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It Will Feel More Like Late October In SE NM Today Than Late May.

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Temperatures @ 10 AM MDT This Morning.

RAP Forecast Temperatures @ 5 PM MDT This Afternoon.

Brrrrrrrrrrrr...its flat out chilly out there this morning. Currently my thermometer says its 53°F here at our home in Carlsbad, NM. Current NWS forecasts call for high temps to day in the upper 50's to low 60's across the southeastern plains. So this means that we have a chance of tying or breaking our record low-max temps for the date today. Which are listed below:

Roswell 62°F in 1900
Artesia 55°F in 2003
Carlsbad 55°F in 2003
Hobbs 64°F in 1943

Overcast skies with areas of fog and light drizzle/mist encompass the local area this morning. Areas of rain and scattered thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon into tonight. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in some spots with storm totals approaching or exceeding 1.00" by Friday night. 

Severe Weather In SE NM Friday?

RAP 500 MB Analysis @ 9 AM MDT This Morning.

NWS SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook.
Valid For Friday, May 22, 2015. 

As a stronger upper level disturbance rotates northeastward towards the local area this afternoon and evening we should see an increase in rain and scattered thunderstorms. Currently it does not appear that these storms will become severe here in SE NM.

This will not be the case on Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has already placed SE NM and parts of W TX in the Slight Risk Category for Severe Thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. So heads up folks!

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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25th Anniversary Of The Carlsbad, NM (May 31, 1991) Tornado Coming Up.

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Blog Updated @ 3:11 PM MDT. Click On The Photos & Newspaper Articles To Enlarge Them. On May 31, 1991 at 8:39 PM MDT a then rated (F-2 Tornado touched down 2.1 miles southeast of the Carlsbad Airport (as the crow flies) just southwest of the end of Wagonwheel Rd. A day and time that many local residents will never forget. Newspaper articles at the time reported conflicting reports (understandably so) concerning the damage, injuries, and the time of the tornado. To many residents this was a shock...not something that we are used to seeing or dealing with.  The tornado touched down right at dusk. Cass Hernandez who was the Carlsbad Airport Security Guard at the time observed the tornado 2 miles southeast of the Airport as power flashes occurred from the tornado destroying power lines and transformers. It was eerie looking contrasted with the darkness and power flashes but there was no mistaking what was happening. The Tornado's path is circled in red...
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Winter Storm Watches & Warnings Are In Effect - Click On This Link For Additional Details. U.S. GFS Storm Total Snowfall Forecast. Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday. Today's (Sunday) noon mdt run of the GFS forecast model is just plain nuts. Its trend has been to produce heavier snowfall totals and aerial coverages with each new run over the past day. This has me worried. 19" for Roswell, 12" for Artesia, 15" for Clovis, 28" for the Fort Sumner area, and 17" for Corona! This would be wild in the dead of winter but is absolutely unheard of in the part of the world in October! The last time we saw something like this come to pass was the Blizzard of December 27, 28, 29th, 2015. Will history repeats itself? I hope not but I will admit that I am worried. My feeling is that we will see snowfall accumulations of around 6" to 12" in SE NM and 6" to 18" in the mountains.  GFS Freezing Rain Accumulation Forecast. Valid Tonight Through PM MDT Wednes...
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My Precipitation Totals - 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad

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My Snowfall Totals - 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

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This blog and its contents are for informational purposes only! Always have multiple sources of information available to rely upon during severe weather. Do not rely solely on the Internet. Be weather-aware, plan ahead, have a backup plan, and be ready to act before severe weather strikes your location.