Seasons First Arctic Outbreak Next Week.

- Thursday, November 06, 2014

Monday, Nov 10, 2014.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS Temp Anomaly Forecast.

Valid @ 11 AM MST Monday, Nov 10, 2014.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS Temp Forecast.

Valid @ 11 AM MST Monday, Nov 10, 2014.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS MSLP Forecast.

Valid @ 11 AM MST Monday, Nov 10, 2014.

Tuesday, Nov 11, 2014.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS Temp Anomaly Forecast.

Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday, Nov 11, 2014.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS Temp Forecast.

Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday, Nov 11, 2014.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS MSLP Forecast.

Valid @ 11 AM MST Tuesday, Nov 11, 2014.

Wednesday, Nov 12, 2014.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS Temp Anomaly Forecast.

Valid @ 11 AM MST Wednesday, Nov 12, 2014.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS Temp Forecast.

Valid @ 11 AM MST Wednesday, Nov 12, 2014.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS MSLP Forecast.

Valid @ 11 AM MST Wednesday, Nov 12, 2014.

Thursday, Nov 13, 2014.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS Temp Anomaly Forecast.

Valid @ 11 AM MST Thursday, Nov 13, 2014.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS Temp Forecast.

Valid @ 11 AM MST Thursday, Nov 13, 2014.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS MSLP Forecast.

Valid @ 11 AM MST Thursday, Nov 13, 2014.

Seasons First Arctic Outbreak.

Check out Dr. Ryan Mau's ECMWF MLSP thoughts/forecast

concerning "Nuri" Saturday night: via his Twitter page:

Dr. Maue is the creator of WeatherBell's model graphics and web page.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS 500 MB Forecast.

Valid @ 11 AM MST Thursday, Nov 13, 2014.

A significant outbreak of arctic air will blast southward into the northern U.S. late Saturday and Sunday. Remnants of Typhoon Nuri will bomb out (undergo explosive deepening in the Bearing Sea) today and tomorrow. Eventually this potentially historic storm will help to pump up a massive ridge of high pressure over the West Coast northward into the Northwestern Territories of Canada.

So what does all of this have to do with our weather? Perhaps one of the strongest outbreaks of arctic air this early in the season will invade the northern U.S. Sunday. Some meteorologists think this arctic airmass could be the coldest this early in the season since 1976. This unusually cold arctic airmass will then work its way southward next week. Most of next week looks very cold for much of the country east of the Rockies. Forecast models indicate that this cold mass of air may even plunge deep into Mexico.

Just how cold will we get here in southeastern New Mexico and nearby areas next week? Our temperautres may be some 20-40 degrees below normal if the models are correct. The arctic cold front will arrive in the area on Monday. I wouldn't be surprised to see our daytime highs in the 30's with lows eventually dropping down into the teens and twenties next week. Too early to know for sure just how cold it will get but we do appear to be headed to the deep freeze next week. This of course means our first freeze and maybe even some snow?

A Look Back At The Rain This Week.

Remnant moisture associated with Eastern Pacific Hurricane Vance was injected into the area this week. A cold front also moved southward into the area and thus the setup for an overrunning event which produced heavy rainfall totals locally...especially by November standards.

Selected Local Rainfall Totals:

Sierra Blanca Snotel 3.90"

Bonito Lake Runnels Stable 3.53"

Hobbs KM5BS 1.99"

Hobbs CoCoRaHS 8.0 SSE 1.83"

Sunspot Sacramento Peak 1.60"

Tatum Climate Station 1.58"

Artesia Climate Station 1.58"

Carlsbad Caverns Bat Draw Raws 1.33"

Cloudcroft Climate Station 1.32"

Ruidoso Smokey Bear Raws 1.21"

Lovington CoCoRaHS 0.9 NNW 1.20"

Ruidoso CoCoRaHS 1.7 WNW 1.14"