Warm & Windy Today - Arctic Cold Front Arrives Late Tonight.

Warm & Windy Today.

Valid @ 5 PM MST This Afternoon.

GFS Max Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST This Afternoon.

Today will be rather warm but we are not expected to set any new daily high temperature records here in southeastern New Mexico. Our forecast high temps today range from the upper 70's to the mid 80's (77 in Hobbs, 84 in Carlsbad). These temperatures will be some 10-15 degrees above normal. Record high temperatures for today include: Carlsbad 93 in 1902, Artesia 87 in 1927, Roswell 84 in 1927, Hobbs 83 in 1964, Ruidoso 75 in 1973, Elk 78 in 1927, and Cloudcroft 65 in 2005. 

A deepening surface low over northwestern Texas today will help to crank up the wind machine. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains today into tonight for westerly winds increasing to 35-55G75 mph. A Wind Advisory is also in effect for Eddy, Lincoln, and Otero Counties, and parts of west Texas and southern New Mexico today for southwesterly winds increasing to 25-35G50-55 mph. There may also be some localized areas of blowing dust this afternoon, especially over and near freshly exposed or plowed farmlands, fields, lots, and construction sites.

Turning Colder & Windy Tonight Into Tuesday.

Temperature Anomaly Forecast Valid @ 5 AM MST Tuesday.

Low Temperature Forecast @ 11 AM MST Tuesday.

By sunset tonight a strong arctic cold front will be nosing into northeastern New Mexico. Note the temperatures below zero across the northern states behind the front on the map above. Much colder air will continue to work its way southward down the eastern plains of New Mexico tonight into early Tuesday morning. The arctic cold front will arrive in southeastern New Mexico before sunrise Tuesday morning. 

Westerly winds will shift around to the north and northeast as the arctic cold front enters the local area later tonight into tomorrow morning. These winds will gust up to 30 mph or a little higher making for a raw morning tomorrow. Temperatures will dip down into the 30's to near 40 Tuesday morning. Current forecasts call for our high temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday to be in the 50's. This may be a little too warm especially if the arctic cold front arrives sooner than is currently being forecast. Last night's run of the European model (ECMWF) has our highs on Tuesday near 50, and our highs on Wednesday in the upper 30's to mid 40's. Personally I think this model will be closer to being correct. 

First Widespread Freeze Thursday Morning.

A few isolated spots in southeastern New Mexico have already had a light frost/freeze. But the rest of us have not. Some of us may have our first freeze Wednesday morning. A widespread freeze is forecast for Thursday morning. Our high temperatures on Thursday may not get out of the 30's. 

Things Get Crazy By Late Next Weekend.

ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Sunday, Nov 16, 2014.

ECMWF Low Temp Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Monday, Nov 17, 2014.

ECMWF Snow Depth Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Monday, Nov 17, 2014.

Model mayhem continues and will continue this week concerning what's going to happen over the next week. Again I picked the European model (ECMWF Graphics Above) as the worst case scenario by late next weekend into Monday the 17th. We all know that the models don't have a good track record with storms a week to ten days out most of the time. However the European has been stubborn with its forecast of a closed 500 millibar low (at 18,000' MSL) dropping southward into south-central New Mexico next weekend. 

Take a look at the forecast snowfall totals and the forecast low temperatures by next Monday. Single digit temperatures for southeastern New Mexico lows next Monday morning?  Along with 4" - 6" snowfalls. Wow!. Its happened before. There have been several storms over the years that have dropped heavy snow, and produced some very cold temperatures across the local area over the last couple of weeks of November. Case in point below.

November 28th, 29th 1976-

Roswell Low Temp 4.
Artesia Low Temp -10F With 4.0" Of Snowfall.
Carlsbad Low Temp 0F With 1.3" Of Snowfall.
Hobbs Low Temp 4F With 6.0" Of Snowfall.
Tatum Low Temp 1F.
Ruidoso Low Temp -19F With 14.0" Of Snowfall

Historical Climate Data Is Courtesy Of:

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