Overall little has changed concerning our incoming Major Winter Storm that will have significant impacts on the area Sunday night through Wednesday.
If anything the winter storm is forecast to slow down some and not move out of the area and into West Texas until Wednesday night. This will prolong the snow and winter impacts on the area into the middle of next week.
An unusually strong arctic cold front will invade SE NM and W Tx Sunday afternoon and evening. This after high temperatures Sunday afternoon near 90 In the local area. We will see a drastic drop in temperatures Monday and Tuesday that will be some 40 to 50 degrees below normal for this time of the year.
Highs on Monday only will be in the 30’s and maybe some 40’s.
Wind chill values in SE NM will drop down to 0 to 10 degrees from sunset Monday through noon Tuesday. Actual high temperatures on Tuesday will only be in the 20’s to near 32.
Low temperatures Tuesday morning and again Wednesday morning are currently forecast by the GFS forecast model to range from 16 to 22 in SE NM and parts of W TX.
A dangerous wintry mix of rain changing over to freezing rain, sleet, and snow will begin Monday afternoon area-wide and change over to heavy snow Monday night and continuing into early Wednesday morning.
Our roads and highways will become extremely dangerous to travel on due to the icing, heavy and drifting snows. Some of them may be impassable or closed Monday night into Wednesday morning.
Snowfall totals in SE NM and nearby W TX will range from a couple of inches to over a foot in some areas. The models are struggling with exactly where the heaviest snows will fall. Snowfall totals this high has never been observed locally this early, going back to 1894.
Heavy wet snow and freezing rain will cause damage to power lines, trees, and other utility lines. There may be power outages in our area due to this.
This incoming winter storm has the potential to be historic for this time of the year this early in the season. It has the potential for widespread major impacts area-wide for three days.
More on this Sunday afternoon.