Wintry Mix Possible Tonight Into New Years Eve Morning.



First Winter Storm Arrives Tonight.



Messy weather for New Mexico today into tomorrow. A trough of low pressure (see the NAM 500 MB map above) was located over the Great Basin at sunrise this morning. A closed mid-level low was trying to form over northwestern Arizona, southwestern California, and southern Nevada. 

Meanwhile a deep plume of mid and high level tropical moisture can be seen streaming northeastward into the local area from well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja Region. Hence the overcast skies this morning.

Valid At 12Z/5 AM MST New Years Eve Morning.

This closed mid-level low is forecast by this mornings NAM model to move slowly eastward towards the Four-Corners Region by sunrise tomorrow morning.

Wintry Mix Possible Tonight Across E & SE NM.

Valid At 10 PM MST Tonight. 

Valid At 10 PM MST Tonight.

Valid At 3 AM MST New Years Eve Morning.

Valid At 3 AM MST New Years Eve Morning.

Valid At 7 AM MST New Years Eve Morning.

Valid At 5 AM MST New Years Eve Morning.





 
 A very tricky forecast tonight into tomorrow morning for the local area. As the upper-level storm approaches from the west tonight, and a colder airmass settles in, combined with the continued feed of mid-high level moisture from the southwest, a mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow will be possible across the eastern and southeastern plains, and parts of west Texas.

 A cold front will be poised to enter the southeastern plains tomorrow. I just took a quick look at the latest RUC short range model forecast, and its hinting that the approaching upper-level storm from the west may try and dig a little further south than what the models are forecasting.

Should the arrival of the colder airmass be faster than what is currently forecast, along with a slower and deeper storm to our west that settles a little further to the south than what is being forecast by the models, then this would give us a better shot at seeing a more widespread mix of wintry precipitation across the southeastern plains, as well as the rest of the area tonight into New Years Eve. 

So don't be too surprised to possibly see some changes to our local forecasts. Please note that the local forecasts listed below were issued at 4 AM MST this morning, and will be updated again by 4 PM MST this afternoon.
 
Current Albuquerque National Weather Service forecasts for the Roswell area are calling for a wintry mix of light rain, light freezing rain, and light snow after 11 PM MST tonight. 

Current Midland National Weather Service forecasts for the Artesia, Carlsbad areas don't give us much of a chance of seeing any precipitation tonight. Hobbs has a better chance of seeing some precipitation.

Current El Paso National Weather Service forecasts for the Cloudcroft area are calling for around 1" - 3" of snow across the southern Sacramento mountains, maybe a little more over the higher elevations.

Current Albuquerque National Weather Service forecasts for the Ruidoso area are calling for around 1" of snow with higher totals possible across the higher peaks.

Note: If we do end up getting a more widespread mix of freezing rain and snow, then some of our local roadways may be a mess later tonight into tomorrow morning. For the very latest on our local roadways as well as across New Mexico please visit this link.  

I'm waiting for this mornings run of the European (ECMWF), Canadian (CMC), and U.S. GFS models to come in before I post anything on what the New Years week is shaping up to look like. The models continue to struggle with this forecast...I'm not surprised by this in the least, so the forecast waters remain pretty muddy.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction! 

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