Let's Just Skip Fall & Head Straight Into Winter Next Monday!

October 18, 2020.
Cloudcroft, New Mexico Aspens.

Another summer-like day here in Southeastern New Mexico as well as the rest of the state and nearby areas. My high temp here at our home in Carlsbad was a balmy 92º with a low this morning of 48º compared to a seasonal average for the date of 77º/46º. Enjoy because this coming to an abrupt end very soon.

Here Comes Our First Winter Storm.

Our next backdoor cold front (southward and westward-moving) is due early Friday morning. Thursday will see highs near 90º once again. But Friday's highs will only be in the mid 60's to near 70º. Saturday and Sunday will see highs in the mid to upper 80's locally. Then the fun begins Monday.

Unusually Strong & Cold Winter Storm.

Valid At 6 AM MDT.
 Tuesday, Oct 27, 2020.

A powerful, deep, and cold mid-upper level closed or cutoff low is forecast to dig southeastward in the Four Corners Region Monday into Wednesday. Model mayhem continues in trying to get the finer details of this winter storm correct. The European (depicted above) is the slower, deeper, and farther west forecast. The GFS is the coldest with the most snow for New Mexico and West Texas. 


GFS Forecast Temperature Anomalies.


GFS Forecast Temperature Anomalies.



Low Temperatures.


A very strong and unusually cold arctic backdoor cold front is forecast to drop southward and westward into New Mexico on Monday. Brining not only the coldest weather of the season but record cold to the state should the GFS model forecasts pan out.

Not just daily record lows next Wednesday but possibly near to or all-time monthly lows in some areas for October. highs Monday into Wednesday are forecast to drop down to 30º to 40º below normal behind the arctic cold front. Highs in SE NM and parts of W TX may not get above freezing on Tuesday. Instead of our first frost, we are going to get our first hard killing freeze.

Snow - I'm Kidding, Right?

Valid At Noon MDT.
 Monday, October 26, 2020.

GFS Storm Total Snowfall Amounts.

Valid At 6 PM MDT.
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2020.

No, actually I'm not kidding at all. It is looking more likely with time that a significant early winter storm will change New Mexico's weather rapidly from summer to winter Monday into Wednesday. For now, anyways the models are hinting at some decent snowfall and rainfall totals for many areas. This forecast will change of course between now and Monday but overall get ready for winter. Rain may even change over to a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, and even snow in Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas Monday into Tuesday. More on all of this in the coming days. Think rain ☔and snow. ⛄

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!


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