storm Will Produce High Winds & Light Snow Wednesday Night Into Thursday.


12-09-2018.

Windy Turning Colder With Some Snow.


Valid At 5 AM MST Wednesday.

Valid At 11 PM MST Wednesday Night.

Two upper level storms will merge over the state on Wednesday which will produce our next round of wintry weather. The first storm is a weak closed upper level low located near San Diego this morning. It will move southeast across northern Mexico today into Wednesday and open up before becoming absorbed by the second stronger upper level short wave on Wednesday.

This second storm is currently located over the Gulf of Alaska and it is forecast to rapidly dive southeastward reaching the Four Corners around sunset Wednesday. It will then continue diving southeastward and should be located over or near the New Mexico/Texas state line near the Clovis area by sunrise Thursday morning according to this mornings GFS model forecasts.


Valid At 5 AM MST Thursday.

Once again the NAM model wants to hold this small closed upper level low back further to the south and west...placing it near the Eunice area by sunrise Thursday morning. Once again the exact timing and location of this next inbound winter storm will determine who gets snow and how much. Should the NAM and GFS forecasts pan out then once again Eddy County won't get much snow with the center of the upper level storm east or northeast of us come Thursday morning. If on the other hand it tracks further to the west and south then our chances for seeing the white stuff would go up.

Precipitation Type Forecasts.


Valid At 5 AM MST Thursday.

This mornings run of the GFS model has snow moving into Southeastern New Mexico by around sunrise Thursday morning and ending during the afternoon.

NAM Precipitation Type Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Thursday.

This mornings run of the NAM model has a similar forecast for the start and ending times of the snow over the local area.

Storm Total Snowfall Forecasts.


Valid At 5 PM MST Thursday.

NAM Storm Totals Snowfall Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Friday.

NAM-WRF Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Thursday.

WPC Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Friday.


Valid At 5 PM MST Wednesday.

A cold front is forecast to rapidly move southward through New Mexico Wednesday evening. A strong surface pressure gradient combined with strong winds aloft will combine to produce a very windy and possibly dusty evening over the local area late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. 


Valid Thursday.

This fast moving incoming storm will not be all that cold so any snow that does manage to fall won't be around long with highs forecast on Thursday to be in the 40's to near 50.



A High Wind Watch has been issued for Eddy and Culberson Counties for Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. West to northwest winds are forecast to increase to sustained speeds of 30-40 mph with gusts near 60 mph across the plains as the upper level storm and cold front approach the area. West winds in the Guadalupe's are forecast to increase to 35-45 mph with gusts near 65 mph.




The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!

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