Fall Storm Brings Changes - T-Storms & Mtn Snows.

This Mornings 12Z/6 AM MDT GFS 500 MB Analysis.

Beech Mountain, N.C. 

Notice the deep 500 millibar (18,000' MSL) low centered over Georgia and South Carolina this morning. This cold upper-level storm is producing snowfall in parts of western North Carolina, western Virginia, and eastern Tennessee (in the higher elevations of the Appalachian Mountains). An early prelude to winter. For all of the latest National Weather Service Watches and Warnings concerning this storm please click on this link

Meanwhile In New Mexico.

12Z/6 AM MDT GFS 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Sunday, Nov 2, 2014.

12Z/6 AM MDT GFS 500 MB Forecast.

Valid @ 5 AM MST Monday, Nov 3, 2014.

12Z/6 AM MDT GFS 500 MB Forecast.

Valid @ 5 AM MST Tuesday, Nov 4, 2014.

This Mornings 12Z/6 AM MDT GFS Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Wednesday, Nov 5, 2014.

Early this morning a strong upper-level trough of  low pressure is dropping southward into southern California. By Tuesday morning this upper level storm will be in the process of closing off just to the southwest of New Mexico in northwestern Mexico. 

Big changes in New Mexico's weather will commence beginning this afternoon and continuing into the middle of next week. Scattered rains showers and thunderstorms will break out across the lower elevations of the state, while snow will fall over parts of  the higher elevations of western and northern New Mexico Sunday night into Monday. Snow levels will start out at around 10,000' on Sunday and will  lower to around 6,500' on Monday. 

Southeastern New Mexico will see an increase in rain shower and thunderstorm activity starting Sunday and continuing into Tuesday. Some thunderstorms may be capable of producing small hail and gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Our high temperatures today into Monday will range from the mid 70's to near 80. 

A cold front will sweep across the area Monday evening dropping our daytime highs on Tuesday into the 60's. The models are offering different forecast solutions for this storm so just how much rain falls is still in question. I expect that the higher elevations of the Sacramento and Capitan Mountains may get at least a dusting of snow out of this storm...if not a couple of inches in the highest elevations. 

If the storm clears out on Tuesday we will see our low temperatures drop down into the mid 30's by sunrise Wednesday morning. So if this happens some of the normally colder rural areas of the southeastern plains could possible see their first freeze of the season. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction! 

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